Transition extra-tropicale d'ouragans en Atlantique Nord et impact sur la prévisibilité d'événements extrêmes en Méditerranée

La transition extra-tropicale est la transformation d'un cyclone tropical en cyclone extra-tropical lors de sa migration vers les latitudes moyennes. Au cours de son interaction avec son nouvel environnement barocline, le cyclone peut se réintensifier par des processus dynamiques et diabatiques complexes. Il peut également avoir un impact en aval par le renforcement d'un train d'ondes de Rossby, qui se propage rapidement et dont le déferlement est souvent à l'origine d'événements extrêmes. La complexité des processus dynamiques et diabatiques de la transition extra-tropicale conduit alors à une réduction de la prévisibilité en aval. Les ouragans Florence et Hélène en Atlantique Nord ont ainsi contribué au déclenchement des événements extrêmes de septembre 2006 en Méditerranée, respectivement un épisode de précipitations intenses et un phénomène plus rare, un méditerragan (ouragan méditerranéen). Hélène s'est distinguée de Florence par des processus diabatiques prépondérants au cours de sa réintensification sur un océan plus chaud, ce qui lui a permis de conserver des caractéristiques tropicales. Ses trois réintensifications en trois jours induites par l'étirement de trois filaments de tourbillon potentiel, ajoutées au développement du méditerragan en aval, font d'Hélène un cas exceptionnel. Les deux événements extrêmes en Méditerranée étaient absents de la prévision déterministe à moyen terme. L'incertitude dans la représentation des processus diabatiques a été examinée car ceux-ci contrôlent l'impact des ouragans sur les ondes de Rossby. Pour la première fois, des simulations ont été réalisées avec le modèle Méso-NH sur un grand domaine avec une résolution explicite de la convection profonde, tirant parti de la parallélisation massive du modèle. Une faible sensibilité à la résolution horizontale du modèle a été trouvée dans les précipitations des ouragans, donc dans leur impact sur les ondes de Rossby et sur les événements extrêmes en Méditerranée. La trajectoire d'Hélène a par contre montré une forte sensibilité à sa synchronisation avec le train d'ondes de Rossby, influencée par la résolution horizontale du modèle. Cette forte sensibilité a été retrouvée dans les prévisions d'ensemble du Centre Européen pour la Prévision Météorologique à Moyen Terme, où le développement du méditerragan a requis la synchronisation d'Hélène avec le train d'ondes de Rossby. La perturbation ciblée des conditions initiales autour d'Hélène et du thalweg en amont a suffi à prévoir le méditerragan à une échéance de 108 h dans une simulation Méso-NH. Ces résultats montrent l'impact possible de transitions extra-tropicales en Atlantique Nord, qui surviennent à la même saison que la plupart des épisodes de précipitations intenses en Méditerranée. La réduction de l'incertitude dans la prévision de la transition extra-tropicale est donc un des enjeux de l'amélioration de la prévision d'événements extrêmes d'automne en Méditerranée.The extratropical transition is the transformation of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone during its migration towards the midlatitudes. During its interaction with its new baroclinic environment, the cyclone can reintensify through complex dynamical and diabatic processes. It can also have a impact downstream from the strenghtening of a Rossby wave train, which quickly propagates and of which the breaking is often the trigger of extreme weather events. The complexity of dynamical and diabatic processes lead then to a reduction of the downstream predictability. Hurricanes Florence and Helene over the North Atlantic contributed that way to the triggering of extreme weather events in September 2006 in the Mediterranean, respectively, an intense precipitation event and a rarer phenomenon, a Medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). Helene was distinguished from Florence by its predominant diabatic processes during the reintensification over a warmer ocean, from which it maintained tropical characteristics. Helene was an exceptional case from its three reintensifications in three days, induced by the elongation of three filaments of potential vorticity, in addition to the development of the Medicane downstream. Both extreme weather events in the Mediterranean were missed from the midrange deterministic forecast. As diabatic processes control the impact of the hurricanes on the Rossby wave trains, the uncertainty in their description was investigated. For the first time, numerical simulations were performed with the Meso-NH model over a large domain with an explicit resolution of deep convection, taking advantage of the massive parallel computing capabilities of the model. A weak sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the model was found in the precipitation of the hurricanes, thus in their impact on the Rossby wave trains and in the extreme weather events in the Mediterranean. The track of Helene showed instead a high sensitivity to its phasing with the Rossby wave train, that was influenced by the horizontal resolution of the model. This high sensitivity was found again in the ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, where the developement of the Medicane required the phasing of Helene with the Rossby wave train. Targeted perturbation of initial conditions around Helene and the upstream trough were sufficient to predict the Medicane at 108-h lead time in a Meso-NH simulation. The results show the possible impact of extratropical transitions over the North Atlantic, which take place during the same season as most high precipitation episodes in the Mediterranean. A reduction in the uncertainty of the forecast of an extratropical transition is therefore one of the issues for an improvement of the forecast of extreme weather events in the Autumn season, over the Mediterranean region

A parameterization of convective dust storms for models with mass-flux convective schemes

Cold pool outflows, generated by downdrafts from moist convection, can generate strong winds and therefore uplift of mineral dust. These so-called “haboob” convective dust storms occur over all major dust source areas worldwide and contribute substantially to emissions in northern Africa, the world’s largest source. Most large-scale models lack convective dust storms, because they do not resolve moist convection, relying instead on convection schemes. We suggest a parameterization of convective dust storms to account for their contribution in such large-scale models. The parameterization is based on a simple conceptual model, in which the downdraft mass flux from the convection scheme spreads out radially in a cylindrical cold pool. The parameterization is tested with a set of Unified Model runs for June and July 2006 over West Africa. It is calibrated with a convection-permitting run, and applied to a convection-parameterized run. The parameterization successfully produces the extensive area of dust-generating winds from cold pool outflows over the southern Sahara. However, this area extends farther to the east and dust generating winds occur earlier in the day than in the convection-permitting run. These biases are due to biases in the convection scheme. It is found that the location and timing of dust-generating winds are weakly sensitive to the parameters of the conceptual model. The results demonstrate that a simple parameterization has the potential to correct a major and long-standing limitation in global dust models

Overview and first results of the Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX): a field campaign to observe the formation of gusts using a Doppler lidar

Wind gusts are responsible for most damages in winter storms over central Europe, but capturing their small scale and short duration is a challenge for both models and observations. This motivated theWind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX) dedicated to investigate the formation of gusts during the passage of extratropical cyclones. The field campaign took place during the winter 2016–2017 on a former waste deposit located close to Karlsruhe in the Upper Rhine Valley in southwest Germany. Twelve extratropical cyclones were sampled during WASTEX with a Doppler lidar system performing vertical scans in the mean wind direction and complemented with a Doppler C-band radar and a 200m instrumented tower. First results are provided here for the three most intense storms and include a potential sting jet, a unique direct observation of a convective gust and coherent boundary-layer structures of strong winds

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

Abstract. New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995–2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a) the track and intensity to investigate the storms\u27 dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2–4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points

Angular momentum transport by internal gravity waves III - Wave excitation by core convection and the Coriolis effect

This is the third in a series of papers that deal with angular momentum transport by internal gravity waves. We concentrate on the waves excited by core convection in a 3Msun, Pop I main sequence star. Here, we want to examine the role of the Coriolis acceleration in the equations of motion that describe the behavior of waves and to evaluate its impact on angular momentum transport. We use the so-called traditional approximation of geophysics, which allows variable separation in radial and horizontal components. In the presence of rotation, the horizontal structure is described by Hough functions instead of spherical harmonics. The Coriolis acceleration has two main effects on waves. It transforms pure gravity waves into gravito-inertial waves that have a larger amplitude closer to the equator, and it introduces new waves whose restoring force is mainly the conservation of vorticity. Taking the Coriolis acceleration into account changes the subtle balance between prograde and retrograde waves in non-rotating stars. It also introduces new types of waves that are either purely prograde or retrograde. We show in this paper where the local deposition of angular momentum by such waves is important.Comment: 9 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication by A&

Interaction d'un cyclone tropical avec une onde de Rossby planétaire

La migration d'un cyclone tropical aux moyennes latitudes est un problème récurrent pour les modèles de prévision du temps. En particulier, l'interaction entre un cyclone tropical et une onde de Rossby planétaire réduit la prévisibilité en aval. Une simulation numérique avec le modèle atmosphérique Méso-NH reproduit cette interaction d'échelle grâce à sa résolution kilométrique étendue à une domaine semi-hémisphérique. Cette résolution élevée permet pour la première fois de décrire explicitement les phénomènes fortement diabatiques associés à la convection du cyclone

Deep inside low-mass stars

Low-mass stars exhibit, at all stages of their evolution, the signatures of complex physical processes that require challenging modeling beyond standard stellar theory. In this review, we recall the most striking observational evidences that probe the interaction and interdependence of various transport processes of chemicals and angular momentum in these objects. We then focus on the impact of atomic diffusion, large scale mixing due to rotation, and internal gravity waves on stellar properties on the main sequence and slightly beyond.Comment: Invited Review to be published in the proceedings of the IAU Symposium 252 "The Art of Modelling stars in the 21st Century" - Sanya - China - April 200