Risk-adjusted impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth for long-term investment

The impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth is approximated using a simple formula applicable to many investment situations. We show that the reduction in median returns attributable to administrative fees is usually at least twice the amount of the administrative costs charged for most investment funds, when considering a risk-adjustment correction over a reasonably long-term time horizon. The example we present covers a number of standard cases and can be applied to passive investments, mutual funds, and hedge funds. Our results show investors the potential losses they face in performance due to administrative costs

Long-run savings and investment strategy optimization

We focus on automatic strategies to optimize life cycle savings and investment. Classical optimal savings theory establishes that, given the level of risk aversion, a saver would keep the same relative amount invested in risky assets at any given time. We show that, when optimizing lifecycle investment, performance and risk assessment have to take into account the investor's risk aversion and the maximum amount the investor could lose, simultaneously. When risk aversion and maximum possible loss are considered jointly, an optimal savings strategy is obtained, which follows from constant rather than relative absolute risk aversion. This result is fundamental to prove that if risk aversion and the maximum possible loss are both high, then holding a constant amount invested in the risky asset is optimal for a standard lifetime saving/pension process and outperforms some other simple strategies. Performance comparisons are based on downside risk-adjusted equivalence that is used in our illustration

Fluvial geomorphological dynamics and land use changes: impact on the organic carbon stocks of soil and sediment

The drainage basin of the Turrilla river (SE of Spain) went through important land cover changes since 1950s; from mainly an agrarian scenario in 1956 to other depopulated and forested in 2015. This study analyzes the effects of land use changes on fluvial dynamics and their relationship with the organic carbon (OC) stock in fluvial sedimentary deposits as well as in the soil of the basin. Methods included a fluvial geomorphological analysis and a land use change analysis in combination with OC databases of soil and sediment. Results showed that the fluvial channel experienced important morphological changes related to different erosion processes and stabilization of fluvial deposits, induced by land use changes in the drainage area. The active channel decreased 63% in the study period, while bank erosion and gully erosion increased (34% and 21 %, respectively). Alluvial fans and alluvial plain were also extended (21% and 7 %, respectively) and alluvial bars were colonized by vegetation. Sediment was impoverished in OC compared to catchment soils (0.24 enrichment ratio sediment/soil). However the increase of OC stock (Mg ha-1) was very similar between soil (25 %) and sediment (23 %). The total reservoir of OC (Mg) increased 27% in sediments and 25% in the catchment soils. Results show the large influence of geomorphological dynamics on the OC reservoir at the catchment scale. A very high potential of fluvial sediments to increase OC sinks was observed, particularly in scenarios where the active channel is narrowed and the fluvial channel is encroached with vegetation, facilitating the input of OC in sediment. The potential of sediment to sequester organic carbon could be very useful in planning and management of fluvial sedimentary zones in climate change mitigation policies. © 2019, Universidad Austral de Chile. All rights reserved.Este estudio ha recibido apoyo financiero del proyecto DISECO (CGL2014-55405-R) del Plan Nacional de Ciencia del Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad de España, del proyecto SOGLO (P7/24 IAP BELSPO) del gobierno de Bélgica. AHM recibió apoyo financiero para una estancia en la Universidad Nacional de Córdoba (Argentina) del Banco de Santander mediante el Convenio Becas de Intercambio Latinoamérica (Programa ILA). CBF recibió apoyo financiero para dos estancias en el extranjero del programa Salvador de Madariaga 2017 (Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte, Gobierno de España) y del programa Jiménez de la Espada 2017 (Fundación Séneca, Agencia de Ciencia y Tecnología de la Región de Murcia). MAB fue parcialmente financiada por un contrato Juan de la Cierva-Incorporación (Ref: IJCI-2015-23500). Todas estas estancias permitieron el trabajo continuado en la redacción de este artículo

Pricing weekly motor insurance drivers’ with behavioral and contextual telematics data

Telematics boxes integrated into vehicles are instrumental in capturing driving data encompassing behavioral and contextual information, including speed, distance travelled by road type, and time of day. These data can be amalgamated with drivers' individual attributes and reported accident occurrences to their respective insurance providers. Our study analyzes a substantial sample size of 19,214 individual drivers over a span of 55 weeks, covering a cumulative distance of 181.4 million kilometers driven. Utilizing this dataset, we develop predictive models for weekly accident frequency. As anticipated based on prior research with yearly data, our findings affirm that behavioral traits, such as instances of excessive speed, and contextual data pertaining to road type and time of day significantly aid in ratemaking design. The predictive models enable the creation of driving scores and personalized warnings, presenting a potential to enhance traffic safety by alerting drivers to perilous conditions. Our discussion delves into the construction of multiplicative scores derived from Poisson regression, contrasting them with additive scores resulting from a linear probability model approach, which offer greater communicability. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the inclusion of lagged behavioral and contextual factors not only enhances prediction accuracy but also lays the foundation for a diverse range of usage-based insurance schemes for weekly payments

Can automobile insurance telematics predict the risk of near-miss events?

Telematics data from usage-based motor insurance provide valuable information –including vehicle usage, attitude towards speeding, time and proportion of urban/non-urban driving –that can be used for rate making. Additional information on acceleration, braking and cornering can likewise be usefully employed to identify near-miss events, a concept taken from aviation that denotes a situation that may have resulted in an accident. We analyze near-miss events from a sample of driversin order to identify the risk factors associated with a higher risk of near-miss occurrence. Our empirical application witha pilot sample of real usage-based insurance data reveals that certain factors are associated with a higher expected number of near-miss events, but that the association differs depending on the type of near-miss. We conclude that night time driving is associated with a lower risk of cornering events, urban driving increases the risk of braking events and speeding is associated with acceleration events. These results are relevant for the insurance industry in order to implement dynamic risk monitoring through telematics, as well as preventive actions

“Male effect” and “temporary weaning” in synchronization of post-partum ovarian activity in Pelibuey ewes

To evaluate the response of the “male effect” and “temporary weaning” on the synchronization of post-partum ovarian activity in Pelibuey ewes, an experiment was carried out using 78 Pelibuey ewes with suckling lambs. The ewes were separated from their offspring for 48 hours and randomly assigned to one of four treatments derived from the arrangement of two factors, “male effect” and “temporary weaning”, each at two levels. Treatments were: T1 (n = 20) control ewes, without “male effect” and without “temporary weaning”); T2 (n = 19) ewes without “male effect” and with “temporary weaning”; T3 (n = 20) ewes with “male effect” and without “temporary weaning”; and T4 (n = 19), ewes with “male effect” and with “temporary weaning”. The response to oestrus, return to oestrus, gestation rate and lambing rate were analysed using logistic regression. The onset of oestrus was analysed using survival curves. No significant differences were found for lambing rate and prolificacy among treatments. “Temporary weaning” (T2) and “male effect” (T3) did not influence the response to oestrus, rate and duration of return to oestrus, or gestation rate and fertility, and was similar to the control group (T1). The interaction of “male effect” with “temporary weaning” (T4) increased the response to oestrus, reduced the rate and duration of return to oestrus, and the gestation rate, but increased fertility. Synchronizing post-partum ovarian activity with “male effect” and “temporary weaning” reduces the onset of oestrus and the rate of return to oestrus, but increases the response to oestrus and fecundity in Pelibuey ewes.Keywords: Biostimulation, progestogens, prolificacy, prostaglandins, sucklin

Fifteen years controlling unwanted thoughts: A systematic review of the thought control ability questionnaire (TCAQ)

Thought control ability is a vulnerability factor implicated in the etiology and maintenance of emotional disorders. This manuscript aims to systematically review the use and psychometric performance of the Thought Control Ability Questionnaire (TCAQ), designed to assess people's ability to control unwanted thoughts. Three electronic databases were searched for papers administering the TCAQ published in indexed peer-reviewed journals. Data (participants characteristics, country, study design, etc.) were extracted from the results for qualitative synthesis. The TCAQ's content validity, dimensionality, internal consistency, test-retest reliability, convergent/divergent validity, floor/ceiling effects, and interpretability were summarized. Two reviewers independently screened articles and assessed quality taking COSMIN criteria into account. Finally, the review included 17 papers. The TCAQ has been administered to healthy individuals, students, and adult patients, in six languages from nine countries. We found that the TCAQ, and its shorter versions, demonstrate robust reliability and adequate content validity. Of interest is the TCAQ's capacity to predict performance in diverse experimental tasks focused on thought control. The TCAQ unidimensionality has been supported in exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Regarding construct validity, the TCAQ is significantly related to a wide range of psychopathological measures of anxiety, worry, depression, obsessive-compulsive symptoms, etc. However, as only a few of the included studies had a longitudinal design, we are unable to draw firm conclusions about the measure's temporal stability. Moreover, psychometric aspects such as factorial invariance across different samples have not been analyzed. Despite these limitations, based on available psychometric evidence we can recommend using the TCAQ for measuring perceived control of unwanted thoughts

Actividad reproductiva y dieta de Hemidactylus frenatus (Sauria: Gekkonidae) en el norte de Colombia

Despite its success as an invasive species, little is known about the ecological aspects of the gekkonid lizard Hemidactylus frenatus in Colombia. In the present study the size at maturity, sexual dimorphism, reproductive activity, and diet composition of a population of this species in an urban locality of Northern Colombia were determined. We conducted eleven samplings from September 2011 to August 2012 in buildings of the municipality of Sincelejo. A total of 264 specimens H. frenatus were captured, 112 were adult females, 133 adult males and 19 juveniles. Males reach sexual maturity at a smaller size (snout-vent length) than females (males: 35.7 mm; females: 42.7 mm), also they are larger and have proportionally larger heads and mouths than females. Males were reproductive throughout the year; although testicular volume varied significantly between samples, this variation was not associated with body size and precipitation in the study area. Reproductive adult females were found during all the sampling period. Females have an invariable clutch size of two eggs and we found no differences in the diameter and weight of eggs in each oviduct. The diet of H. frenatus is varied, with Diptera, Hemiptera and Formicidae being the prey types with the greatest relative importance values. Individuals of both sexes consume a similar volume and number of prey. Thus, the studied population of H. frenatus has continuous reproductive activity and a generalist-opportunistic feeding behavior. The climatic conditions of the study area, environmental availability of prey and intrinsic features of this species appear to be responsible for their abundance and colonizing success in this and other localities