Parameterization of arbitrary hole shapes using non-destructive testing and resulting stress concentration in a 2D plate with finite dimensions

Air void inclusions are mostly unavoidable in many different materials resulting from manufacturing processes or environmental conditions. In this contribution, non-destructive testing (NDT) like computer tomography (CT) is used for air void detection and quantification. The air voids lead to stress concentrations around them which influence significantly the structural integrity and at worst, lead to structural failure. By nature, air voids exhibit arbitrary shapes on which circular, elliptical, slotted and rounded rectangular holes are fitted by a least-square optimization algorithm to reduce the amount of necessary shape parameters. The mentioned shapes are compared in relation to the arbitrary one and with regard to the resulting stress concentration factor as well as the location of the maximum first principal stress in a 2D plate with finite dimensions under uniaxial tension. Finally, aleatory and epistemic uncertainties are derived from the conducted CT analysis which leads to a problem under polymorphic uncertainties. The problem is solved by a surrogate model based on cubic spline interpolation and points out the importance of the consideration of different hole shapes for analyzing the stress concentration.DFG, 273721697, SPP 1886: Polymorphe Unschärfemodellierungen für den numerischen Entwurf von Strukture

Finding and removing highly connected individuals using suboptimal vaccines

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Social networks are often highly skewed, meaning that the vast majority of the population has only few contacts whereas a small minority has a large number of contacts. These highly connected individuals may play an important role in case of an infectious disease outbreak.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose a novel strategy of finding and immunizing highly connected individuals and evaluate this strategy by computer simulations, using a stochastic, individual-and network-based simulation approach. A small random sample of the population is asked to list their acquaintances, and those who are mentioned most frequently are offered vaccination. This intervention is combined with case isolation and contact tracing.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Asking only 10% of the population for 10 acquaintances each and vaccinating the most frequently named people strongly diminishes the magnitude of an outbreak which would otherwise have exhausted the available isolation units and gone out of control. It is extremely important to immunize all identified highly connected individuals. Omitting a few of them because of unsuccessful vaccination jeopardizes the overall success, unless non-immunized individuals are taken under surveillance.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The strategy proposed in this paper is particularly successful because it attacks the very point from which the transmission network draws its strength: the highly connected individuals. Current preparedness and containment plans for smallpox and other infectious diseases may benefit from such knowledge.</p

Competition for inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorous between phytoplankton and bacteria during an <i>Emiliania huxleyi</i> spring bloom

Using ¹⁵N and ³³P, we measured the turnover of organic and inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) substrates, and the partitioning of N and P from these sources into two size fractions of marine osmotrophs during the course of a phytoplankton bloom in a nutrient manipulated mesocosm. The larger size fraction (&gt;0.8 μm), mainly consisting of the coccolithophorid <i>Emiliania huxleyi</i>, but also including an increasing amount of large particle-associated bacteria as the bloom proceeded, dominated uptake of the inorganic forms NH₄⁺, NO₃^&minus;, and PO₄^3&minus;. The uptake of N from leucine, and P from ATP and dissolved DNA, was initially dominated by the 0.8&ndash;0.2 μm size fraction, but shifted towards dominance by the &gt;0.8 μm size fraction as the system turned to an increasing degree of N-deficiency. Normalizing uptake to biomass of phytoplankton and heterotrophic bacteria revealed that organisms in the 0.8&ndash;0.2 μm size fraction had higher specific affinity for leucine-N than those in the &gt;0.8 μm size fraction when N was deficient, whereas the opposite was the case for NH₄⁺. There was no such difference regarding the specific affinity for P substrates. Since heterotrophic bacteria seem to acquire N from organic compounds like leucine more efficiently than phytoplankton, our results suggest different structuring of the microbial food chain in N-limited relative to P-limited environments

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccination of children in Germany

Damm O, Eichner M, Rose MA, et al. Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccination of children in Germany. The European Journal of Health Economics. 2015;16(5):471-488.In 2011, intranasally administered live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) was approved in the EU for prophylaxis of seasonal influenza in 2-17-year-old children. Our objective was to estimate the potential epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of an LAIV-based extension of the influenza vaccination programme to healthy children in Germany. An age-structured dynamic model of influenza transmission was developed and combined with a decision-tree to evaluate different vaccination strategies in the German health care system. Model inputs were based on published literature or were derived by expert consulting using the Delphi technique. Unit costs were drawn from German sources. Under base-case assumptions, annual routine vaccination of children aged 2-17 years with LAIV assuming an uptake of 50 % would prevent, across all ages, 16 million cases of symptomatic influenza, over 600,000 cases of acute otitis media, nearly 130,000 cases of community-acquired pneumonia, nearly 1.7 million prescriptions of antibiotics and over 165,000 hospitalisations over 10 years. The discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was a,not sign1,228 per quality-adjusted life year gained from a broad third-party payer perspective (including reimbursed direct costs and specific transfer payments), when compared with the current strategy of vaccinating primarily risk groups with the conventional trivalent inactivated vaccine. Inclusion of patient co-payments and indirect costs in terms of productivity losses resulted in discounted 10-year cost savings of a,not sign3.4 billion. In conclusion, adopting universal influenza immunisation of healthy children and adolescents would lead to a substantial reduction in influenza-associated disease at a reasonable cost to the German statutory health insurance system. On the basis of the epidemiological and health economic simulation results, a recommendation of introducing annual routine influenza vaccination of children 2-17 years of age might be taken into consideration

Searching for the Kuhnian moment : the Black-Scholes-Merton formula and the evolution of modern finance theory

The Black-Scholes-Merton formula has been put to widespread use by options traders because it provides a means of calculating the theoretically 'correct' price of stock options. Traders can therefore see whether the market price of stock options undervalues or overvalues them compared with their hypothetical Black-Scholes-Merton price, before choosing to buy or sell options accordingly. As a consequence of this close relationship between options pricing theory and options pricing practice, a strong performativity loop was activated, whereby market prices quickly converged on the hypothetical Black-Scholes-Merton prices following the dissemination of the formula. The theory has therefore had significant real-world effects, but how should we characterize the initial instinct to derive the theory from a philosophy of science perspective? The two books under review suggest that a Kuhnian reading of the advancement of scientific knowledge might well be the most appropriate. But, on closer inspection, it becomes clear that the publication of the Black-Scholes-Merton formula should not be seen as a Kuhnian moment with paradigm-shaping attributes. It is shown that, at most, the formula acts as an important exemplar which, via its use in the training of options pricing theorists and options pricing practitioners, reinforces the entrenchment of finance theory within the orthodox economics worldview

The epidemiological impact of childhood influenza vaccination using live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany: predictions of a simulation study

Rose MA, Damm O, Greiner W, et al. The epidemiological impact of childhood influenza vaccination using live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany: predictions of a simulation study. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2014;14(1): 40.Background Routine annual influenza vaccination is primarily recommended for all persons aged 60 and above and for people with underlying chronic conditions in Germany. Other countries have already adopted additional childhood influenza immunisation programmes. The objective of this study is to determine the potential epidemiological impact of implementing paediatric influenza vaccination using intranasally administered live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany. Methods A deterministic age-structured model is used to simulate the population-level impact of different vaccination strategies on the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in Germany. In our base-case analysis, we estimate the effects of adding a LAIV-based immunisation programme targeting children 2 to 17 years of age to the existing influenza vaccination policy. The data used in the model is based on published evidence complemented by expert opinion. Results In our model, additional vaccination of children 2 to 17 years of age with LAIV leads to the prevention of 23.9 million influenza infections and nearly 16 million symptomatic influenza cases within 10 years. This reduction in burden of disease is not restricted to children. About one third of all adult cases can indirectly be prevented by LAIV immunisation of children. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that vaccinating children 2–17 years of age is likely associated with a significant reduction in the burden of paediatric influenza. Furthermore, annual routine childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza is expected to decrease the incidence of influenza among adults and older people due to indirect effects of herd protection. In summary, our model provides data supporting the introduction of a paediatric influenza immunisation programme in Germany

Rhomboid family member 2 regulates cytoskeletal stress-associated Keratin 16.

Keratin 16 (K16) is a cytoskeletal scaffolding protein highly expressed at pressure-bearing sites of the mammalian footpad. It can be induced in hyperproliferative states such as wound healing, inflammation and cancer. Here we show that the inactive rhomboid protease RHBDF2 (iRHOM2) regulates thickening of the footpad epidermis through its interaction with K16. K16 expression is absent in the thinned footpads of irhom2-/- mice compared with irhom2+/+mice, due to reduced keratinocyte proliferation. Gain-of-function mutations in iRHOM2 underlie Tylosis with oesophageal cancer (TOC), characterized by palmoplantar thickening, upregulate K16 with robust downregulation of its type II keratin binding partner, K6. By orchestrating the remodelling and turnover of K16, and uncoupling it from K6, iRHOM2 regulates the epithelial response to physical stress. These findings contribute to our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying hyperproliferation of the palmoplantar epidermis in both physiological and disease states, and how this 'stress' keratin is regulated

Frequency of Adverse Events after Vaccination with Different Vaccinia Strains

BACKGROUND: Large quantities of smallpox vaccine have been stockpiled to protect entire nations against a possible reintroduction of smallpox. Planning for an appropriate use of these stockpiled vaccines in response to a smallpox outbreak requires a rational assessment of the risks of vaccination-related adverse events, compared to the risk of contracting an infection. Although considerable effort has been made to understand the dynamics of smallpox transmission in modern societies, little attention has been paid to estimating the frequency of adverse events due to smallpox vaccination. Studies exploring the consequences of smallpox vaccination strategies have commonly used a frequency of approximately one death per million vaccinations, which is based on a study of vaccination with the New York City Board of Health (NYCBH) strain of vaccinia virus. However, a multitude of historical studies of smallpox vaccination with other vaccinia strains suggest that there are strain-related differences in the frequency of adverse events after vaccination. Because many countries have stockpiled vaccine based on the Lister strain of vaccinia virus, a quantitative evaluation of the adverse effects of such vaccines is essential for emergency response planning. We conducted a systematic review and statistical analysis of historical data concerning vaccination against smallpox with different strains of vaccinia virus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed historical vaccination data extracted from the literature. We extracted data on the frequency of postvaccinal encephalitis and death with respect to vaccinia strain and age of vaccinees. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach for meta-analysis, we estimated the expected frequencies of postvaccinal encephalitis and death with respect to age at vaccination for smallpox vaccines based on the NYCBH and Lister vaccinia strains. We found large heterogeneity between findings from different studies and a time-period effect that showed decreasing incidences of adverse events over several decades. To estimate death rates, we then restricted our analysis to more-recent studies. We estimated that vaccination with the NYCBH strain leads to an average of 1.4 deaths per million vaccinations (95% credible interval, 0–6) and that vaccination with Lister vaccine leads to an average of 8.4 deaths per million vaccinations (95% credible interval, 0–31). We combined age-dependent estimates of the frequency of death after vaccination and revaccination with demographic data to obtain estimates of the expected number of deaths in present societies due to vaccination with the NYCBH and Lister vaccinia strains. CONCLUSIONS: Previous analyses of smallpox vaccination policies, which rely on the commonly assumed value of one death per million vaccinations, may give serious underestimates of the number of deaths resulting from vaccination. Moreover, because there are large, strain-dependent differences in the frequency of adverse events due to smallpox vaccination, it is difficult to extrapolate from predictions for the NYCBH-derived vaccines (stockpiled in countries such as the US) to predictions for the Lister-derived vaccines (stockpiled in countries such as Germany). In planning for an effective response to a possible smallpox outbreak, public-health decision makers should reconsider their strategies of when to opt for ring vaccination and when to opt for mass vaccination

A Computational Model of Bacterial Population Dynamics in Gastrointestinal Yersinia enterocolitica Infections in Mice.

The complex interplay of a pathogen with its virulence and fitness factors, the host's immune response, and the endogenous microbiome determine the course and outcome of gastrointestinal infection. The expansion of a pathogen within the gastrointestinal tract implies an increased risk of developing severe systemic infections, especially in dysbiotic or immunocompromised individuals. We developed a mechanistic computational model that calculates and simulates such scenarios, based on an ordinary differential equation system, to explain the bacterial population dynamics during gastrointestinal infection. For implementing the model and estimating its parameters, oral mouse infection experiments with the enteropathogen, Yersinia enterocolitica (Ye), were carried out. Our model accounts for specific pathogen characteristics and is intended to reflect scenarios where colonization resistance, mediated by the endogenous microbiome, is lacking, or where the immune response is partially impaired. Fitting our data from experimental mouse infections, we can justify our model setup and deduce cues for further model improvement. The model is freely available, in SBML format, from the BioModels Database under the accession number MODEL2002070001