Coevolution in a One Predator–Two Prey System

Background: Our understanding of coevolution in a predator–prey system is based mostly on pair-wise interactions. Methodology and Principal Findings: Here I analyze a one-predator–two-prey system in which the predator’s attack ability and the defense abilities of the prey all evolve. The coevolutionary consequences can differ dramatically depending on the initial trait value and the timing of the alternative prey’s invasion into the original system. If the invading prey species has relatively low defense ability when it invades, its defense is likely to evolve to a lower level, stabilizing the population dynamics. In contrast, if when it invades its defense ability is close to that of the resident prey, its defense can evolve to a higher level and that of the resident prey may suddenly cease to evolve, destabilizing the population dynamics. Destabilization due to invasion is likely when the invading prey is adaptively superior (evolution of its defense is less constrained and fast), and it can also occur in a broad condition even when the invading prey is adaptively inferior. In addition, invasion into a resident system far from equilibrium characterized by population oscillations is likely to cause further destabilization

Direct competition results from strong competiton for limited resource

We study a model of competition for resource through a chemostat-type model where species consume the common resource that is constantly supplied. We assume that the species and resources are characterized by a continuous trait. As already proved, this model, although more complicated than the usual Lotka-Volterra direct competition model, describes competitive interactions leading to concentrated distributions of species in continuous trait space. Here we assume a very fast dynamics for the supply of the resource and a fast dynamics for death and uptake rates. In this regime we show that factors that are independent of the resource competition become as important as the competition efficiency and that the direct competition model is a good approximation of the chemostat. Assuming these two timescales allows us to establish a mathematically rigorous proof showing that our resource-competition model with continuous traits converges to a direct competition model. We also show that the two timescales assumption is required to mathematically justify the corresponding classic result on a model consisting of only finite number of species and resources (MacArthur, R. Theor. Popul. Biol. 1970:1, 1-11). This is performed through asymptotic analysis, introducing different scales for the resource renewal rate and the uptake rate. The mathematical difficulty relies in a possible initial layer for the resource dynamics. The chemostat model comes with a global convex Lyapunov functional. We show that the particular form of the competition kernel derived from the uptake kernel, satisfies a positivity property which is known to be necessary for the direct competition model to enjoy the related Lyapunov functional

Species Invasion History Influences Community Evolution in a Tri-Trophic Food Web Model

Background: Recent experimental studies have demonstrated the importance of invasion history for evolutionary formation of community. However, only few theoretical studies on community evolution have focused on such views. Methodology and Principal Findings: We used a tri-trophic food web model to analyze the coevolutionary effects of ecological invasions by a mutant and by a predator and/or resource species of a native consumer species community and found that ecological invasions can lead to various evolutionary histories. The invasion of a predator makes multiple evolutionary community histories possible, and the evolutionary history followed can determine both the invasion success of the predator into the native community and the fate of the community. A slight difference in the timing of an ecological invasion can lead to a greatly different fate. In addition, even greatly different community histories can converge as a result of environmental changes such as a predator trait shift or a productivity change. Furthermore, the changes to the evolutionary history may be irreversible. Conclusions and Significance: Our modeling results suggest that the timing of ecological invasion of a species into a focal community can largely change the evolutionary consequences of the community. Our approach based on adaptive dynamics will be a useful tool to understand the effect of invasion history on evolutionary formation of community

Evaluating the Quality of Research into a Single Prognostic Biomarker: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of 83 Studies of C-Reactive Protein in Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Background Systematic evaluations of the quality of research on a single prognostic biomarker are rare. We sought to evaluate the quality of prognostic research evidence for the association of C-reactive protein (CRP) with fatal and nonfatal events among patients with stable coronary disease. Methods and Findings We searched MEDLINE (1966 to 2009) and EMBASE (1980 to 2009) and selected prospective studies of patients with stable coronary disease, reporting a relative risk for the association of CRP with death and nonfatal cardiovascular events. We included 83 studies, reporting 61,684 patients and 6,485 outcome events. No study reported a prespecified statistical analysis protocol; only two studies reported the time elapsed (in months or years) between initial presentation of symptomatic coronary disease and inclusion in the study. Studies reported a median of seven items (of 17) from the REMARK reporting guidelines, with no evidence of change over time. The pooled relative risk for the top versus bottom third of CRP distribution was 1.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78–2.17), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 79.5). Only 13 studies adjusted for conventional risk factors (age, sex, smoking, obesity, diabetes, and low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol) and these had a relative risk of 1.65 (95% CI 1.39–1.96), I2 = 33.7. Studies reported ten different ways of comparing CRP values, with weaker relative risks for those based on continuous measures. Adjusting for publication bias (for which there was strong evidence, Egger's p<0.001) using a validated method reduced the relative risk to 1.19 (95% CI 1.13–1.25). Only two studies reported a measure of discrimination (c-statistic). In 20 studies the detection rate for subsequent events could be calculated and was 31% for a 10% false positive rate, and the calculated pooled c-statistic was 0.61 (0.57–0.66). Conclusion Multiple types of reporting bias, and publication bias, make the magnitude of any independent association between CRP and prognosis among patients with stable coronary disease sufficiently uncertain that no clinical practice recommendations can be made. Publication of prespecified statistical analytic protocols and prospective registration of studies, among other measures, might help improve the quality of prognostic biomarker research

Research findings from the Memories of Nursing oral history project.

Capturing the stories of nurses who practised in the past offers the opportunity to reflect on the changes in practice over time to determine lessons for the future. This article shares some of the memories of a group of 16 nurses who were interviewed in Bournemouth, UK, between 2009 and 2016. Thematic analysis of the interview transcripts identified a number of themes, three of which are presented: defining moments, hygiene and hierarchy. The similarities and differences between their experiences and contemporary nursing practice are discussed to highlight how it may be timely to think back in order to take practice forward positively in the future

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Susceptibility to Predation Affects Trait-Mediated Indirect Interactions by Reversing Interspecific Competition

Numerous studies indicate that the behavioral responses of prey to the presence of predators can have an important role in structuring assemblages through trait-mediated indirect interactions. Few studies, however, have addressed how relative susceptibility to predation influences such interactions. Here we examine the effect of chemical cues from the common shore crab Carcinus maenas on the foraging behavior of two common intertidal gastropod molluscs. Of the two model consumers studied, Littorina littorea is morphologically more vulnerable to crab predation than Gibbula umbilicalis, and it exhibited greater competitive ability in the absence of predation threat. However, Littorina demonstrated a greater anti-predator response when experimentally exposed to predation cues, resulting in a lower level of foraging. This reversed the competitive interaction, allowing Gibbula substantially increased access to shared resources. Our results demonstrate that the susceptibility of consumers to predation can influence species interactions, and suggest that inter-specific differences in trait-mediated indirect interactions are another mechanism through which non-consumptive predator effects may influence trophic interactions

The functional response of a generalist predator

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Hepatopulmonary syndrome in patients with chronic liver disease: role of pulse oximetry

BACKGROUND: Hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a rare complication of liver diseases of different etiologies and may indicate a poor prognosis. Therefore, a simple non-invasive screening method to detect HPS would be highly desirable. In this study pulse oximetry was evaluated to identify patients with HPS. METHODS: In 316 consecutive patients with liver cirrhosis (n = 245), chronic hepatitis (n = 69) or non-cirrhotic portal hypertension (n = 2) arterial oxygen saturation (SaO(2)) was determined using a pulse oximeter. In patients with SaO(2 )≤92% in supine position and/or a decrease of ≥4% after change from supine to upright position further diagnostic procedures were performed, including contrast-enhanced echocardiography and perfusion lung scan. RESULTS: Seventeen patients (5.4%) had a pathological SaO(2). Four patients (1.3%) had HPS. HPS patients had a significant lower mean SaO(2 )in supine (89.7%, SD 5.4 vs. 96.0%, SD 2.3; p = 0.003) and upright position (84.3%, SD 5.0 vs. 96.0%, SD 2.4; p = 0.001) and had a lower mean PaO(2 )(56.2 mm Hg, SD 15.2 vs. 71.2 mm Hg, SD 20.2; p = 0.02) as compared to patients without HPS. The mean ΔSaO(2 )(difference between supine and upright position) was 5.50 (SD 7) in HPS patients compared to non-HPS patients who showed no change (p = 0.001). There was a strong correlation between shunt volume and the SaO(2 )values (R = -0.94). CONCLUSION: Arterial SaO(2 )determination in supine and upright position is a useful non-invasive screening test for HPS and correlates well with the intrapulmonary shunt volume