Using causal loop diagrams to develop evaluative research propositions: opportunities and challenges in applications to nature‐based solutions

This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are often used to provide an overview of important systemic elements related to an issue, rather than to inform empirical evaluations (studies which assess changes following an intervention using observed data). We suggest that empirical evaluations may benefit from the development of systems‐informed research propositions (specific testable causal assumptions with an emphasis on feedback loops) used to guide subsequent data collection, hypothesis testing and interpretation. We describe a qualitative systems‐thinking informed approach building on preexisting CLDs, published evidence, and expert/stakeholder consultation and reflect on our experience applying this to the early stages of two nature‐based solution (NBS) evaluations. We reflect on our experience and suggest that CLDs can be usefully employed to develop systems‐informed research propositions to inform subsequent empirical evaluation. This may lead to novel policy‐relevant research propositions which differ substantially from effectiveness‐oriented (“did it work?”) research questions.European Union’s Horizon 2020European Union’s Horizon 202

Street trees and mental health: developing systems thinking-informed hypotheses using causal loop diagraming

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Resilience Alliance via the DOI in this recordData availability: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in the Appendix.We considered the relationship between street trees and mental health with the aim of developing systems thinking-informed hypotheses to improve the implementation and evaluation of this popular nature-based solution (NBS). We integrated qualitative and quantitative evidence using causal loop diagraming (CLD), and then further analyzed and extended these diagrams with the aid of systems archetypes to identify key system structures. From these CLDs, we identified three systems thinking-informed hypotheses: 1) although there are many ways in which street trees may improve mental health, tree health is critical in realizing many of these benefits and minimizing dis-benefits; 2) communities which have benefited from street trees in the past are more likely to be able to advocate for additional trees, further entrenching historical inequities in street tree distribution; and 3) efforts to address these inequities through new tree planting initiatives may ultimately fail or even exacerbate existing challenges if they do not include sustained resources for tree maintenance, with direct and indirect impacts on inequities in mental health. Using a systems thinking lens was a useful way to deeply consider a purported but under-theorized co-benefit of a popular nature-based solution and identify policy-relevant hypotheses to guide future research.European Union Horizon 202

Valuing the commons : an international study on the recreational benefits of the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea provides benefits to all of the nine nations along its coastline, with some 85 million people living within the catchment area. Achieving improvements in water quality requires international cooperation. The likelihood of effective cooperation is known to depend on the distribution across countries of the benefits and costs of actions needed to improve water quality. In this paper, we estimate the benefits associated with recreational use of the Baltic Sea in current environmental conditions using a travel cost approach, based on data from a large, standardized survey of households in each of the 9 Baltic Sea states. Both the probability of engaging in recreation (participation) and the number of visits people make are modeled. A large variation in the number of trips and the extent of participation is found, along with large differences in current annual economic benefits from Baltic Sea recreation. The total annual recreation benefits are close to 15 billion EUR. Under a water quality improvement scenario, the proportional increases in benefits range from 7 to 18% of the current annual benefits across countries. Depending on how the costs of actions are distributed, this could imply difficulties in achieving more international cooperation to achieve such improvements.PostprintPeer reviewe

Provision of aquatic ecosystem services as a consequence of societal changes: The case of the Baltic Sea

Aquatic ecosystem services are important for human wellbeing, but they are much less studied than terrestrial ecosystem services. The objectives of this study are to broaden, itemize and exemplify the human-nature interactions in modeling the future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. We include shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, used extensively in climate research, as drivers of change for the future development of the Baltic Sea. Then we use biogeochemical and ecosystem models to demonstrate the future development of exemplary supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services for two distinct combinations of regionally downscaled global climate and socioeconomic futures. According to the model simulations, the two global futures ("Sustainable well-being" vs. "Fossil-fuelled development") studied lead to clearly deviating trajectories in the provision of marine ecosystem services. Under the "Sustainable well-being"-scenario primary production decreases by 20%, catches of demersal fish increases and the recreation opportunities increase significantly by the end of the ongoing century. Under the "fossil-fuelled development"-scenario primary production doubles, fisheries focus on less valued pelagic fish and the recreation possibilities will decrease. Long-term projections of aquatic ecosystem services prepared for alternative global socioeconomic futures can be used by policy makers and managers to adaptively and iteratively adjust mitigation and adaptation effort with plausible future changes in the drivers of water pollution.Peer reviewe

Building climate resilience through nature-based solutions in Europe: A review of enabling knowledge, finance and governance frameworks

The European Union (EU) has firmly positioned itself as a global leader in promoting and implementing nature-based solutions (NBS). The recently released EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, and Forest Strategy - all representing key pillars of the ambitious European Green Deal (EGD) - rely on NBS to both preserve and restore ecosystem integrity and increase climate resilience. Although research and policy in Europe have advanced the conceptualization and operationalization of NBS, a much wider adoption is needed to reach the ambitious goals of the EGD and fulfil its vision of transforming into a sustainable, climate-neutral, climate resilient, fair, and prosperous EU by 2050. In this paper, we review recent EU-supported research, policy, and practices to identify critical dimensions that still need to be addressed for greater uptake of NBS. While recognising the multiple societal challenges NBS can target, we build on the key messages from the ‘5th European Climate Change Adaptation conference ECCA 2021′ and focus our analysis on NBS for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. We screen a wide range of NBS cases across the EU and identify-three core challenges to implementation: the lack of a comprehensive evidence base on the effectiveness of NBS to address targeted challenges; the need for a greater involvement of the private sector in financing NBS; and opportunities for enhancing stakeholder engagement in the successful design and implementation of NBS. We take these challenges as the starting point for a broader reflection and critical discussion on the role of i) knowledge, i) finance, including investments in NBS and divestments from nature-negative projects, and iii) governance and policy frameworks to enable the uptake of NBS. We conclude by identifying options for the EU to foster the uptake of NBS in research, policy and practice

Urban-Rural Dependencies and Opportunities to Design Nature-Based Solutions for Resilience in Europe and China

This is the final version. Available on open access from MDPI via the DOI in this recordData Availability Statement: No new data were created or analyzed in this study. Data sharing is not applicable to this article.Interrelationships between urban and rural areas are fundamental for the development and safeguarding of viable future living conditions and quality of life. These areas are not well-delineated or self-sufficient, and existing interrelations may privilege one over the other. Major urban challenges facing China and Europe are related to changes in climate, environment, and to decision-making that makes urban and rural landscapes more susceptible to environmental pressures. Focusing on the six European and Chinese cities and surrounding rural areas, under study in the joint EC and MOST-funded REGREEN project, we examine how nature-based solutions (NBS) may assist in counteracting these pressures. We explore urban-rural dependencies and partnerships regarding NBS that can enhance resilience in Europe and China. We analyse differences between European and Chinese systems of governance, reflecting on the significance of the scale of research needed to understand how NBS provide benefits. We highlight interactions between differently delineated sheds (watershed, airshed, natureshed, and peopleshed), which influence the interrelationships between urban and rural areas. There may be one-way or two-way interdependence, and the impact may be uni or multi-directional. The European and Chinese solutions, exemplified in this article, tackle the nexus of environmental and peoplesheds. We discuss complex human interactions (and how to model them) that may, or may not, lead to viable and equitable partnerships for implementing NBS in cities within Europe and in China.European Union Horizon 2020National Key R&D Program Intergovernmental Cooperation in International Science and Technology Innovation, Ministry of Science and Technology of Chin

A typology for urban Green Infrastructure, to guide multifunctional planning of nature-based solutions

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this record Data Availability: No data was used for the research described in the article.Urban Green Infrastructure (GI) provides multiple benefits to city inhabitants and can be an important component in nature-based solutions (NBS), but the ecosystem services that underpin those benefits are inconsistently quantified in the literature. There remain substantial knowledge gaps about the level of service supported by less studied GI types, e.g. cemeteries, or less-studied ecosystem services, e.g. noise mitigation. Decision-makers and planners in cities often face conflicting or incomplete information on the effectiveness of GI, particularly on their ability to provide a suite of co-benefits. Here, we describe a feature-based typology of GI which combines elements of land cover, land use and both ecological and social function. It is consistent with user requirements on mapping, and with the needs of models which can conduct more detailed ecosystem service assessments which can guide NBS design. We provide an evidence synthesis based on published literature, which scores the ability of each GI type to deliver a suite of ecosystem services. In the multivariate analysis of the typology scores, the main axis of variation differentiates between constructed (or hybrid) GI types designed primarily for water flow management (delivering relatively few services) and more natural green GI with trees, or blue GI such as lakes and the sea, which deliver a more multi-functional set of regulating services. The most multi-functional GI on this axis also score highest for biodiversity. The second element of variation separates those GI which support very few cultural services and those which score highly in enabling physical wellbeing and social interaction and, to a lesser extent, restoring capacities. Together the typology and multi-functionality matrix provide a much needed assessment for less studied GI types, and allow planners and decision-makers to make a-priori assessments of the relative ability of different GI as part of NBS to address urban challenges.European CommissionMinistry of Science and Technology of ChinaNatural Environment Research Council (NERC