Oblique reflections in the Mars Express MARSIS data set:stable density structures in the Martian ionosphere

The Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) onboard the European Space Agency's Mars Express (MEX) spacecraft routinely detects evidence of localized plasma density structures in the Martian dayside ionosphere. Such structures, likely taking the form of spatially extended elevations in the plasma density at a given altitude, give rise to oblique reflections in the Active Ionospheric Sounder data. These structures are likely related to the highly varied Martian crustal magnetic field. In this study we use the polar orbit of MEX to investigate the repeatability of the ionospheric structures producing these anomalous reflections, examining data taken in sequences of multiple orbits which pass over the same regions of the Martian surface under similar solar illuminations, within intervals lasting tens of days. Presenting three such examples, or case studies, we show for the first time that these oblique reflections are often incredibly stable, indicating that the underlying ionospheric structures are reliably reformed in the same locations and with qualitatively similar parameters. The visibility, or lack thereof, of a given oblique reflection on a single orbit can generally be attributed to variations in the crustal field within the ionosphere along the spacecraft trajectory. We show that, within these examples, oblique reflections are generally detected whenever the spacecraft passes over regions of intense near-radial crustal magnetic fields (i.e., with a “cusp-like” configuration). The apparent stability of these structures is an important feature that must be accounted for in models of their origin

Modulation of the Substorm Current Wedge by Bursty Bulk Flows: September 8, 2002 - Revisited

The ultimate formation mechanism of the substorm current wedge (SCW) remains to-date unclear. In this study, we investigate its relationship to plasma flows at substorm onset and throughout the following expansion phase. We revisit the case of September 8, 2002, which has been defined as "the best textbook example for a localized substorm onset observation" because of its excellent coverage by both spacecraft in the magnetotail and ground-based observatories is revisited. We found that a dense sequence of arrival of nightside flux transfer events (which can be understood as the lobe magnetic signature due to a bursty bulk flow travelling earthward in the central plasmasheet) in the near-Earth tail leads to a modulation (and further step-like built-up) of the SCW intensity during the substorm expansion phase. In addition, we found that small SCWs are created also during the growth phase of the event in association with another less intense sequence of NFTEs. The differences between the sequence of NFTEs in the growth and expansion phase are discussed. We conclude that the envelope of the magnetic disturbances which we typically refer to as an intense magnetic substorm is the result of a group or sequence of more intense and more frequent NFTEs

Nighttime Magnetic Perturbation Events Observed in Arctic Canada: 3. Occurrence and Amplitude as Functions of Magnetic Latitude, Local Time, and Magnetic Disturbance Indices

Rapid changes of magnetic fields associated with nighttime magnetic perturbation events (MPEs) with amplitudes |ΔB| of hundreds of nT and 5–10 min duration can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that can harm technological systems. This study compares the occurrence and amplitude of nighttime MPEs with |dB/dt| ≥ 6 nT/s observed during 2015 and 2017 at five stations in Arctic Canada ranging from 64.7° to 75.2° in corrected geomagnetic latitude (MLAT) as functions of magnetic local time (MLT), the SME (SuperMAG version of AE) and SYM/H magnetic indices, and time delay after substorm onsets. Although most MPEs occurred within 30 min after a substorm onset, ∼10% of those observed at the four lower latitude stations occurred over two hours after the most recent onset. A broad distribution in local time appeared at all five stations between 1700 and 0100 MLT, and a narrower distribution appeared at the lower latitude stations between 0200 and 0700 MLT. There was little or no correlation between MPE amplitude and the SYM/H index; most MPEs at all stations occurred for SYM/H values between −40 and 0 nT. SME index values for MPEs observed \u3e1 h after the most recent substorm onset fell in the lower half of the range of SME values for events during substorms, and dipolarizations in synchronous orbit at GOES 13 during these events were weaker or more often nonexistent. These observations suggest that substorms are neither necessary nor sufficient to cause MPEs, and hence predictions of GICs cannot focus solely on substorms

Model Evaluation Guidelines for Geomagnetic Index Predictions

Geomagnetic indices are convenient quantities that distill the complicated physics of some region or aspect of near‐Earth space into a single parameter. Most of the best‐known indices are calculated from ground‐based magnetometer data sets, such as Dst, SYM‐H, Kp, AE, AL, and PC. Many models have been created that predict the values of these indices, often using solar wind measurements upstream from Earth as the input variables to the calculation. This document reviews the current state of models that predict geomagnetic indices and the methods used to assess their ability to reproduce the target index time series. These existing methods are synthesized into a baseline collection of metrics for benchmarking a new or updated geomagnetic index prediction model. These methods fall into two categories: (1) fit performance metrics such as root‐mean‐square error and mean absolute error that are applied to a time series comparison of model output and observations and (2) event detection performance metrics such as Heidke Skill Score and probability of detection that are derived from a contingency table that compares model and observation values exceeding (or not) a threshold value. A few examples of codes being used with this set of metrics are presented, and other aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, and uncertainties are discussed, including several caveats to consider when using geomagnetic indices.Plain Language SummaryOne aspect of space weather is a magnetic signature across the surface of the Earth. The creation of this signal involves nonlinear interactions of electromagnetic forces on charged particles and can therefore be difficult to predict. The perturbations that space storms and other activity causes in some observation sets, however, are fairly regular in their pattern. Some of these measurements have been compiled together into a single value, a geomagnetic index. Several such indices exist, providing a global estimate of the activity in different parts of geospace. Models have been developed to predict the time series of these indices, and various statistical methods are used to assess their performance at reproducing the original index. Existing studies of geomagnetic indices, however, use different approaches to quantify the performance of the model. This document defines a standardized set of statistical analyses as a baseline set of comparison tools that are recommended to assess geomagnetic index prediction models. It also discusses best practices, limitations, uncertainties, and caveats to consider when conducting a model assessment.Key PointsWe review existing practices for assessing geomagnetic index prediction models and recommend a “standard set” of metricsAlong with fit performance metrics that use all data‐model pairs in their formulas, event detection performance metrics are recommendedOther aspects of metrics assessment best practices, limitations, uncertainties, and geomagnetic index caveats are also discussedPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147764/1/swe20790_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147764/2/swe20790.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147764/3/swe20790-sup-0001-2018SW002067-SI.pd

Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]Comment: In press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures

Mosaic: A Satellite Constellation to Enable Groundbreaking Mars Climate System Science and Prepare for Human Exploration

The Martian climate system has been revealed to rival the complexity of Earth\u27s. Over the last 20 yr, a fragmented and incomplete picture has emerged of its structure and variability; we remain largely ignorant of many of the physical processes driving matter and energy flow between and within Mars\u27 diverse climate domains. Mars Orbiters for Surface, Atmosphere, and Ionosphere Connections (MOSAIC) is a constellation of ten platforms focused on understanding these climate connections, with orbits and instruments tailored to observe the Martian climate system from three complementary perspectives. First, low-circular near-polar Sun-synchronous orbits (a large mothership and three smallsats spaced in local time) enable vertical profiling of wind, aerosols, water, and temperature, as well as mapping of surface and subsurface ice. Second, elliptical orbits sampling all of Mars\u27 plasma regions enable multipoint measurements necessary to understand mass/energy transport and ion-driven escape, also enabling, with the polar orbiters, dense radio occultation coverage. Last, longitudinally spaced areostationary orbits enable synoptic views of the lower atmosphere necessary to understand global and mesoscale dynamics, global views of the hydrogen and oxygen exospheres, and upstream measurements of space weather conditions. MOSAIC will characterize climate system variability diurnally and seasonally, on meso-, regional, and global scales, targeting the shallow subsurface all the way out to the solar wind, making many first-of-their-kind measurements. Importantly, these measurements will also prepare for human exploration and habitation of Mars by providing water resource prospecting, operational forecasting of dust and radiation hazards, and ionospheric communication/positioning disruptions