Dog ecology and demography in Antananarivo, 2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rabies is a widespread disease in African domestic dogs and a serious public health problem in developing countries. Canine rabies became established in Africa during the 20th century, coinciding with ecologic changes that favored its emergence in canids.</p> <p>This paper reports the results of a cross-sectional study of dog ecology in the Antananarivo urban community in Madagascar.</p> <p>A questionnaire survey of 1541 households was conducted in Antananarivo from October 2007 to January 2008. The study addressed both owned and unowned dogs. Various aspects of dog ecology were determined, including size of dog population, relationship between dogs and humans, rabies vaccination.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Dog ownership was common, with 79.6 to 94.1% (mean 88.9%) of households in the six arrondissements owning dogs. The mean owned dog to person ratio was 1 dog per 4.5 persons and differed between arrondissements (administrative districts), with ratios of 1:6.0 in the first arrondissement, 1:3.2 persons in the 2^nd, 1:4.8 in the 3^rd, 1:5.2 in the 4^th, 1:5.6 in the 5^thand 1:4.4 in the 6^tharrondissement. Overall, there were more male dogs (61.3%) and the male/female sex ratio was estimated to be 1.52; however, mature females were more likely than males to be unowned (OR: 1.93, CI 95%; 1.39<OR<2.69). Most (79.1%) owned dogs were never restricted and roamed freely to forage for food and mix with other dogs. Only a small proportion of dogs (11.7%) were fed with commercial dog food. Only 7.2% of owned dogs had certificates confirming vaccination against rabies. The proportion of vaccinated dogs varied widely between arrondissements (3.3% to 17.5%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Antananarivo has a higher density of dogs than many other urban areas in Africa. The dog population is unrestricted and inadequately vaccinated against rabies. This analysis of the dog population will enable targeted planning of rabies control efforts.</p

Epidemiologic Features of Four Successive Annual Outbreaks of Bubonic Plague in Mahajanga, Madagascar

From 1995 to 1998, outbreaks of bubonic plague occurred annually in the coastal city of Mahajanga, Madagascar. A total of 1,702 clinically suspected cases of bubonic plague were reported, including 515 laboratory confirmed by Yersinia pestis isolation (297), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, or both. Incidence was higher in males and young persons. Most buboes were inguinal, but children had a higher frequency of cervical or axillary buboes. Among laboratory-confirmed hospitalized patients, the case-fatality rate was 7.9%, although all Y. pestis isolates were sensitive to streptomycin, the recommended antibiotic. In this tropical city, plague outbreaks occur during the dry and cool season. Most cases are concentrated in the same crowded and insanitary districts, a result of close contact among humans, rats, and shrews. Plague remains an important public health problem in Madagascar, and the potential is substantial for spread to other coastal cities and abroad

Sentinel surveillance system for early outbreak detection in Madagascar

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Following the outbreak of chikungunya in the Indian Ocean, the Ministry of Health directed the necessary development of an early outbreak detection system. A disease surveillance team including the Institut Pasteur in Madagascar (IPM) was organized to establish a sentinel syndromic-based surveillance system. The system, which was set up in March 2007, transmits patient data on a daily basis from the various voluntary general practitioners throughout the six provinces of the country to the IPM. We describe the challenges and steps involved in developing a sentinel surveillance system and the well-timed information it provides for improving public health decision-making.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Surveillance was based on data collected from sentinel general practitioners (SGP). The SGPs report the sex, age, visit date and time, and symptoms of each new patient weekly, using forms addressed to the management team. However, the system is original in that SGPs also report data at least once a day, from Monday to Friday (number of fever cases, rapid test confirmed malaria, influenza, arboviral syndromes or diarrhoeal disease), by cellular telephone (encrypted message SMS). Information can also be validated by the management team, by mobile phone. This data transmission costs 120 ariary per day, less than US$1 per month.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2008, the sentinel surveillance system included 13 health centers, and identified 5 outbreaks. Of the 218,849 visits to SGPs, 12.2% were related to fever syndromes. Of these 26,669 fever cases, 12.3% were related to Dengue-like fever, 11.1% to Influenza-like illness and 9.7% to malaria cases confirmed by a specific rapid diagnostic test.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The sentinel surveillance system represents the first nationwide real-time-like surveillance system ever established in Madagascar. Our findings should encourage other African countries to develop their own syndromic surveillance systems.</p> <p>Prompt detection of an outbreak of infectious disease may lead to control measures that limit its impact and help prevent future outbreaks.</p

A226V Strains of Chikungunya Virus, Réunion Island, 2010

International audienceChikungunya virus (CHIKV) first emerged in Indian Ocean islands off the eastern coast of Africa in 2005 and was responsible for large-scale epidemics on the islands of Réunion, Comoros, Mayotte, Mauritius, Madagascar, and Seychelles (1–4). On Réunion Island, a French overseas territory of 810,000 inhabitants, herd immunity reached 38% in October 2006 (5). Molecular epidemiology of the strain responsible for these outbreaks indicated that it had originated in Kenya (6). The epidemic on Réunion Island was associated with a mutation in the envelope protein gene (E1-A226V) that improves replication and transmission efficiency in Aedes albopictus mosquitoes (7)

Термодинамический расчет диаграммы плавкости системы Mg—MgO—B при давлении 2 ГПа

В рамках модельных представлений феноменологической термодинамики выполнен расчет фазовых равновесий с участием жидкой фазы в тройной системе Mg—MgO—B при давлении 2 ГПа. Диаграмма плавкости системы характеризуется наличием пяти нонвариантных четырехфазных равновесий, три из которых перитектические, а два — эвтектические. Область первичной кристаллизации диборида магния MgB₂ расположена вблизи двойной системы Mg—B и выклинивается по мере увеличения концентрации кислорода, уступая в точке перитектического равновесия L + MgB₂ ↔ MgO + MgB₄ (1345 K, 68 % (ат.) В, 10 % (ат.) О) областям кристаллизации MgO и MgB₄

Outbreak of Dengue and Chikungunya Fevers, Toamasina, Madagascar, 2006

An outbreak of dengue-like syndrome occurred in Toamasina from January through March 2006. Dengue type l or chikungunya viruses were detected in 38 of 55 patients sampled. Aedes albopictus was the only potential vector collected. Of 4,242 randomly selected representative residents interviewed retrospectively, 67.5% reported a dengue-like syndrome during this period

Modeling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007

Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75–200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases worldwide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio-temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approximation for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 m in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modeling framework to assess the relationship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded

Epidemiologic Determinants for Modeling Pneumonic Plague Outbreaks

Pneumonic plague poses a potentially increasing risk to humans in plague nonendemic regions either as a consequence of an aerosolized release or through importation of the disease. Pneumonic plague is person-to-person transmissible. We provide a quantitative assessment of transmissibility based on past outbreaks that shows that the average number of secondary cases per primary case (R0) was 1.3 (variance = 3.1), assuming a geometric probability distribution, prior to outbreak control measures. We also show that the latent and infectious periods can be approximated by using lognormal distributions with means (SD) of 4.3 (1.8) and 2.5 (1.2) days. Based on this parameter estimation, we construct a Markov-chain epidemic model to demonstrate the potential impact of delays in implementing outbreak control measures and increasing numbers of index cases on the incidence of cases in simulated outbreaks