Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector

The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic1, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America2, Europe3 and northern Africa4. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known5, 6, 7, the lack of subsurface ocean observations8 that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions9. Here we apply a simple approach—that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations—to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state10, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming

Carbon sequestration via wood burial

To mitigate global climate change, a portfolio of strategies will be needed to keep the atmospheric CO2 concentration below a dangerous level. Here a carbon sequestration strategy is proposed in which certain dead or live trees are harvested via collection or selective cutting, then buried in trenches or stowed away in above-ground shelters. The largely anaerobic condition under a sufficiently thick layer of soil will prevent the decomposition of the buried wood. Because a large flux of CO2 is constantly being assimilated into the world's forests via photosynthesis, cutting off its return pathway to the atmosphere forms an effective carbon sink

Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s

European climate exhibits variability on a wide range of timescales. Understanding the nature and drivers of this variability is an essential step in developing robust climate predictions and risk assessments. The Atlantic Ocean has been suggested as an important driver of variability in European climate on decadal timescales1, but the importance of this influence in recent decades has been unclear, partly because of difficulties in separating the influence of the Atlantic Ocean from other contributions, for example, from the tropical Pacific Ocean and the stratosphere. Here we analyse four data sets derived from observations to show that, during the 1990s, there was a substantial shift in European climate towards a pattern characterized by anomalously wet summers in northern Europe, and hot, dry, summers in southern Europe, with related shifts in spring and autumn. These changes in climate coincided with a substantial warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, towards a state last seen in the 1950s. The patterns of European climate change in the 1990s are consistent with earlier changes attributed to the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean, and provide compelling evidence that the Atlantic Ocean was the key driver. Our results suggest that the recent pattern of anomalies in European climate will persist as long as the North Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm

Apoptosis Induced by Cytoskeletal Disruption Requires Distinct Domains of MEKK1

MEKK1 is a mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase kinase (MAP3K) that activates the MAPK JNK and is required for microtubule inhibitor-induced apoptosis in B cells. Here, we find that apoptosis induced by actin disruption via cytochalasin D and by the protein phosphatase 1/2A inhibitor okadaic acid also requires MEKK1 activation. To elucidate the functional requirements for activation of the MEKK1-dependent apoptotic pathway, we created mutations within MEKK1. MEKK1-deficient cells were complemented with MEKK1 containing mutations in either the ubiquitin interacting motif (UIM), plant homeodomain (PHD), caspase cleavage site or the kinase domain at near endogenous levels of expression and tested for their sensitivity to each drug. We found that both the kinase activity and the PHD domain of MEKK1 are required for JNK activation and efficient induction of apoptosis by drugs causing cytoskeletal disruption. Furthermore, we discovered that modification of MEKK1 and its localization depends on the integrity of the PHD

ACVIM consensus statement on the diagnosis of immune-mediated hemolytic anemia in dogs and cats

Immune-mediated hemolytic anemia (IMHA) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in dogs. IMHA also occurs in cats, although less commonly. IMHA is considered secondary when it can be attributed to an underlying disease, and as primary (idiopathic) if no cause is found. Eliminating diseases that cause IMHA may attenuate or stop immune-mediated erythrocyte destruction, and adverse consequences of long-term immunosuppressive treatment can be avoided. Infections, cancer, drugs, vaccines, and inflammatory processes may be underlying causes of IMHA. Evidence for these comorbidities has not been systematically evaluated, rendering evidence-based decisions difficult. We identified and extracted data from studies published in the veterinary literature and developed a novel tool for evaluation of evidence quality, using it to assess study design, diagnostic criteria for IMHA, comorbidities, and causality. Succinct evidence summary statements were written, along with screening recommendations. Statements were refined by conducting 3 iterations of Delphi review with panel and task force members. Commentary was solicited from several professional bodies to maximize clinical applicability before the recommendations were submitted. The resulting document is intended to provide clinical guidelines for diagnosis of, and underlying disease screening for, IMHA in dogs and cats. These should be implemented with consideration of animal, owner, and geographical factors

Estimates of live-tree carbon stores in the Pacific Northwest are sensitive to model selection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Estimates of live-tree carbon stores are influenced by numerous uncertainties. One of them is model-selection uncertainty: one has to choose among multiple empirical equations and conversion factors that can be plausibly justified as locally applicable to calculate the carbon store from inventory measurements such as tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH). Here we quantify the model-selection uncertainty for the five most numerous tree species in six counties of northwest Oregon, USA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results of our study demonstrate that model-selection error may introduce 20 to 40% uncertainty into a live-tree carbon estimate, possibly making this form of error the largest source of uncertainty in estimation of live-tree carbon stores. The effect of model selection could be even greater if models are applied beyond the height and DBH ranges for which they were developed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Model-selection uncertainty is potentially large enough that it could limit the ability to track forest carbon with the precision and accuracy required by carbon accounting protocols. Without local validation based on detailed measurements of usually destructively sampled trees, it is very difficult to choose the best model when there are several available. Our analysis suggests that considering tree form in equation selection may better match trees to existing equations and that substantial gaps exist, in terms of both species and diameter ranges, that are ripe for new model-building effort.</p

Alphavirus replicon particles containing the gene for HER2/neu inhibit breast cancer growth and tumorigenesis

INTRODUCTION: Overexpression of the HER2/neu gene in breast cancer is associated with an increased incidence of metastatic disease and with a poor prognosis. Although passive immunotherapy with the humanized monoclonal antibody trastuzumab (Herceptin) has shown some effect, a vaccine capable of inducing T-cell and humoral immunity could be more effective. METHODS: Virus-like replicon particles (VRP) of Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus containing the gene for HER2/neu (VRP-neu) were tested by an active immunotherapeutic approach in tumor prevention models and in a metastasis prevention model. RESULTS: VRP-neu prevented or significantly inhibited the growth of HER2/neu-expressing murine breast cancer cells injected either into mammary tissue or intravenously. Vaccination with VRP-neu completely prevented tumor formation in and death of MMTV-c-neu transgenic mice, and resulted in high levels of neu-specific CD8(+ )T lymphocytes and serum IgG. CONCLUSION: On the basis of these findings, clinical testing of this vaccine in patients with HER2/neu(+ )breast cancer is warranted

Rapid response of Helheim Glacier in Greenland to climate variability over the past century

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature Geoscience 5 (2012): 37-41, doi:10.1038/ngeo1349.During the early 2000s the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced the largest ice mass loss observed on the instrumental record1, largely as a result of the acceleration, thinning and retreat of major outlet glaciers in West and Southeast Greenland2-5. The quasi-simultaneous change in the glaciers suggests a common climate forcing and increasing air6 and ocean7-8 temperatures have been indicated as potential triggers. Here, we present a new record of calving activity of Helheim Glacier, East Greenland, extending back to c. 1890 AD. This record was obtained by analysing sedimentary deposits from Sermilik Fjord, where Helheim Glacier terminates, and uses the annual deposition of sand grains as a proxy for iceberg discharge. The 120 year long record reveals large fluctuations in calving rates, but that the present high rate was reproduced only in the 1930s. A comparison with climate indices indicates that high calving activity coincides with increased Atlantic Water and decreased Polar Water influence on the shelf, warm summers and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our analysis provides evidence that Helheim Glacier responds to short-term (3-10 years) large-scale oceanic and atmospheric fluctuations.This study has been supported by Geocenter Denmark in financial support to the SEDIMICE project. CSA was supported by the Danish Council for Independent Research│Nature and Universe (Grant no. 09-064954/FNU). FSt was supported by NSF ARC 0909373 and by WHOI’s Ocean and Climate Change Institute and MHRI was supported by the Danish Agency for Science, Technology and Innovation.2012-06-1

Adherence to recommendations by infectious disease consultants and its influence on outcomes of intravenous antibiotic-treated hospitalized patients

BACKGROUND: Consultation to infectious diseases specialists (ID), although not always performed by treating physicians, is part of hospital's daily practice. This study analyses adherence by treating physicians to written ID recommendations (inserted in clinical records) and its effect on outcome in hospitalized antibiotic-treated patients in a tertiary hospital in Spain. METHODS: A prospective, randomized, one-year study was performed. Patients receiving intravenous antimicrobial therapy prescribed by treating physicians for 3 days were identified and randomised to intervention (insertion of written ID recommendations in clinical records) or non-intervention. Appropriateness of empirical treatments (by treating physicians) was classified as adequate, inadequate or unnecessary. In the intervention group, adherence to recommendations was classified as complete, partial or non-adherence. RESULTS: A total of 1173 patients were included, 602 in the non-intervention and 571 in the intervention group [199 (34.9%) showing complete adherence, 141 (24.7%) partial adherence and 231 (40.5%) non-adherence to recommendations]. In the multivariate analysis for adherence (R2 Cox=0.065, p=0.009), non-adherence was associated with prolonged antibiotic prophylaxis (p=0.004; OR=0.37, 95%CI=0.19-0.72). In the multivariate analysis for clinical failure (R2 Cox=0.126, p<0.001), Charlson index (p<0.001; OR=1.19, 95%CI=1.10-1.28), malnutrition (p=0.006; OR=2.00, 95%CI=1.22-3.26), nosocomial infection (p<0.001; OR=4.12, 95%CI=2.27-7.48) and length of hospitalization (p<0.001; OR=1.01, 95%CI=1.01-1.02) were positively associated with failure, while complete adherence (p=0.001; OR=0.35, 95%CI=0.19-0.64) and adequate initial treatment (p=0.010; OR=0.39, 95%CI=0.19-0.80) were negatively associated. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to ID recommendations by treating physicians was associated with favorable outcome, in turn associated with shortened length of hospitalization. This may have important health-economic benefits and stimulates further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN83234896. http://www.controlled-trials.com/isrctn/sample_documentation.asp