Evolution of surname distribution under gender-equality measurements

We consider a model for the evolution of the surnames distribution under a gender-equality measurement presently discussed in the Spanish parliament (the children take the surname of the father or the mother according to alphabetical order). We quantify how this would bias the alphabetical distribution of surnames, and analyze its effect on the present distribution of the surnames in Spain

A q-deformed nonlinear map

A scheme of q-deformation of nonlinear maps is introduced. As a specific example, a q-deformation procedure related to the Tsallis q-exponential function is applied to the logistic map. Compared to the canonical logistic map, the resulting family of q-logistic maps is shown to have a wider spectrum of interesting behaviours, including the co-existence of attractors -- a phenomenon rare in one dimensional maps.Comment: 17 pages, 19 figure

Electronic and traditional savings accounts in colombia: A spatial agglomeration model

The purpose of this article is to apply a multivariate spatial statistics technique: cluster analysis or spatial agglomeration, in order to classify departments into groups based on behavior in the number of active, inactive electronic savings accounts and savings traditional active accounts, with database available as of September 2017 in the bank of Colombia. The selection of this type of accounts was due to the fact that the financial product with the highest penetration in the Colombian population in September 2017, continued to be the savings account; 73.5% of the population had this financial product. However, this percentage is far from the target of 84% proposed in the National Development Plan. The findings show that the departments where electronic accounts are most used are Cauca, Bogotá, Meta, Casanare, Arauca, Vichada, Huila, Amazonas, Guainía, Vaupés, Caldas, Chocó, Sucre, La Guajira, César, Norte de Santander, however, the levels of penetration of this type of product are very low yet in the Colombian territory

Detecting spatio-temporal mortality clusters of European countries by sex and ag

[EN] Background: Mortality decreased in European Union (EU) countries during the last century. Despite these similar trends, there are still considerable differences in the levels of mortality between Eastern and Western European countries. Sub-group analysis of mortality in Europe for different age and sex groups is common, however to our knowledge a spatio-temporal methodology as in this study has not been applied to detect significant spatial dependence and interaction with time. Thus, the objective of this paper is to quantify the dynamics of mortality in Europe and detect significant clusters of mortality between European countries, applying spatio-temporal methodology. In addition, the joint evolution between the mortality of European countries and their neighbours over time was studied. Methods: The spatio-temporal methodology used in this study takes into account two factors: time and the geographical location of countries and, consequently, the neighbourhood relationships between them. This methodology was applied to 26 European countries for the period 1990-2012. Results: Principally, for people older than 64 years two significant clusters were obtained: one of high mortality formed by Eastern European countries and the other of low mortality composed of Western countries. In contrast, for ages below or equal to 64 years only the significant cluster of high mortality formed by Eastern European countries was observed. In addition, the joint evolution between the 26 European countries and their neighbours during the period 1990-2012 was confirmed. For this reason, it can be said that mortality in EU not only depends on differences in the health systems, which are a subject to national discretion, but also on supra-national developments. Conclusions: This paper proposes statistical tools which provide a clear framework for the successful implementation of development public policies to help the UE meet the challenge of rethinking its social model (Social Security and health care) and make it sustainable in the medium term.The authors are grateful for the financial support provided by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project MTM2013-45381-P. Adina Iftimi gratefully acknowledges financial support from the MECyD (Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporte, Spain) Grant FPU12/04531. Francisco Montes is grateful for the financial support provided by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project MTM2016-78917-R. The research by Patricia Carracedo and Ana Debon has been supported by a grant from the Mapfre Foundation.Carracedo-Garnateo, P.; Debón Aucejo, AM.; Iftimi, A.; Montes-Suay, F. (2018). Detecting spatio-temporal mortality clusters of European countries by sex and ag. 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Are there gender differences in the geography of alcohol-related mortality in Scotland? An ecological study

<b>Background</b> There is growing concern about alcohol-related harm, particularly within Scotland which has some of the highest rates of alcohol-related death in western Europe. There are large gender differences in alcohol-related mortality rates in Scotland and in other countries, but the reasons for these differences are not clearly understood. In this paper, we aimed to address calls in the literature for further research on gender differences in the causes, contexts and consequences of alcohol-related harm. Our primary research question was whether the kind of social environment which tends to produce higher or lower rates of alcohol-related mortality is the same for both men and women across Scotland. <b>Methods</b> Cross-sectional, ecological design. A comparison was made between spatial variation in men's and women's age-standardised alcohol-related mortality rates in Scotland using maps, Moran's Index, linear regression and spatial analyses of residuals. Directly standardised mortality rates were derived from individual level records of death registration, 2000–2005 (n = 8685). <b>Results</b> As expected, men's alcohol-related mortality rate substantially exceeded women's and there was substantial spatial variation in these rates for both men and women within Scotland. However, there was little spatial variation in the relationship between men's and women's alcohol-mortality rates (r2 = 0.73); areas with relatively high rates of alcohol-related mortality for men tended also to have relatively high rates for women. In a small number of areas (8 out of 144) the relationship between men's and women's alcohol-related mortality rates was significantly different. <b>Conclusion</b> In as far as geographic location captures exposure to social and economic environment, our results suggest that the relationship between social and economic environment and alcohol-related harm is very similar for men and women. The existence of a small number of areas in which men's and women's alcohol-related mortality had an different relationship suggests that some places may have unusual drinking cultures. These might prove useful for further investigations into the factors which influence drinking behaviour in men and women

Statistical Methods for Linking Health, Exposure, and Hazards

The Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN) proposes to link environmental hazards and exposures to health outcomes. Statistical methods used in case–control and cohort studies to link health outcomes to individual exposure estimates are well developed. However, reliable exposure estimates for many contaminants are not available at the individual level. In these cases, exposure/hazard data are often aggregated over a geographic area, and ecologic models are used to relate health outcome and exposure/hazard. Ecologic models are not without limitations in interpretation. EPHTN data are characteristic of much information currently being collected—they are multivariate, with many predictors and response variables, often aggregated over geographic regions (small and large) and correlated in space and/or time. The methods to model trends in space and time, handle correlation structures in the data, estimate effects, test hypotheses, and predict future outcomes are relatively new and without extensive application in environmental public health. In this article we outline a tiered approach to data analysis for EPHTN and review the use of standard methods for relating exposure/hazards, disease mapping and clustering techniques, Bayesian approaches, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for estimation of posterior parameters, and geostatistical methods. The advantages and limitations of these methods are discussed

Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle dies with instantaneous rate $\mu_n$. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics

Evolutionary Games with Affine Fitness Functions: Applications to Cancer

We analyze the dynamics of evolutionary games in which fitness is defined as an affine function of the expected payoff and a constant contribution. The resulting inhomogeneous replicator equation has an homogeneous equivalent with modified payoffs. The affine terms also influence the stochastic dynamics of a two-strategy Moran model of a finite population. We then apply the affine fitness function in a model for tumor-normal cell interactions to determine which are the most successful tumor strategies. In order to analyze the dynamics of concurrent strategies within a tumor population, we extend the model to a three-strategy game involving distinct tumor cell types as well as normal cells. In this model, interaction with normal cells, in combination with an increased constant fitness, is the most effective way of establishing a population of tumor cells in normal tissue.Comment: The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.com, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13235-011-0029-

Conditions for the Evolution of Gene Clusters in Bacterial Genomes

Genes encoding proteins in a common pathway are often found near each other along bacterial chromosomes. Several explanations have been proposed to account for the evolution of these structures. For instance, natural selection may directly favour gene clusters through a variety of mechanisms, such as increased efficiency of coregulation. An alternative and controversial hypothesis is the selfish operon model, which asserts that clustered arrangements of genes are more easily transferred to other species, thus improving the prospects for survival of the cluster. According to another hypothesis (the persistence model), genes that are in close proximity are less likely to be disrupted by deletions. Here we develop computational models to study the conditions under which gene clusters can evolve and persist. First, we examine the selfish operon model by re-implementing the simulation and running it under a wide range of conditions. Second, we introduce and study a Moran process in which there is natural selection for gene clustering and rearrangement occurs by genome inversion events. Finally, we develop and study a model that includes selection and inversion, which tracks the occurrence and fixation of rearrangements. Surprisingly, gene clusters fail to evolve under a wide range of conditions. Factors that promote the evolution of gene clusters include a low number of genes in the pathway, a high population size, and in the case of the selfish operon model, a high horizontal transfer rate. The computational analysis here has shown that the evolution of gene clusters can occur under both direct and indirect selection as long as certain conditions hold. Under these conditions the selfish operon model is still viable as an explanation for the evolution of gene clusters

Geographic Coincidence of Increased Malaria Transmission Hazard and Vulnerability Occurring at the Periphery of two Tanzanian Villages.

The goal of malaria elimination necessitates an improved understanding of any fine-scale geographic variations in transmission risk so that complementary vector control tools can be integrated into current vector control programmes as supplementary measures that are spatially targeted to maximize impact upon residual transmission. This study examines the distribution of host-seeking malaria vectors at households within two villages in rural Tanzania. Host-seeking mosquitoes were sampled from 72 randomly selected households in two villages on a monthly basis throughout 2008 using CDC light-traps placed beside occupied nets. Spatial autocorrelation in the dataset was examined using the Moran's I statistic and the location of any clusters was identified using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Statistical associations between the household characteristics and clusters of mosquitoes were assessed using a generalized linear model for each species. For both Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and Anopheles funestus, the density of host-seeking females was spatially autocorrelated, or clustered. For both species, houses with low densities were clustered in the semi-urban village centre while houses with high densities were clustered in the periphery of the villages. Clusters of houses with low or high densities of An. gambiae s.l. were influenced by the number of residents in nearby houses. The occurrence of high-density clusters of An. gambiae s.l. was associated with lower elevations while An. funestus was also associated with higher elevations. Distance from the village centre was also positively correlated with the number of household occupants and having houses constructed with open eaves. The results of the current study highlight that complementary vector control tools could be most effectively targeted to the periphery of villages where the households potentially have a higher hazard (mosquito densities) and vulnerability (open eaves and larger households) to malaria infection