Predicting the response of coastal wetlands of Southeastern Australia to sea-level rise

Coastal saltmarsh is an endangered ecological community in New South Wales and sea-level rise has been listed as a key threatening process. Over the previous five decades moderate rates of sea-level rise have coincided with the invasion of saltmarsh by mangrove. Surface elevation tables (SETs) were installed in 12 coastal wetlands in Southeastern Australia to establish elevation and accretion trajectories for comparisons with mangrove encroachment of saltmarsh and sea-level rise. SETs confirmed that the elevational response of wetlands is more complex than accretion alone and elevation changes may also be attributed to below-ground processes that alter the soil volume such as subsidence/compaction, groundwater volume fluctuations, and below-ground biomass changes. A simple modelling approach was employed to establish a relationship between the observed rate of mangrove encroachment of saltmarsh and relative sea-level rise, which incorporates the eustatic component of sea-level rise and changes in the marsh elevation. Increasing access to high resolution digital elevation models will enhance our capacity to predict the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise. Long-term datasets of elevation dynamics and improved understanding of the feedback mechanisms influencing marsh elevations will further enhance our modelling capacity

Coastal saltmarsh vulnerability to climate change in SE Australia

Coastal saltmarsh has been listed as an Endangered Ecological Community in New South Wales. Recent research has highlighted the importance of coastal saltmarsh as a source of nutrition for fish, a nocturnal feeding habitat for microbats, and a roosting habitat for several species of migratory shorebirds. Since European colonisation, coastal saltmarsh has been reclaimed for agricultural, residential and industrial use, and the past five decades has seen a consistent replacement of saltmarsh by mangrove throughout SE Australia. Analysis of data from the network of Surface Elevation Tables in NSW and Victoria has demonstrated a link between the replacement of saltmarsh by mangrove and relative sea-level rise. However, this is not the only potential climate change impact, given the strong inverse relationship between saltmarsh diversity and temperature in Australia. Saltmarsh species diversity increases with latitude, with temperature explaining more than 80 percent of variability in saltmarsh species numbers between bioregions. A southward translation of climatic zones in Australia would pose significant challenges to the preservation of saltmarsh diversity at a continental scale

Validation and Comparison of a Model of the Effect of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands

Models are used to project coastal wetland distribution under future sea-level rise scenarios to assist decision-making. Model validation and comparison was used to investigate error and uncertainty in the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, a readily available model with minimal validation, particularly for wetlands beyond North America. Accurate parameterisation is required to improve the performance of the model, and indeed any spatial model. Consideration of tidal attenuation further enhances model performance, particularly for coastal wetlands located within estuaries along wave-dominated coastlines. The model does not simulate vegetation changes that are known to occur, particularly when sedimentation exceeds rates of sea-level rise resulting in shoreline progradation. Model performance was reasonable over decadal timescales, decreasing as the time-scale of retrospection increased due to compounding of errors. Comparison with other deterministic models showed reasonable agreement by 2100. However, given the uncertainty of the future and the unpredictable nature of coastal wetlands, it is difficult to ascertain which model could be realistic enough to meet its intended purpose. Model validation and comparison are useful for assessing model efficacy and parameterisation, and should be applied before application of any spatially explicit model of coastal wetland response to sea-level rise

Moving from Generalisations to Specificity about Mangrove –Saltmarsh Dynamics

Spatial and temporal variability in factors influencing mangrove establishment and survival affects the distribution of mangrove, particularly near their latitudinal limit, where mangrove expansion into saltmarsh is conspicuous. In this paper the spatial variability in mangrove distribution and variability in factors influencing mangrove establishment and survival during the Quaternary period are reviewed, focusing on research at latitudinal limits in Australia and mainland USA. Despite similarities in the response of mangrove to some drivers, the expression of these drivers is both spatially and temporally variable, demonstrating the need for analyses of mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics to move beyond generalizations and incorporate regional and local-scale specificity. We propose i) that precursory recognition that ‘correlation does not mean causation’ is inadequate and assumptions, caveats, and limitations should be clearly articulated in correlative studies; ii) experimental design in manipulative experiments must also articulate the spatial and temporal scale to which the analysis is relevant; and iii) analyses that draw from a range of methods will provide greater confidence. Integrated research programs that transect spatial and temporal scales and incorporate a range of techniques are essential to improve projections. Mangrove-saltmarsh distribution research should move beyond simple models that assume equilibrium between realized and fundamental niches

Terrestrial laser scanning to quantify above-ground biomass of structurally complex coastal wetland vegetation

Above-ground biomass represents a small yet significant contributor to carbon storage in coastal wetlands. Despite this, above-ground biomass is often poorly quantified, particularly in areas where vegetation structure is complex. Traditional methods for providing accurate estimates involve harvesting vegetation to develop mangrove allometric equations and quantify saltmarsh biomass in quadrats. However broad scale application of these methods may not capture structural variability in vegetation resulting in a loss of detail and estimates with considerable uncertainty. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) collects high resolution three-dimensional point clouds capable of providing detailed structural morphology of vegetation. This study demonstrates that TLS is a suitable non-destructive method for estimating biomass of structurally complex coastal wetland vegetation. We compare volumetric models, 3-D surface reconstruction and rasterised volume, and point cloud elevation histogram modelling techniques to estimate biomass. Our results show that current volumetric modelling approaches for estimating TLS-derived biomass are comparable to traditional mangrove allometrics and saltmarsh harvesting. However, volumetric modelling approaches oversimplify vegetation structure by under-utilising the large amount of structural information provided by the point cloud. The point cloud elevation histogram model presented in this study, as an alternative to volumetric modelling, utilises all of the information within the point cloud, as opposed to sub-sampling based on specific criteria. This method is simple but highly effective for both mangrove (r 2 = 0.95) and saltmarsh (r 2 \u3e 0.92) vegetation. Our results provide evidence that application of TLS in coastal wetlands is an effective non-destructive method to accurately quantify biomass for structurally complex vegetation

Variation in seagrass biomass estimates in low and high density settings: implications for the selection of sample size

Few seagrass biomass monitoring studies have considered the adequacy of monitoring intensity in their design. Power analysis is now widely used in ecological monitoring to determine sample size (replication) and the power (probability of not making a Type II error) of the monitoring design to detect change (effect size). We investigated seasonal variation of above-ground biomass of Zostera species at Woolooware Bay, Botany Bay, NSW and Ukerebagh Channel, Tweed River, NSW to show that seagrass biomass varies significantly between sites and seasonally. By conducting preliminary power analysis at each study site we found that our sampling design would only detect 70% change at Woolooware Bay, while \u3c10% change would be detected at Ukerebagh Channel with the same intensity of sampling. We demonstrate the potential efficiency of harvesting as a means of estimating biomass in high biomass situations, where percentage cover may provide less discrimination between sampling sites

Sedimentation, elevation and marsh evolution in a southeastern Australian estuary during changing climatic conditions

Mangrove and salt marsh vertical accretion and surface elevation change was measured at Kooragang Island within the Ramsar-listed Lower Hunter estuarine wetlands in New South Wales, Australia, using surface elevation tables and marker horizons over a ten-year period. We surveyed mangrove, salt marsh and a zone of mangrove encroachment into salt marsh. The period of analysis was dominated by El Niño (drought) climatic conditions, though included a series of east coast low pressure systems and associated storms over the central coast of NSW in June 2007. The storms may have initially caused scouring of sediments in the mangrove zone, followed by significant accretion within both the mangrove and salt marsh during the six months following the storms, with most of this accretion corresponding to spring tides several months after the storms. These accretion events were not accompanied by an equivalent elevation change, and robust elevation trends over the study period in mangrove and salt marsh indicate that the storms may have had little impact on the longer-term elevation dynamics within both the mangrove and salt marsh at Kooragang Island. Elevation dynamics in these zones appear to be regulated by vertical accretion over longer time periods and modulated by hydrology at shorter temporal scales. Elevation declined in the mangrove encroachment zone despite continued vertical accretion and we propose that this discrepancy may be associated with expansion of tidal creeks near the zone of mangrove encroachment or loss of salt marsh vegetation. This pattern of encroachment is consistent with observations from sites throughout the region and may be related to climatic perturbations (El Niño Southern Oscillation) rather than directly attributed to the storms

Sandy beaches can survive sea-level rise

International audienc

Remote sensing-based assessment of mangrove ecosystems in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries: a systematic review

Mangrove forests in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are facing multiple threats from natural and anthropogenic-driven land use change stressors, contributing to altered ecosystem conditions. Remote sensing tools can be used to monitor mangroves, measure mangrove forest-and-tree-level attributes and vegetation indices at different spatial and temporal scales that allow a detailed and comprehensive understanding of these important ecosystems. Using a systematic literature approach, we reviewed 58 remote sensing-based mangrove assessment articles published from 2010 through 2022. The main objectives of the study were to examine the extent of mangrove distribution and cover, and the remotely sensed data sources used to assess mangrove forest/tree attributes. The key importance of and threats to mangroves that were specific to the region were also examined. Mangrove distribution and cover were mainly estimated from satellite images (75.2%), using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) derived from Landsat (73.3%), IKONOS (15%), Sentinel (11.7%), WorldView (10%), QuickBird (8.3%), SPOT-5 (6.7%), MODIS (5%) and others (5%) such as PlanetScope. Remotely sensed data from aerial photographs/images (6.7%), LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) (5%) and UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles)/Drones (3.3%) were the least used. Mangrove cover decreased in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait between 1996 and 2020. However, mangrove cover increased appreciably in Qatar and remained relatively stable for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the same period, which was attributed to government conservation initiatives toward expanding mangrove afforestation and restoration through direct seeding and seedling planting. The reported country-level mangrove distribution and cover change results varied between studies due to the lack of a standardized methodology, differences in satellite imagery resolution and classification approaches used. There is a need for UAV-LiDAR ground truthing to validate country-and-local-level satellite data. Urban development-driven coastal land reclamation and pollution, climate change-driven temperature and sea level rise, drought and hypersalinity from extreme evaporation are serious threats to mangrove ecosystems. Thus, we encourage the prioritization of mangrove conservation and restoration schemes to support the achievement of related UN Sustainable Development Goals (13 climate action, 14 life below water, and 15 life on land) in the GCC countries