Discrepancy Measures for Global Sensitivity Analysis

While sensitivity analysis improves the transparency and reliability of mathematical models, its uptake bymodelers is still scarce. This is partially explained by its technical requirements, which may be hard tounderstand and implement by the nonspecialist. Here wepropose a sensitivity analysis approach based onthe concept of discrepancy that is as easy to understand as the visual inspection of input-output scatterplots.First, we show that some discrepancy measures are able to rank the most influential parameters of a modelalmost as accurately as the variance-based total sensitivity index. We then introduce an ersatz-discrepancywhose performance as a sensitivity measure is similar that of the best-performing discrepancy algorithms,is simple to implement, easier to interpret and orders of magnitude faster

Chemistry of heavy elements in the Dark Ages

Primordial molecules were formed during the Dark Ages, i.e. the time between recombination and reionization in the early Universe. The purpose of this article is to analyze the formation of primordial molecules based on heavy elements during the Dark Ages, with elemental abundances taken from different nucleosynthesis models. We present calculations of the full non-linear equation set governing the primordial chemistry. We consider the evolution of 45 chemical species and use an implicit multistep method of variable order of precision with an adaptive stepsize control. We find that the most abundant Dark Ages molecules based on heavy elements are CH and OH. Non-standard nucleosynthesis can lead to higher heavy element abundances while still satisfying the observed primordial light abundances. In that case, we show that the abundances of molecular species based on C, N, O and F can be enhanced by two orders of magnitude compared to the standard case, leading to a CH relative abundance higher than that of HD+ or H2D+.Comment: 14 pages, accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysic

Reference normal values and design of a vision screening for 4 to 5 years old preschoolers

A vision screening program for preschool children of 4-5 years old was designed and analyzed. Information of the prevalence of ocular conditions among preschool children was obtained. The vision health of a group of 127 children was evaluated by a comprehensive examination in their own school. If a child failed one or more screening tests, he was referred to the ophthalmologist. Of the children screened in this study, 61% passed distance visual acuity and retinoscopy tests, 17% were referred to the ophthalmologist and 22% will be annually monitoring. Values of monocular/binocular acuity worse than 0.5/0.6 are too poor for 4 years old children, whereas these limits increase up to 0.6/0.8 for 5 years old children. In conclusion, the prevalence of undetected vision problems in preschool children has been clearly demonstrated. Vision screening programs in schools are highly recommended. Nevertheless, coordination among professionals conducting screening, school personnel and parents are needed to reach high levels of success. The results of this study validate an easy and fast battery of tests. The vision screening has been highly reliable because reference normal values have been defined by analyzing statistically the results of these tests. Se diseñó y analizó un screening visual en preescolares de 4-5 años de edad. Se obtuvo información de la prevalencia de las condiciones oculares entre estos preescolares. Se evaluó la salud visual de un grupo de 127 niños con un examen completo en su propia escuela. Si el niño fallaba uno o más test era referido al oftalmólogo. De los niños revisados en el estudio, el 61% superó los test de agudeza visual y retinoscopía, al 17% se le refirió al oftalmólogo y el 22% será controlado anualmente. Valores de agudeza monocular/binocular peores de 0.5/0.6 son demasiado bajos para niños de 4 años de edad, mientras que estos límites se incrementan a 0.6/0.8 para niños de 5 años. En conclusión, la prevalencia de problemas de visión sin detectar en niños preescolares ha sido claramente demostrada. Sin embargo, es necesaria la coordinación entre profesionales que realicen el screening, personal del colegio y padres para alcanzar niveles altos de éxito. Los resultados de este estudio validan una batería rápida de test. El screening visual ha sido altamente fiable porque los valores normales de referencia han sido definidos analizando estadísticamente los resultados de estos tests

Limits on decaying dark energy density models from the CMB temperature-redshift relation

The nature of the dark energy is still a mystery and several models have been proposed to explain it. Here we consider a phenomenological model for dark energy decay into photons and particles as proposed by Lima (J. Lima, Phys. Rev. D 54, 2571 (1996)). He studied the thermodynamic aspects of decaying dark energy models in particular in the case of a continuous photon creation and/or disruption. Following his approach, we derive a temperature redshift relation for the CMB which depends on the effective equation of state $w_{eff}$ and on the "adiabatic index" $\gamma$. Comparing our relation with the data on the CMB temperature as a function of the redshift obtained from Sunyaev-Zel'dovich observations and at higher redshift from quasar absorption line spectra, we find $w_{eff}=-0.97 \pm 0.034$, adopting for the adiabatic index $\gamma=4/3$, in good agreement with current estimates and still compatible with $w_{eff}=-1$, implying that the dark energy content being constant in time.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figur

Low-Mass Star Formation, Triggered by Supernova in Primordial Clouds

The evolution of a gas shell, swept by the supernova remnant of a massive first generation star, is studied with H_2 and HD chemistry taken into account. When a first-generation star explodes as a supernova, H_2 and HD molecules are formed in the swept gas shell and effectively cool the gas shell to temperatures of 32 K - 154 K. If the supernova remnant can sweep to gather the ambient gas, the gas shell comes to be dominated by its self-gravity, and hence, is expected to fragment. Our result shows that for a reasonable range of temperatures (200 K - 1000 K) of interstellar gas, the formation of second-generation stars can be triggered by a single supernova or hypernova.Comment: 38pages, 10 figures, The Astrophysical Journal, accepted 8 Dec. 200

The First Stars

We review recent theoretical results on the formation of the first stars in the universe, and emphasize related open questions. In particular, we discuss the initial conditions for Population III star formation, as given by variants of the cold dark matter cosmology. Numerical simulations have investigated the collapse and the fragmentation of metal-free gas, showing that the first stars were predominantly very massive. The exact determination of the stellar masses, and the precise form of the primordial initial mass function, is still hampered by our limited understanding of the accretion physics and the protostellar feedback effects. We address the importance of heavy elements in bringing about the transition from an early star formation mode dominated by massive stars, to the familiar mode dominated by low mass stars, at later times. We show how complementary observations, both at high redshifts and in our local cosmic neighborhood, can be utilized to probe the first epoch of star formation.Comment: 38 pages, 10 figures, draft version for 2004 Annual Reviews of Astronomy and Astrophysics, high-resolution version available at http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/~vbromm

Conformational analysis with lanthanide shift reagents. A new determination of the cyclohexanol a-valoe

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/22202/1/0000633.pd

Asistencia a pacientes con Esclerosis Lateral Amiotrófica y a sus familiares cuidadores principales.

La esclerosis lateral amiotrófica (ELA) es una enfermedad neurodegenerativa progresiva que acaba comprometiendo tanto a las motoneuronas superiores como inferiores, encargadas de controlar los movimientos voluntarios. Hecho que provoca un aumento de la dependencia de los pacientes hacia sus cuidadores para realizar las actividades de la vida diaria (AVD). Si la relación familiar cuidador - paciente no se realiza adecuadamente, puede producirse el síndrome del cuidador, patología que pondría en juego la calidad de la asistencia que el cuidador brinde hacia su familiar enfermo. Crear un Programa Educativo de Salud para que pacientes y familiares cuidadores principales tengan los recursos necesarios para cuidarse, mejoraría en lo que cabe su calidad de vida y prevendría el síndrome del cuidador. Lo que cabe esperar del proyecto es que con la información y formación proporcionada tanto a pacientes como a sus cuidadores se mejore su calidad de vida y al mismo tiempo se evite la claudicación del cuidador principal

Study protocol: a randomised controlled trial on the clinical effects of levothyroxine treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism in people aged 80 years and over

Background: Subclinical hypothyroidism is common in older people and its contribution to health and disease needs to be elucidated further. Observational and clinical trial data on the clinical effects of subclinical hypothyroidism in persons aged 80 years and over is inconclusive, with some studies suggesting harm and some suggesting benefits, translating into equipoise whether levothyroxine therapy provides clinical benefits. This manuscript describes the study protocol for the Institute for Evidence-Based Medicine in Old Age (IEMO) 80-plus thyroid trial to generate the necessary evidence base. Methods: The IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial was explicitly designed as an ancillary experiment to the Thyroid hormone Replacement for Untreated older adults with Subclinical hypothyroidism randomised placebo controlled Trial (TRUST) with a near identical protocol and shared research infrastructure. Outcomes will be presented separately for the IEMO and TRUST 80-plus groups, as well as a pre-planned combined analysis of the 145 participants included in the IEMO trial and the 146 participants from the TRUST thyroid trial aged 80 years and over. The IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial is a multi-centre randomised double-blind placebo-controlled parallel group trial of levothyroxine treatment in community-dwelling participants aged 80 years and over with persistent subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH ≥4.6 and ≤ 19.9 mU/L and fT4 within laboratory reference ranges). Participants are randomised to levothyroxine 25 or 50 micrograms daily or matching placebo with dose titrations according to TSH levels, for a minimum follow-up of one and a maximum of three years. Primary study endpoints: hypothyroid physical symptoms and tiredness on the thyroid-related quality of life patient-reported outcome (ThyPRO) at one year. Secondary endpoints: generic quality of life, executive cognitive function, handgrip strength, functional ability, blood pressure, weight, body mass index, and mortality. Adverse events will be recorded with specific interest on cardiovascular endpoints such as atrial fibrillation and heart failure. Discussion: The combined analysis of participants in the IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial with the participants aged over 80 in the TRUST trial will provide the largest experimental evidence base on multimodal effects of levothyroxine treatment in 80-plus persons to date

Magnetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect in galaxy clusters

This Letter explores influences of intracluster magnetic fields (\gsim 1\muG) submerged in the hot electron gas on classic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) and thermal bremsstrahlung in X-ray emissions. As the Larmor frequency is much higher than all collision frequencies, the presence of magnetic field may lead to an anisotropic velocity distribution of hot electrons. For the two-temperature relativistic Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, we compute modifications to the classical thermal SZE. Intracluster magnetic fields tend to enhance the SZE with steeper radial variations, which bear important consequences for cluster-based estimates of cosmological parameters. By applying the magnetic SZE theory to spectral observations of SZ and Chandra X-ray emissions from the galaxy cluster Abell 2163, a $\sim 30-40\mu$G central core magnetic field $B_0$ is predicted. For the SZ and Chandra X-ray spectral observations of the Coma cluster, our theoretical analysis is also consistent with an observationally inferred B_0\lsim 10\muG. As the magnetic SZE is redshift $z$ independent, this mechanism might offer a potentially important and unique way of probing intracluster magnetic fields in the expanding universe.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. submitted to ApJ