Evaluating interpretable machine learning predictions for cryptocurrencies

This study explores various machine learning and deep learning applications on financial data modelling, analysis and prediction processes. The main focus is to test the prediction accuracy of cryptocurrency hourly returns and to explore, analyse and showcase the various interpretability features of the ML models. The study considers the six most dominant cryptocurrencies in the market: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Cardano, Ripple and Litecoin. The experimental settings explore the formation of the corresponding datasets from technical, fundamental and statistical analysis. The paper compares various existing and enhanced algorithms and explains their results, features and limitations. The algorithms include decision trees, random forests and ensemble methods, SVM, neural networks, single and multiple features N-BEATS, ARIMA and Google AutoML. From experimental results, we see that predicting cryptocurrency returns is possible. However, prediction algorithms may not generalise for different assets and markets over long periods. There is no clear winner that satisfies all requirements, and the main choice of algorithm will be tied to the user needs and provided resources

Correlation of oxidation reduction potential and total motile sperm count : its utility in the evaluation of male fertility potential

Oxidative stress (OS) is detrimental to sperm functions, and the oxidation reduction potential (ORP) is a good measure of OS as it considers the balance between oxidants and reductants. Total motile sperm count (TMSC) is viewed as the single most important semen analysis parameter that can predict male infertility severity, and its correlation with ORP has never been undertaken. The objectives of this study were to assess the correlation between ORP and TMSC, to identify the ORP cutoff value based on the TMSC result, and to compare this cutoff value with previously reported ORP cutoff values in literature. One thousand one hundred and sixty-eight infertile patients and 100 fertile controls were enrolled. Demographic and semen data of the participants were retrieved and analyzed. Wilcoxon's rank-sum test compared variables between infertile men and fertile controls; Spearman's correlation assessed the static ORP (sORP)-TMSC relationship for the whole sample and among each group individually. Using a 20×106TMSC threshold, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis determined the sORP cutoff associated with the highest predictive values. TMSC was significantly negatively correlated with sORP across all participants (r = 0.86, P < 0.001), among infertile patients (r = 0.729, P < 0.001), and among fertile controls (r = 0.53, P < 0.001). A 20-million TMSC threshold determined an sORP cutoff value of 2.34 mV/106sperm/ml to be associated with 82.9% sensitivity, 82.8% specificity, 91.5% positive predictive value (PPV), 68.5% negative predictive value (NPV), and 82.9% overall accuracy. Compared with previously reported cutoff values in searched literature, the 2.34 mV/106sperm/ml cutoff value identified in our study yielded the highest overall diagnostic accuracy in the evaluation of infertile men

Geographical differences in semen characteristics of 13 892 infertile men

Objective: To assess the relationship between geographical differences and all semen parameters, across 13,892 infertile men of 84 diverse nationalities, recruited at a specialised tertiary hospital that represents the main healthcare provider in Qatar. Male infertility is an important and global public health problem. Despite this, there is a significant scarcity of epidemiological male infertility and semen analysis research in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, as well as geographical comparisons with other parts of the world. Patients and methods: Retrospective study of semen findings of 13 892 infertile men assessed at the Male Infertility Unit at Hamad Medical Corporation, in Qatar between January 2012 and August 2015. Based on country of origin, patients were categorised into those from the MENA region (n = 8799) and non-MENA patients (n = 5093). The two groups were compared across demographic features and semen characteristics: age, sperm volume, sperm total motility, sperm progressive motility (PMot), abnormal sperm forms (ABF), and sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF). Results: The whole sample’s mean (SD) age was 35.7 (0.7) years, sperm concentration was 32.3 (0.25) × 106 sperm/mL, total motility was 45.4 (0.2)%, sperm PMot was 25.1 (0.2)%, and ABF was 79.9 (0.2)%. Overall, 841 patients had azoospermia (6.05%), 3231 had oligospermia (23.3%), 4239 had asthenospermia (30.5%) and 6772 had teratospermia (48.7%). SDF (1050 patients) was abnormal in 333 patients (31.7%). MENA patients were significantly younger than their non-MENA counterparts and had a greater semen volume. Non-MENA patients had significantly higher sperm counts, total motility and PMot, and lower ABF. SDF showed no statistical difference between the two groups. MENA patients had significantly higher prevalence of oligospermia, asthenospermia, and teratospermia; and lower prevalence of normal sperm concentration, normal motility, and normal morphology. Throughout the 4 years of the study, MENA patients constantly had significantly lower sperm counts; generally lower sperm total motility percentage and generally lower quality sperm morphology. We compared patients by age (≤40 and >40 years): in the patients aged ≤40 years, the same results as for the overall study were reproduced; in the >40-years group, the same results were reproduced with the exception of morphology, which was not significantly different between the MENA and non-MENA patients. Conclusion: Semen quality is generally lower in male infertility patients from the MENA region compared to non-MENA regions. Keywords: Male infertility, MENA, Semen quality, Sperm DNA fragmentatio

Successful treatment of hydroxyurea-associated chronic leg ulcers associated with squamous cell carcinoma

Hydroxyurea (HU) is an antineoplastic drug used in the treatment of chronic myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). HU is associated with cutaneous adverse effects, whereas severe complications such as leg ulcers and non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) are rare and only observed after long-term treatment. We herein report a patient with essential thrombocythemia (ET) treated chronically with HU, and who developed refractory bilateral leg ulcers complicated by squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) over both heels. The patient was successfully managed by multiple debridement stages and skin grafting surgeries. Keywords: Essential thrombocythemia, Hydroxyurea, Squamous cell carcinom

Oxidation–reduction potential and sperm DNA fragmentation, and their associations with sperm morphological anomalies amongst fertile and infertile men

Objective: To assess seminal oxidation–reduction potential (ORP) and sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF) in male infertility and their relationships with sperm morphology in fertile and infertile men. Patients and methods: Prospective case-control study comparing the findings of infertile men (n = 1168) to those of men with confirmed fertility (n = 100) regarding demographics and semen characteristics (conventional and advanced semen tests). Spearman rank correlation assessed the correlation between ORP, SDF, and different morphological indices. Means of ORP and SDF were assessed in variable levels of normal sperm morphology amongst all participants. Results: Infertile patients had a significantly lower mean sperm count (32.7 vs 58.7 × 106 sperm/mL), total motility (50.1% vs 60.4%), and normal morphology (5.7% vs 9.9%). Conversely, infertile patients had significantly higher mean head defects (54% vs 48%), and higher ORP and SDF values than fertile controls. ORP and SDF showed significant positive correlations and significant negative correlations with sperm head defects and normal morphology in infertile patients, respectively. ORP and SDF were significantly inversely associated with the level of normal sperm morphology. Using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, ORP and SDF threshold values of 1.73 mV/106 sperm/mL and 25.5%, respectively, were associated with 76% and 56% sensitivity and 72% and 72.2% specificity, respectively, in differentiating <4% from ≥4% normal morphology. Conclusion: A direct inverse relationship exists between seminal ORP and SDF with various levels of normal sperm morphology. Using ORP and SDF measures in conjunction with standard semen morphology analysis could validate the result of the fertility status of patients. Keywords: Male infertility, Oxidation-reduction potential, Sperm, Sperm DNA fragmentation, Sperm morpholog