The optimal pricing strategy for an insurer when risk preferences are stochastically distributed

The present paper analyzes the demand for insurance when the insurer has incomplete information about types of potential customers. We assume that customers´ risk preferences cannot be distinguished by the insurer. Therefore, the standard result in insurance economics that the insurer discriminates perfectly in prices cannot be applied. Instead, the present article examines the optimal pricing rule for an insurer faced with stochastic distribution of risk preferences. Within this general model framework, we show that an optimal strategy always exists. Both fixed and proportionate premium loadings (relative to expected loss) are considered. -- Der vorliegende Artikel analysiert die optimale Prämienpolitik eines Versicherers bei stochastischer Verteilung der Nachfragertypen auf Basis einer Preis-Absatz-Funktion. Dem Versicherer ist hier lediglich die Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung der individuellen Nachfragertypen bekannt und eine üblicherweise postulierte vollständige Preisdiskriminierung des Versicherers ist daher nicht möglich. Die allgemeine Preis-Absatz-Funktion des Versicherers variiert in Abhängigkeit der verwendeten Modellparameter. Wir zeigen, dass in diesem allgemeinen Modellrahmen stets eine optimale Preispolitik des Versicherers existiert. Dabei wird in Bezug auf den aktuariell fairen Wert der Police sowohl ein fixer als auch ein proportionaler Prämienzuschlag des Versicherers berücksichtigt.insurance demand,optimal insurance pricing,stochastically distributed risk preferences

Wertorientierte Steuerung von Lebensversicherungsunternehmen mittels stochastischer Prozesse

In dieser Arbeit wird das Konzept einer wertorientierten Steuerung von Lebensversicherungsunternehmen basierend auf stochastischen Prozessen vorgestellt. Dabei werden die stochastischen Prozesse dazu verwendet, die zufälligen wertbestimmenden Parameter der Unternehmensbewertung zu modellieren. Als Ergebnis erhält man für den Unternehmenswert Verteilungsfunktionen, die approximativ bzw. exakt in der Klasse der Normalverteilungen liegen. Betrachtet werden dabei stochastische Prozesse in diskreter bzw. stetiger Zeit und mit diskretem bzw. stetigem Zustandsraum. --

Chronifizierung der Krise : ein, zugegeben gedrängter, Versuch zum Zeitlichkeitsdiskurs von Corona

Themenheft: Corona. Essayistische Notizen zum Diskur

The perils of performance measurement in the German mutual-fund industry

We document a curious feature of the German mutual fund industry. Unlike U.S. mutual funds, funds domiciled in Germany do not necessarily compute their net asset values (NAV) as of market close. Using a sample of German equity funds, we infer each fund's NAV closing time from the best-fit market model using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. The results of both approaches coincide perfectly and show that all but one of the funds domiciled in Germany report intraday NAVs. We show that using market returns computed at the end of the day instead of the best-fit time, usually leads to misleading inferences about mutual fund performance

Safety, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of a novel anti-asthmatic drug, XC8, in healthy probands

Introduction: XC8 (histamine glutarimide) is a novel agent which targets eosinophilic migration and mast cell degranulation and has shown anti-asthmatic effects in animal studies. Objective: The objective of this placebo-controlled phase 1 study was to assess the safety of oral XC8 and to evaluate its pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties. Methods: 32 healthy volunteers in three dose-escalation treatment groups (10 mg [n = 8], 50 mg [n = 8] and 200 mg [n = 16]) were randomized in a 3:1 ratio to XC8 or placebo respectively. The subjects received a single dose of the drug at Day 1 and then once-daily for 14 days (Days 8-21). Results: No severe adverse events occurred. The number of adverse events was similar in the treatment arms compared to placebo and all subjects completed the study as planned. No clinically significant changes occurred in hematologic and biochemical blood tests in subjects receiving XC8. The pharmacokinetic data showed similar dose and time dependent mean plasma XC8 concentrations after single (Day 1) and multiple (Day 21) dosing. The mean maximum concentrations were 114-1993 ng/mL after single and 115-2089 ng/mL after multiple dosing. The mean times to maximum concentration were 0.68-1.01 and 0.67-0.98 h, respectively. There was no evidence for accumulation of XC8 after multiple dosing. Conclusion: XC8 was safe and well tolerated. A phase 2 study is being performed to further evaluate the potential role of XC8 in asthma treatment.Peer reviewe

Transcutaneous aortic valve replacement with the Edwards SAPIEN XT and Medtronic CoreValve prosthesis under fluoroscopic guidance and local anaesthesia only

Objective: To assess the feasibility of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI; Medtronic CoreValve and Edwards SAPIEN XT) under local anaesthesia with only mild analgesic medication and fluoroscopic guidance. Methods: 461 patients underwent TAVI under local anaesthesia with lidocaine. The procedure was performed successfully in 459 of the cases. All patients were also treated with piritramide, metoclopramide hydrochloride and 62 mg dimenhydrinate. Monitoring consisted of a six-electrode, virtual 12-lead ECG, pulse oximetry, and invasive arterial pressure measurement. There was no continuous surveillance by an anaesthesiologist. Results: There was no need for conversion to general anaesthesia except in four patients who required cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Conscious sedation with intravenous administration of midazolam for agitation or inotropic medication for prolonged hypotension was necessary in only seven of the 461 patients. The combined safety end point according to the Valve Academic Research Consortium consensus document was reached in 12.6%. Conclusions: Our results show that TAVI performed under local anaesthesia with only mild analgesic medication and under fluoroscopic guidance is feasible, with good outcome comparable to published data

Long-term treatment of uterine fibroids with ulipristal acetate

Objective: To investigate the efficacy and safety of ulipristal acetate (UPA) for long-term treatment of symptomatic uterine fibroids.<p></p> Design: Repeated intermittent open-label UPA courses, each followed by randomized double-blind norethisterone acetate (NETA) or placebo.<p></p> Setting: European clinical gynecology centers.<p></p> Patient(s): Two hundred and nine women with symptomatic fibroids including heavy menstrual bleeding.<p></p> Intervention(s): Patients received up to four 3-month courses of UPA 10 mg daily, immediately followed by 10-day double-blind treatment with NETA (10 mg daily) or placebo.<p></p> Main Outcome Measure(s): Amenorrhea, fibroid volume, endometrial histology.<p></p> Result(s): After the first UPA course, amenorrhea occurred in 79% of women, with median onset (from treatment start) of 4 days (interquartile range, 2–6 days). Median fibroid volume change was −45% (interquartile range, −66%; −25%). Amenorrhea rates were 89%, 88%, and 90% for the 131, 119, and 107 women who received treatment courses 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Median times to amenorrhea were 2, 3, and 3 days for treatment courses 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Median fibroid volume changes from baseline were −63%, −67%, and −72% after treatment courses 2, 3, and 4, respectively. All endometrial biopsies showed benign histology without hyperplasia; NETA did not affect fibroid volume or endometrial histology.<p></p> Conclusion(s): Repeated 3-month UPA courses effectively control bleeding and shrink fibroids in patients with symptomatic fibroids

Consensus-Based Core Set of Outcome Measures for Clinical Motor Rehabilitation After Stroke—A Delphi Study

Introduction: Outcome measures are key to tailor rehabilitation goals to the stroke patient’s individual needs and to monitor poststroke recovery. The large number of available outcome measures leads to high variability in clinical use. Currently, an internationally agreed core set of motor outcome measures for clinical application is lacking. Therefore, the goal was to develop such a set to serve as a quality standard in clinical motor rehabilitation poststroke. Methods: Outcome measures for the upper and lower extremities, and activities of daily living (ADL)/stroke-specific outcomes were identified and presented to stroke rehabilitation experts in an electronic Delphi study. In round 1, clinical feasibility and relevance of the outcome measures were rated on a 7-point Likert scale. In round 2, those rated at least as “relevant” and “feasible” were ranked within the body functions, activities, and participation domains of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF). Furthermore, measurement time points poststroke were indicated. In round 3, answers were reviewed in reference to overall results to reach final consensus.This work was financially supported by the P & K Pühringer Foundation

Digital Reset: Redirecting Technologies for the Deep Sustainability Transformation

Governments worldwide hope that digital technologies can provide key solutions. Yet this report shows that digitalisation, in its current and mainstream form, is rather aggravating than solving many of the pressing social and environmental crises at hand. What is needed instead is a deep sustainability transformation that fundamentally reorganises the economy and all its sectors - agriculture, mobility, energy, buildings, industry, and consumption. The Report »Digital Reset« shows how digital technologies can support the quest for such a deep sustainability transformation. The report provides a blueprint for the European Union on how to reconceptualise digitalisation so that it first and foremost contributes to achieving carbon neutrality, resource autonomy and economic resilience while supporting equity and fully respecting citizen's rights and privacy. The report is the outcome of a two-year international science-policy dialogue, »Digitalization for Sustainability« (D4S), and presents an up-to-date comprehensive analysis of opportunities, risks and governance options regarding digitalization and sustainability

ANALISIS BANJIR RANCANGAN DENGAN METODE HSS NAKAYASU PADA BENDUNGAN GINTUNG

Jebolnya Situ Gintung merupakan akibat dari perubahan debit banjir yang terus bertambah. Hal tersebut perlu diana/isis terhadap debit banjir rancangan yang selanjutnya dapat digunakan untuk merencanakan Bendungan Gintung yang baru. Berdasarkan permasalahan di atas, maka perlu dikembangkan perhitungan banjir rancangan dengan metode HSS Nakayasu. Perhitungan dengan menggunaan data hujan. Pada penelitian ini digunakan 18 Pos stasiun penangkar hujan yang diseleksi menurut kelayakan data menjadi 9 pos stasiun hujan dengan memasukan nilai hujan harian maksimum tahunan. Data curah hujan yang disaring memilki tingkat kepercayaan yang rendah, namun masih masuk ke dalam data aman. Dalam penentuan debit banjir rencana terlebih dahulu dilakukan ana/isa frekuensi dan penetapan sebaran data curah hujan kemudian diuji dengan chi-kuadrat. Distribusi yang sesuai adalah distribusi Log Pearson Type III. Dari hasil ana/isa debit banjir rancangan, untuk merencanakan bendungan digunakan debit banjir kala ulang Ql000 = 289,348 m3/dt