Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift.

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well characterized, but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses, on the basis of analyses of 9,604 haemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000 to 2012. Whereas genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across several seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with East and Southeast Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller, less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as probable drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology, and human behaviour.T.B. was supported by a Newton International Fellowship from the Royal Society and through NIH U54 GM111274. S.R. was supported by MRC (UK, Project MR/J008761/1), Wellcome Trust (UK, Project 093488/Z/10/Z), Fogarty International Centre (USA, R01 TW008246‐01), DHS (USA, RAPIDD program), NIGMS (USA, MIDAS U01 GM110721‐01) and NIHR (UK, Health Protection Research Unit funding). The Melbourne WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza was supported by the Australian Government Department of Health and thanks N. Komadina and Y.‐M. Deng. The Atlanta WHO Collaborating Center for Surveillance, Epidemiology and Control of Influenza was supported by the U.S. Department of 13 Health and Human Services. NIV thanks A.C. Mishra, M. Chawla‐Sarkar, A.M. Abraham, D. Biswas, S. Shrikhande, AnuKumar B, and A. Jain. Influenza surveillance in India was expanded, in part, through US Cooperative Agreements (5U50C1024407 and U51IP000333) and by the Indian Council of Medical Research. M.A.S. was supported through NSF DMS 1264153 and NIH R01 AI 107034. Work of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza at the MRC National Institute for Medical Research was supported by U117512723. P.L., A.R. & M.A.S were supported by EU Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007‐2013] under Grant Agreement no. 278433-­‐PREDEMICS and ERC Grant agreement no. 260864. C.A.R. was supported by a University Research Fellowship from the Royal Society.This is the author accepted manuscript. It is currently under infinite embargo pending publication of the final version

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

Trade-offs among planned versus performed activity patterns

This paper focuses on the development of a methodology to identify the latent factors leading to changes in the planned itineraries of travellers that result in their actual activity patterns. Specifically, we propose a way to utilise patterns of activities established by individuals across multiple days to generate possible alternative actions by these individuals when faced with conditions that produce a discrepancy between performed and planned patterns on a particular day. The choice alternatives, which are unobserved, are inferred by rules applied to comprehensive multiday data collected in Belgium, consisting of information regarding planned activity itineraries, performed activity/travel diaries, and demographics of travellers. These data are utilised to analyse and explore the underlying reasons preventing individuals from performing their planned activities on a given day, and to identify the influential parameters that lead individuals to trade their planned patterns with those actually performed. Using multiday data, we generate all possible combinations of categories of activities – mandatory, maintenance, discretionary, and pickup/drop off activities – that can form patterns for individuals. Under the assumption that the performed patterns have the closest utility to the planned patterns, we estimate the latent factors that influence travellers’ time use behaviour using a multinomial probit choice structure in which the covariance structure of the choice alternatives is specified in terms of the overlap in activities. We further identify the ‘costs’ associated with making changes in planned agenda (replacing, inserting, or deleting an activity). These penalty values are estimated using ‘Parallel Genetic Algorithm’, where the fitness function is the likelihood function estimated under the multinomial choice model structure. The results show that individuals’ mobility decisions related to mandatory activities are more robust than those associated with their non-mandatory counterparts

Refueling hydrogen fuel cell vehicles with 68 proposed refueling stations in California: Measuring deviations from daily travel patterns

This paper examines the deviation of refueling a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle with limited opportunity provided by the 68 proposed stations in California. A refueling trip is inserted to reported travel patterns in early hydrogen adoption community clusters and the best and worst case insertions are analyzed. Based on these results, the 68 refueling stations provide an average of 2.5 and 9.6 min deviation for the best and the worst cases. These numbers are comparable to currently observed gasoline station deviation, and we conclude that these stations provide sufficient accessibility to residents in the target areas. © 2013, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserver

Systematic planning to optimize investments in hydrogen infrastructure deployment

The introduction of hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) to gradually replace gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles can provide environment and energy security benefits. The deployment of hydrogen fueling infrastructure to support the demonstration and commercialization of FCVs remains a critical barrier to transitioning to hydrogen as a transportation fuel. This study utilizes an engineering methodology referred to as the Spatially and Temporally Resolved Energy and Environment Tool (STREET) to demonstrate how systematic planning can optimize early investments in hydrogen infrastructure in a way that supports and encourages growth in the deployment of FCVs while ensuring that the associated environment and energy security benefits are fully realized. Specifically, a case study is performed for the City of Irvine, California - a target area for FCV deployment - to determine the optimized number and location of hydrogen fueling stations required to provide a bridge to FCV commercialization, the preferred rollout strategy for those stations, and the environmental impact associated with three near-term scenarios for hydrogen production and distribution associated with local and regional sources of hydrogen available to the City. Furthermore, because the State of California has adopted legislation imposing environmental standards for hydrogen production, results of the environmental impact assessment for hydrogen production and distribution scenarios are measured against the California standards. The results show that significantly fewer hydrogen fueling stations are required to provide comparable service to the existing gasoline infrastructure, and that key community statistics are needed to inform the preferred rollout strategy for the stations. Well-to-wheel (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, urban criteria pollutants, energy use, and water use associated with hydrogen and FCVs can be significantly reduced in comparison to the average parc of gasoline vehicles regardless of whether hydrogen is produced and distributed with an emphasis on conventional resources (e.g., natural gas), or on local, renewable resources. An emphasis on local renewable resources to produce hydrogen further reduces emissions, energy use, and water use associated with hydrogen and FCVs compared to an emphasis on conventional resources. All three hydrogen production and distribution scenarios considered in the study meet California's standards for well-to-wheel GHG emissions, and well-to-tank emissions of urban ROG and NOX. Two of the three scenarios also meet California's standard that 33% of hydrogen must be produced from renewable feedstocks. Overall, systematic planning optimizes both the economic and environmental impact associated with the deployment of hydrogen infrastructure and FCVs. © 2010 Professor T. Nejat Veziroglu

Projecting full build-out environmental impacts and roll-out strategies associated with viable hydrogen fueling infrastructure strategies

A transition from gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) is likely to emerge as a major component of the strategy to meet future greenhouse gas reduction, air quality, fuel independence, and energy security goals. Advanced infrastructure planning can minimize the cost of hydrogen infrastructure while assuring that energy and environment benefits are achieved. This study presents a comprehensive advanced planning methodology for the deployment of hydrogen infrastructure, and applies the methodology to delineate fully built-out infrastructure strategies, assess the associated energy and environment impacts, facilitate the identification of an optimal infrastructure roll-out strategy, and identify the potential for renewable hydrogen feedstocks. The South Coast Air Basin of California, targeted by automobile manufacturers for the first regional commercial deployment of FCEVs, is the focus for the study. The following insights result from the application of the methodology:Compared to current gasoline stations, only 11%-14% of the number of hydrogen fueling stations can provide comparable accessibility to drivers in a targeted region.To meet reasonable capacity demand for hydrogen fueling, approximately 30% the number of hydrogen stations are required compared to current gasoline stations.Replacing gasoline vehicles with hydrogen FCEVs has the potential to (1) reduce the emission of greenhouse gases by more than 80%, reduce energy requirements by 42%, and virtually eliminate petroleum consumption from the passenger vehicle sector, and (2) significantly reduce urban concentrations of ozone and PM2.5.Existing sources of biomethane in the California South Coast Air Basin can provide up to 30% of the hydrogen fueling demand for a fully built-out hydrogen FCEV scenario.A step-wise transition of judiciously located existing gasoline stations to dispense and accommodate the increasing demand for hydrogen addresses proactively key infrastructure deployment challenges including a viable business model, zoning, permitting, and public acceptance. © 2011, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Projecting full build-out environmental impacts and roll-out strategies associated with viable hydrogen fueling infrastructure strategies

A transition from gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) is likely to emerge as a major component of the strategy to meet future greenhouse gas reduction, air quality, fuel independence, and energy security goals. Advanced infrastructure planning can minimize the cost of hydrogen infrastructure while assuring that energy and environment benefits are achieved. This study presents a comprehensive advanced planning methodology for the deployment of hydrogen infrastructure, and applies the methodology to delineate fully built-out infrastructure strategies, assess the associated energy and environment impacts, facilitate the identification of an optimal infrastructure roll-out strategy, and identify the potential for renewable hydrogen feedstocks. The South Coast Air Basin of California, targeted by automobile manufacturers for the first regional commercial deployment of FCEVs, is the focus for the study. The following insights result from the application of the methodology:Compared to current gasoline stations, only 11%-14% of the number of hydrogen fueling stations can provide comparable accessibility to drivers in a targeted region.To meet reasonable capacity demand for hydrogen fueling, approximately 30% the number of hydrogen stations are required compared to current gasoline stations.Replacing gasoline vehicles with hydrogen FCEVs has the potential to (1) reduce the emission of greenhouse gases by more than 80%, reduce energy requirements by 42%, and virtually eliminate petroleum consumption from the passenger vehicle sector, and (2) significantly reduce urban concentrations of ozone and PM2.5.Existing sources of biomethane in the California South Coast Air Basin can provide up to 30% of the hydrogen fueling demand for a fully built-out hydrogen FCEV scenario.A step-wise transition of judiciously located existing gasoline stations to dispense and accommodate the increasing demand for hydrogen addresses proactively key infrastructure deployment challenges including a viable business model, zoning, permitting, and public acceptance. © 2011, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved