Pemodelan Risiko Pendapatan Proyek Infrastruktur Jalan Tol dengan Pendekatan Fault Tree Analysis

Risiko proyek infrastruktur dengan pendekatan Kerjasama Pemerintah Swasta relatif besar, karena memiliki masa konsesi dan dipengaruhi oleh faktor makroekonomi. Untuk itu penilaian faktor risiko perlu mendapat perhatian khusus. Risiko yang diteliti di penelitian ini adalah risiko pendapatan pada saat prakonstruksi. Pemodelan risiko pendapatan ini sebagai bahan untuk negosiasi, yang selanjutnya dapat digunakan sebagai model dasar untuk perhitungan dan pertimbangan alokasi, serta mitigasi risiko pada proyek infrastruktur jalan tol. Penelitian ini menggunakan alat bantu berupa metode Delphi yang berfungsi sebagai media untuk diskusi para pakar yang tidak langsung (vitual discussion), fault tree analysis yang berfungsi sebagai pemetaan intuisi para pakar dan digunakan untuk pemodelan konseptual yang dibangun dari kejadian-kejadian penyebab risiko. Hasil top level event tervalidasi di model fault tree analysis yang didapat di penelitian ini adalah: kerugian pendapatan yang disebabkan oleh risiko tarif (event dengan kode A); kerugian pendapatan yang diakibatkan oleh risiko volume lalu lintas/volume lalu lintas sepi (event dengan kode B); kerugian pendapatan yang disebabkan oleh adanya force majeure (event dengan kode C; dan kerugian pendapatan yang disebabkan oleh kejadian-kejadian non-revenue (event dengan kode D)

Penerapan Rantai Markov Pada Pola Perpindahan Pembelian di Produk Songkok

The projected decrease inspired this research in Afdhol MSMEs' consumer base in 2020. This study's objectives were to determine the pattern of product brand transfer for Nasional Afdhol (SNA) and predict the market share and price of prayer cap products. This study was undertaken at the SNA in Bungah District, Gresik Regency. With a population of 415 people and a required sample size of 204 persons, the required data consists of a questionnaire containing questions concerning prayer cap brand items used in the past and prayer cap brand products used presently. There are three competing prayer cap brands: Nasional ONH, Pendopo, and Nasional Gapuro Bungah. During the pandemic, it has decreased drastically by almost 70% until the last two years, so the problem that can be formulated was SNA has never evaluated the market, so competitors have never been taken into account for their role, which may affect the market share, and how consumers behave in their role in choosing which songkok to buy. By calculating using the Markov chain, the pattern of songkok purchase movement made by consumers in the 4 songkok brands can be analyzed so that SNA canplan marketing strategies to increase sales and their expected values. Data processing was performed using Rantai Markov, beginning with projecting market share using three strategies. The first strategy was without decreasing or raising prices. The second strategy was reducing the price of Rp. 5,000.00, and the third strategy was increasing the price of Rp. The calculation results yielded the greatest market share value. A formulated strategy was to cut the price of Rp. 5,000.00 by 42.65% with a probability value of 0.4265 under a steady-state condition of 0.4714 with a profit of Rp. 1,137,636. The strategy to obtain maximum expectation values has the consequence of enlarging its customer base

PENDEKATAN NONPARAMETRIK UNTUK SISTEM PERINGATAN DINI KRISIS KOMODITAS CRUDE PALM OIL

Krisis suatu komoditas merupakan kondisi yang diakibatkan oleh kelangkaan keberadaan komoditas tersebut. Kelangkaan komoditas umumnya ditandai dengan peningkatan harga komoditas. Salah satu komoditas yang rawan mengalami krisis yaitu komoditas CPO (Crude Palm Oil). CPO merupakan bahan baku utama pembuatan biodiesel dan minyak goreng. Antisipasi terhadap krisis komoditas perlu dilakukan terutama oleh pihak-pihak yang berkepentingan seperti pemerintah, industri, dan investor. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan suatu sistem peringatan dini yang dapat memberikan peringatan awal akan terjadinya suatu krisis. Pengembangan sistem peringatan dini untuk krisis komoditas CPO di Indonesia dilakukan dengan metode analogi dengan sistem peringatan dini untuk krisis mata uang. Pendekatan yang dikembangkan adalah non parametrik. Tahap penting yang dilakukan adalah menentukan variabel krisis dan indikator-indikator terjadinya krisis komoditas tersebut. Sebagai variabel krisis digunakan CMPI (Commodity Market Pressure Index). Indikator krisis yang digunakan adalah harga CPO luar negeri, harga minyak mentah dunia, tingkat inflasi, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap $US dolar, PDB, produksi CPO dan ekspor CPO. Penelitian ini menggunakan data bulanan dari Januari 2000 hingga Juni 2007. Dengan menggunakan ukuran performansi POPCC (percent of observation periods correctly called), dilakukan perbandingan model nonparametric. Hasil analisis tersebut menunjukkan bahwa indikator yang berkorelasi kuat terhadap krisis komoditas CPO adalah harga CPO luar negeri, harga minyak mentah, nilai tukar rupiah, PDB dan produksi CPO. Kata kunci: sistem peringatan dini, krisis komoditas, pendekatan sinyal, nonparametri

Rumusan Strategi Pengembangan Ekspor UKM Sepatu di Surabaya dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan ANP

Surabaya has been developing a small and medium enterprises which one of them is village shoe. Small andmediums enterprises shoe has 140 units. However conditions of small and medium enterprises are nothingexport yet. This study wanted SMEs can be export product. This research use a method Delphi for choose acriterion what affects the development of export SMEs and then continued with modeling of using the methodANP and finally get the ranking of highest weight is linkage the material. Strategy that use is mappingsupplier what could give credit material. Strategic used is (1 ) give facility and increase quality SDM andthen taken worker by government and UKM, (2) mapping supplier who can giving credit material, (3) followinternational event or national event and add referensi shoe model with folowing trend

Rumusan Strategi Pengembangan Ekspor UKM Sepatu di Surabaya dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan ANP

Surabaya has been developing a small and medium enterprises which one of them is village shoe. Small andmediums enterprises shoe has 140 units. However conditions of small and medium enterprises are nothingexport yet. This study wanted SMEs can be export product. This research use a method Delphi for choose acriterion what affects the development of export SMEs and then continued with modeling of using the methodANP and finally get the ranking of highest weight is linkage the material. Strategy that use is mappingsupplier what could give credit material. Strategic used is (1 ) give facility and increase quality SDM andthen taken worker by government and UKM, (2) mapping supplier who can giving credit material, (3) followinternational event or national event and add referensi shoe model with folowing trend

Digital strategy for improving resilience of micro, small, and medium enterprises

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted several small and medium-sized enter­prises (SMEs) in Indonesia. The viability of some SMEs' business opera­tions was disturbed, especially those who create non-essential goods like carving. The sales have decreased by up to sixty per cent, causing reduced levels of income and the termination of numerous workers. SMEs in Indonesia are highly considered because businesses are one of the country's most significant economic contributors. This research proposes a strategy for SMEs to improve the resilience of business operations of the SMEs. The K-means method was used to investigate three groups of SMEs: micro, small, and medium. Changes in the SME class before and after the pandemic are investigated through changes in the values of the variables in the SME profile. Then the SWOT method is used to identify internal and external factors with the highest weight, which can be used as a basis for developing strategies to increase the resilience of SMEs. Furthermore, the TOPSIS method determines the best plan for dealing with the new digital era. The result shows that the W-T strategy to utilize social media can be prioritized based on the criteria that significantly impact SMEs' product sales and business resilience

Model Prediksi Prilaku Kerja Aman Industri Kreatif Batik Tulis Sumenep

Sumenep’s hand Batik is one of best practice in Madura. Located in Pekandangan BaratVillage, Sumenep Regency. Production activities done manually and many hazards foundthroughout overall processes. The aime of this research is finding prediction model of safetywork behavior as the response by analyzing factors which influence safety work behaviorsignificantly. Observation executed by 80 respondents, the model used multivariate linierregression. The result obtained that knowledge variabel and protective personal equipmentare significant. Meanwhile, perception and communication are not significant. Finally, modelof safety work behavior found two variables such worker’s knowledge and protectivepersonal equipment which determination coeficient of model is 15.9%.

IMPLEMENTASI PENDEKATAN SIX SIGMA UNTUK PENGENDALIAN DAN PENINGKATAN KUALITAS PADA PROSES PRODUKSI STUD BOLT

Persaingan industri manufaktur di Indonesia semakin ketat, sehingga mendorong industri untuk berlomba-lomba meningkatkan kualitas produknya. PT. Jawa Metalindo Prima  adalah salah satu industri manufaktur yang memproduksi stud bolt, dimana masih sering ditemukan kecacatan dalam proses produksinya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengimplementasikan metode Six Sigma pada produksi stud bolt guna meminimalisir kecacatan produk dan meningkatkan kepuasan pelanggan. Metodologi ini didasarkan pada pendekatan Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control (DMAIC). Rata-rata hasil perhitungan nilai DPMO dan Sigma Level adalah 8696,02 dan 3,88, dimana masih belum dapat diterima karena masih jauh dari 6 sigma. Penyebab cacat tertinggi adalah ketidaksesuaian persentase perpanjangan dalam 4D yaitu sebesar 48%. Setelah dilakukan analisa, akar penyebab masalah produk cacat adalah operator yang kurang memiliki pengetahuan. Berdasarkan analisis 5W + 1H kebijakan yang harus diambil untuk meningkatkan kualitas stud bolt adalah selalu memperbarui work instruction dan melakukan pengawasan yang ketat pada setiap critical to quality

Risk assessment on low levels of nacl salt using fault tree analysis in small and medium-sized industries Madura salt

Madura is the largest salt producer in East Java Province, with a percentage of production of 75% of the total, so this has a vast potential to produce an abundance of salt. The production stages are pre-production processes, production processes, and post-production. This study aimed to analyze NaCl levels and impurities in salt. Solving the problem requires risk analysis in salt manufacturing from start to finish. This study used the Fault Tree Analysis method, which was expected to find out the root of the problem in salt making. Data was collected by observing and documenting the salting site and interviewing salt farmers. The lab test result indicated that the NaCL levels of salt and seawater were below the standard, with an average NaCL level of 85%, where NaCL levels were less than 94% and had a water content of more than 5%. The NaCl content of seawater was also below the standard, with an average content of 51%, whereas usually, seawater contains NaCL of 86%. In addition, the lab test result for Pb contains, as impurities, was 1.33 ppm. This result was categorized as low level where the standard of Pb cannot allowed above 10 ppm