The BGS magnetic field candidate models for the 12th generation IGRF

We describe the candidate models submitted by the British Geological Survey for the 12th generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field. These models are extracted from a spherical harmonic ‘parent model’ derived from vector and scalar magnetic field data from satellite and observatory sources. These data cover the period 2009.0 to 2014.7 and include measurements from the recently launched European Space Agency (ESA) Swarm satellite constellation. The parent model’s internal field time dependence for degrees 1 to 13 is represented by order 6 B-splines with knots at yearly intervals. The parent model’s degree 1 external field time dependence is described by periodic functions for the annual and semi-annual signals and by dependence on the 20-min Vector Magnetic Disturbance index. Signals induced by these external fields are also parameterized. Satellite data are weighted by spatial density and by two different noise estimators: (a) by standard deviation along segments of the satellite track and (b) a larger-scale noise estimator defined in terms of a measure of vector activity at the geographically closest magnetic observatories to the sample point. Forecasting of the magnetic field secular variation beyond the span of data is by advection of the main field using core surface flows

Coupled evolution of BrOx-ClOx-HOx-NOx chemistry during bromine-catalyzed ozone depletion events in the arctic boundary layer

Extensive chemical characterization of ozone (O3) depletion events in the Arctic boundary layer during the TOPSE aircraft mission in March–May 2000 enables analysis of the coupled chemical evolution of bromine (BrOx), chlorine (ClOx), hydrogen oxide (HOx) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) radicals during these events. We project the TOPSE observations onto an O3 chemical coordinate to construct a chronology of radical chemistry during O3 depletion events, and we compare this chronology to results from a photochemical model simulation. Comparison of observed trends in ethyne (oxidized by Br) and ethane (oxidized by Cl) indicates that ClOxchemistry is only active during the early stage of O3 depletion (O3 \u3e 10 ppbv). We attribute this result to the suppression of BrCl regeneration as O3 decreases. Formaldehyde and peroxy radical concentrations decline by factors of 4 and 2 respectively during O3 depletion and we explain both trends on the basis of the reaction of CH2O with Br. Observed NOx concentrations decline abruptly in the early stages of O3 depletion and recover as O3 drops below 10 ppbv. We attribute the initial decline to BrNO3 hydrolysis in aerosol, and the subsequent recovery to suppression of BrNO3 formation as O3 drops. Under halogen-free conditions we find that HNO4 heterogeneous chemistry could provide a major NOx sink not included in standard models. Halogen radical chemistry in the model can produce under realistic conditions an oscillatory system with a period of 3 days, which we believe is the fastest oscillation ever reported for a chemical system in the atmosphere

Sources and Chemistry of NOₓ in the Upper Troposphere Over the United States

The origin of NOx in the upper troposphere over the central United States is examined using aircraft observations obtained during the SUCCESS campaign in April–May of 1996. Correlations between NOy (sum of NOx and its oxidation products) and CO at 8–12 km altitude indicate that NOx originates primarily from convective transport of polluted boundary layer air. Lightning and aircraft emissions appear to be only minor sources of NOx. Chemical steady state model calculations constrained by local observations of NO underestimate the measured NOx/NOy concentration ratio at 8–12 km altitude by a factor of two on average. The magnitude of the underestimate is correlated with concentrations of condensation nuclei, which we take as a proxy for the age of air in the upper troposphere. We conclude that the NOx/NOy ratio is maintained above chemical steady state by frequent convective injections of fresh NOx from the polluted boundary layer and by the long lifetime of NOx in the upper troposphere (5–10 days). In contrast to previous studies, we find no evidence for fast heterogeneous recycling from HNO3 to NOx in the upper troposphere

Steady state free radical budgets and ozone photochemistry during TOPSE

A steady state model, constrained by a number of measured quantities, was used to derive peroxy radical levels for the conditions of the Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox (TOPSE) campaign. The analysis is made using data collected aboard the NCAR/NSF C-130 aircraft from February through May 2000 at latitudes from 40° to 85°N, and at altitudes from the surface to 7.6 km. HO2 + RO2 radical concentrations were measured during the experiment, which are compared with model results over the domain of the study showing good agreement on the average. Average measurement/model ratios are 1.04 (σ = 0.73) and 0.96 (σ = 0.52) for the MLB and HLB, respectively. Budgets of total peroxy radical levels as well as of individual free radical members were constructed, which reveal interesting differences compared to studies at lower latitudes. The midlatitude part of the study region is a significant net source of ozone, while the high latitudes constitute a small net sink leading to the hypothesis that transport from the middle latitudes can explain the observed increase in ozone in the high latitudes. Radical reservoir species concentrations are modeled and compared with the observations. For most conditions, the model does a good job of reproducing the formaldehyde observations, but the peroxide observations are significantly less than steady state for this study. Photostationary state (PSS) derived total peroxy radical levels and NO/NO2ratios are compared with the measurements and the model; PSS-derived results are higher than observations or the steady state model at low NO concentrations

Ozone depletion events observed in the high latitude surface layer during the TOPSE aircraft program

During the Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox (TOPSE) aircraft program, ozone depletion events (ODEs) in the high latitude surface layer were investigated using lidar and in situ instruments. Flight legs of 100 km or longer distance were flown 32 times at 30 m altitude over a variety of regions north of 58° between early February and late May 2000. ODEs were found on each flight over the Arctic Ocean but their occurrence was rare at more southern latitudes. However, large area events with depletion to over 2 km altitude in one case were found as far south as Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay and as late as 22 May. There is good evidence that these more southern events did not form in situ but were the result of export of ozone-depleted air from the surface layer of the Arctic Ocean. Surprisingly, relatively intact transport of ODEs occurred over distances of 900–2000 km and in some cases over rough terrain. Accumulation of constituents in the frozen surface over the dark winter period cannot be a strong prerequisite of ozone depletion since latitudes south of the Arctic Ocean would also experience a long dark period. Some process unique to the Arctic Ocean surface or its coastal regions remains unidentified for the release of ozone-depleting halogens. There was no correspondence between coarse surface features such as solid ice/snow, open leads, or polynyas with the occurrence of or intensity of ozone depletion over the Arctic or subarctic regions. Depletion events also occurred in the absence of long-range transport of relatively fresh “pollution” within the high latitude surface layer, at least in spring 2000. Direct measurements of halogen radicals were not made. However, the flights do provide detailed information on the vertical structure of the surface layer and, during the constant 30 m altitude legs, measurements of a variety of constituents including hydroxyl and peroxy radicals. A summary of the behavior of these constituents is made. The measurements were consistent with a source of formaldehyde from the snow/ice surface. Median NOx in the surface layer was 15 pptv or less, suggesting that surface emissions were substantially converted to reservoir constituents by 30 m altitude and that ozone production rates were small (0.15–1.5 ppbv/d) at this altitude. Peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) was by far the major constituent of NOy in the surface layer independent of the ozone mixing ratio

Simulating the one‐dimensional structure of Titan's upper atmosphere: 1. Formulation of the Titan Global Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Model and benchmark simulations

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94638/1/jgre2819.pd

Simulating the one‐dimensional structure of Titan's upper atmosphere: 3. Mechanisms determining methane escape

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94596/1/jgre2822.pd

Steady state free radical budgets and ozone photochemistry during TOPSE

A steady state model, constrained by a number of measured quantities, was used to derive peroxy radical levels for the conditions of the Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox (TOPSE) campaign. The analysis is made using data collected aboard the NCAR/NSF C‐130 aircraft from February through May 2000 at latitudes from 40° to 85°N, and at altitudes from the surface to 7.6 km. HO2 + RO2 radical concentrations were measured during the experiment, which are compared with model results over the domain of the study showing good agreement on the average. Average measurement/model ratios are 1.04 (σ = 0.73) and 0.96 (σ = 0.52) for the MLB and HLB, respectively. Budgets of total peroxy radical levels as well as of individual free radical members were constructed, which reveal interesting differences compared to studies at lower latitudes. The midlatitude part of the study region is a significant net source of ozone, while the high latitudes constitute a small net sink leading to the hypothesis that transport from the middle latitudes can explain the observed increase in ozone in the high latitudes. Radical reservoir species concentrations are modeled and compared with the observations. For most conditions, the model does a good job of reproducing the formaldehyde observations, but the peroxide observations are significantly less than steady state for this study. Photostationary state (PSS) derived total peroxy radical levels and NO/NO2 ratios are compared with the measurements and the model; PSS‐derived results are higher than observations or the steady state model at low NO concentrations

Ozone, aerosol, potential vorticity, and trace gas trends observed at high‐latitudes over North America from February to May 2000

Ozone (O3) and aerosol scattering ratio profiles were obtained from airborne lidar measurements on thirty‐eight flights over seven deployments covering the latitudes of 40°–85°N between 4 February and 23 May 2000 as part of the Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox (TOPSE) field experiment. Each deployment started from Broomfield, Colorado, with bases in Churchill, Canada, and on most deployments, Thule Air Base, Greenland. Nadir and zenith lidar O3 measurements were combined with in situ O3 measurements to produce vertically continuous O3 profiles from near the surface to above the tropopause. Potential vorticity (PV) distributions along the flight track were obtained from several different meteorological analyses. Ozone, aerosol, and PV distributions were used together to identify the presence of pollution plumes and stratospheric intrusions. Ozone was found to increase in the middle free troposphere (4–6 km) at high latitudes (60°–85°N) by an average of 4.6 ppbv/mo (parts per billion by volume per month) from about 54 ppbv in early February to over 72 ppbv in mid‐May. The average aerosol scattering ratios at 1064 nm in the same region increased rapidly at an average rate of 0.36/mo from about 0.38 to over 1.7. Ozone and aerosol scattering were highly correlated over the entire field experiment, and PV and beryllium (7Be) showed no significant positive trend over the same period. The primary cause of the observed O3 increase in the mid troposphere at high latitudes was determined to be the photochemical production of O3 in pollution plumes with less than 20% of the increase from stratospherically‐derived O3

Comparison of predictive estimates of high‐latitude electrodynamics with observations of global‐scale Birkeland currents

Two of the geomagnetic storms for the Space Weather Prediction Center Geospace Environment Modeling challenge occurred after data were first acquired by the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE). We compare Birkeland currents from AMPERE with predictions from four models for the 4–5 April 2010 and 5–6 August 2011 storms. The four models are the Weimer (2005b) field‐aligned current statistical model, the Lyon‐Fedder‐Mobarry magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, the Open Global Geospace Circulation Model MHD simulation, and the Space Weather Modeling Framework MHD simulation. The MHD simulations were run as described in Pulkkinen et al. (2013) and the results obtained from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. The total radial Birkeland current, ITotal, and the distribution of radial current density, Jr, for all models are compared with AMPERE results. While the total currents are well correlated, the quantitative agreement varies considerably. The Jr distributions reveal discrepancies between the models and observations related to the latitude distribution, morphologies, and lack of nightside current systems in the models. The results motivate enhancing the simulations first by increasing the simulation resolution and then by examining the relative merits of implementing more sophisticated ionospheric conductance models, including ionospheric outflows or other omitted physical processes. Some aspects of the system, including substorm timing and location, may remain challenging to simulate, implying a continuing need for real‐time specification.Key PointsPresents the first comparison between observed field‐aligned currents and models previously evaluated for space weather operational useThe model and observed integrated currents are well correlated, but the ratio between them ranges from 1/3 to 3The 2‐D current densities are weakly correlated with observations implying significant areas for improvements in the modelsPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136469/1/swe20415_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136469/2/swe20415.pd