Mass balance observations and reconstruction for Batysh Sook Glacier, Tien Shan, from 2004 to 2016

In this study we present an analysis of measured annual mass balances for the period 2011 to 2016 and a reconstruction of seasonal mass balances from 2004 to 2010 for Batysh Sook Glacier located in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Conventional methods and a model-based extrapolation of the point measurements were used to obtain glacier- wide mass balances and to analyze glaciological measurements. Especially at the beginning of the re-established glacier mass balance monitoring program, deviations between the different methods were significant, having a range of 0.40 m w.e. a− 1. With the improvement of the measurement network in later years, the results of the different extrapolation methods showed better agreement (range of 0.10 to 0.22 m w.e. a− 1). For 2011 to 2016, the profile method revealed a mass loss of − 0.41 ± 28 m w.e. a− 1. The contour line method yielded a negative mean mass balance of − 0.34 ± 20 m w.e a− 1, whereas the model-based extrapolation clearly resulted in the most negative value of − 0.43 ± 16 m w.e. a− 1 for the same period.The same distributed accumulation and temperature index melt model used to extrapolate point measurements from 2011 to 2016 was applied in order to reconstruct the mass balance from 2004 to 2010. The model was driven by daily air temperature and precipitation data from a nearby meteorological station and the model parameters were calibrated with in-situ measurements of annual mass balances collected from 2011 to 2016. Winter accumulation measurements taken in May 2014 were used for calibration purposes and to deduce snow distribution patterns. Subseasonal model performance was validated based on the snow cover depletion pattern observed on satellite images during the summer months from 2004 to 2016. For Batysh Sook Glacier an average annual mass balance of − 0.39 ± 0.26 m w.e. a− 1 was found for the period 2003/04 to 2015/16

Long-term firn and mass balance modelling for Abramov Glacier in the data-scarce Pamir Alay

Several studies identified heterogeneous glacier mass changes in western High Mountain Asia over the last decades. Causes for these mass change patterns are still not fully understood. Modelling the physical interactions between glacier surface and atmosphere over several decades can provide insight into relevant processes. Such model applications, however, have data needs which are usually not met in these data-scarce regions. Exceptionally detailed glaciological and meteorological data exist for the Abramov Glacier in the Pamir Alay range. In this study, we use weather station measurements in combination with downscaled reanalysis data to force a coupled surface energy balance–multilayer subsurface model for Abramov Glacier for 52 years. Available in situ data are used for model calibration and validation. We find an overall negative mass balance of −0.27 mw.e.a-1 for 1968/1969–2019/2020 and a loss of firn pore space causing a reduction of internal accumulation. Despite increasing air temperatures, we do not find an acceleration of glacier-wide mass loss over time. Such an acceleration is compensated for by increasing precipitation rates (+0.0022 mw.e.a-1, significant at a 90 % confidence level). Our results indicate a significant correlation between annual mass balance and precipitation (R2 = 0.72).</p

Mass-balance reconstruction for Glacier No. 354, Tien Shan, from 2003 to 2014

This study presents a reconstruction of the seasonal mass balance of Glacier No. 354, located in the Akshiirak range, Kyrgyzstan, from 2003 to 2014. We use a distributed accumulation and temperature-index melt model driven by daily air temperature and precipitation from a nearby meteorological station. The model is calibrated with in situ measurements of the annual mass balance collected from 2011 to 2014. The snow-cover depletion pattern observed using satellite imagery provides additional information on the dynamics of mass change throughout the melting season. Two digital elevation models derived from high-resolution satellite stereo images acquired in 2003 and 2012 are used to calculate glacier volume change for the corresponding period. The geodetic mass change thus derived is used to validate the modelled cumulative glacier-wide balance. For the period 2003–12 we find a cumulative mass balance of –0.40±10mw.e.a-1. This result agrees well with the geodetic balance of –0.48±0.07mw.e.a-1over the same period

Environmental Restrictors to Occupational Participation in Old Age: Exploring Differences across Gender in Puerto Rico

Many older adults face challenges that prevent them from accomplishing common daily activities such as moving around, home maintenance, and leisure activities. There is still a need to examine and understand how environmental factors impact daily participation across gender. This study sought to make a qualitative comparison of gender differences regarding environmental barriers to participation in daily occupations from the perspectives of older adults who live alone in Puerto Rico. Twenty-six Hispanic older adults, 70 years or older participated in this study. We used a descriptive qualitative research design in which researchers administered an in-depth interview to each participant. The results elucidated that women were more likely than men to experience restricted participation due to lack of accessibility of the built environment and transportation systems. The findings could help with the development of tailored, occupation-based, preventive interventions that address gender specific environmental barriers and promote greater participation among both women and men. Further research is required to explore whether these environmental barriers to occupational participation remain consistent across living situations, socioeconomic status and ethnicity

Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras

Future runoff from glacierized catchments in the Central Andes could substantially decrease

In Peru, about 50% of the energy is produced from hydropower plants. An important amount of this energy is produced with water from glaciated catchments. In these catchments river streamflow is furthermore needed for other socio-economic activities such as agriculture. However, the amount and seasonality of water from glacial melt is expected to undergo strong changes. As glaciers are projected to further decline with continued warming, runoff will become more and more sensitive to possible changes in precipitation patterns. Moreover, as stated by a recent study (Neukom et al., 2015), wet season precipitation sums in the Central Andes could decrease up to 19-33 % by the end of the 21st century compared to present-day conditions. Here, we investigate future runoff availability for selected glacierized catchments in the Peruvian Andes. In a first step, we apply a simplified energy balance and runoff model (ITGG-2.0-R) for current conditions

Firn changes at Colle Gnifetti revealed with a high-resolution process-based physical model approach

Our changing climate is expected to affect ice core records as cold firn progressively transitions to a temperate state. Thus, there is a need to improve our understanding and to further develop quantitative process modeling, to better predict cold firn evolution under a range of climate scenarios. Here we present the application of a distributed, fully coupled energy balance model, to simulate cold firn at the high-alpine glaciated saddle of Colle Gnifetti (Swiss–Italian Alps) over the period 2003–2018. We force the model with high-resolution, long-term, and extensively quality-checked meteorological data measured in the closest vicinity of the firn site, at the highest automatic weather station in Europe (Capanna Margherita, 4560 m a.s.l.). The model incorporates the spatial variability of snow accumulation rates and is calibrated using several partly unpublished high-altitude measurements from the Monte Rosa area. The simulation reveals a very good overall agreement in the comparison with a large archive of firn temperature profiles. Our results show that surface melt over the glaciated saddle is increasing by 3–4 mm w.e. yr−2 depending on the location (29 %–36 % in 16 years), although with large inter-annual variability. Analysis of modeled melt indicates the frequent occurrence of small melt events (&lt;4 mm w.e.), which collectively represent a significant fraction of the melt totals. Modeled firn warming rates at 20 m depth are relatively uniform above 4450 m a.s.l. (0.4–0.5 ∘C per decade). They become highly variable at lower elevations, with a marked dependence on surface aspect and absolute values up to 2.5 times the local rate of atmospheric warming. Our distributed simulation contributes to the understanding of the thermal regime and evolution of a prominent site for alpine ice cores and may support the planning of future core drilling efforts. Moreover, thanks to an extensive archive of measurements available for comparison, we also highlight the possibilities of model improvement most relevant to the investigation of future scenarios, such as the fixed-depth parametrized routine of deep preferential percolation

Geodetic mass balance of Abramov Glacier from 1975 to 2015

Abstract Multi-decadal mass loss estimates are available for few glaciers of Central Asia. On Abramov Glacier (Pamir-Alay, Kyrgyzstan), comprehensive long-term glaciological measurements have been carried out from 1968 to 1999 and re-initiated in 2011. A climatological interpretation of this benchmark glacier in Central Asia requires bridging the gap between historical and renewed measurements. This is achieved here by computing the geodetic mass balance from 1975 to 2015 using previously unreleased Soviet aerial imagery and Pléaides stereo-imagery. During 1975–2015, Abramov Glacier lost 2.2 km 2 (8.2%) of its area. The mean annual thickness change was − 0.43 ± 0.14 m a −1 for the period 1975–2015, corresponding to a volume change of − 0.45 ± 0.15 km 3 . The average specific geodetic mass balance amounts to − 0.38 ± 0.12 m w . e . a −1 . The 1975–2015 glacier mass loss lies within the range of glaciological and geodetic mass-balance estimates that were previously published for disparate and shorter time intervals since 1968. This study covers a much longer time period than earlier geodetic estimates and demonstrates the capacity to geodetically constrain glacier change at high spatial resolution in Central Asia using historic aerial imagery and Structure from Motion techniques. Therefore, it could serve as a benchmark for future studies of regional mass change

Mass-balance reconstruction for Glacier No. 354, Tien Shan, from 2003 to 2014

This study presents a reconstruction of the seasonal mass balance of Glacier No. 354, located in the Akshiirak range, Kyrgyzstan, from 2003 to 2014. We use a distributed accumulation and temperature-index melt model driven by daily air temperature and precipitation from a nearby meteorological station. The model is calibrated with in situ measurements of the annual mass balance collected from 2011 to 2014. The snow-cover depletion pattern observed using satellite imagery provides additional information on the dynamics of mass change throughout the melting season. Two digital elevation models derived from high-resolution satellite stereo images acquired in 2003 and 2012 are used to calculate glacier volume change for the corresponding period. The geodetic mass change thus derived is used to validate the modelled cumulative glacier-wide balance. For the period 2003–12 we find a cumulative mass balance of –0.40±10mw.e.a-1. This result agrees well with the geodetic balance of –0.48±0.07mw.e.a-1over the same period.ISSN:0260-3055ISSN:1727-564

¿Cuál es el futuro del caudal en las cuencas glaciadas de los Andes Centrales?

In Peru several hydropower companies produce energy in glaciated catchments located in the Cordilleras Blanca (Santa river), Vilcanota (Vilcanota-Urubamba river) and Central (Cañete river). In this context, our study investigates the glacier atmosphere and climate change interactions considering furthermore a scenario of significant precipitation reductions in the region until the end of the XXI century. Finally, the objective of our study is to estimate the consequences of the glacial retreat on the available water resources for the downstream users in the glaciated catchments. We use the model ITGG-2.0 for analysing the glacier sensitivity to changes in climatic conditions. Our results indicate that a precipitation decrease will not only affect the accumulation rate of glaciers but also has consequences on the available energy for ablation. Therefore, the glacier retreat in the Central Andes is expected to accelerate, making water availability unsustainable and leading to future shortages for water users as well as natural systems. = En el Perú, varias empresas hidroeléctricas están generando energía en cuencas glaciadas situadas sobre todo en las Cordilleras Blanca (río Santa), Vilcanota (río Vilcanota-Urubamba) y Central (río Cañete). En este contexto, nuestro estudio investiga las interacciones entre los glaciares, el clima y el cambio climático; incluyendo un análisis de un escenario plausible de fuerte reducción de la precipitación a finales del siglo XXI. El objetivo final es determinar las consecuencias del retroceso glaciar causado por el cambio climático en la disponibilidad futura de recursos hídricos de las cuencas glaciadas. Se utiliza el modelo ITGG-2.0 para analizar la sensibilidad de los glaciares con respecto a condiciones climáticas cambiantes. Los resultados indican que una diminución de las precipitaciones en el futuro tiene como consecuencia no solamente cambios en la acumulación de nieve de los glaciares, sino también en la cantidad de energía disponible para el proceso de ablación. Esto significa que el retroceso glaciar posiblemente se acelerará en las cuencas de los Andes Centrales liberando agua de una manera no sostenible, lo cual producirá futuros déficits de agua para los usuarios y los sistemas naturales