A volcano's pulse

Before the 1995 Soufrière Hills eruption began, there had been seismic crises approximately every 30 years since the late 1890s; each crisis lasted months to years and involved thousands of small earthquakes. In 1935, some earthquakes were large enough to cause damage to buildings in the capital Plymouth and there was real concern that an eruption was imminent. These seismic crises were later interpreted as pulses of magma trying, but failing, to reach the surface. A final seismic crisis began in 1992, and by November 1995 fresh lava had reached the surface and began to form a dome in the volcano’s summit crater. The eruption has since been characterised by pulsatory activity on a range of different timescales

UK hazards from a large Icelandic effusive eruption. Effusive Eruption Modelling Project final report

In response to the recent introduction of large, long-lasting gas-rich volcanic eruptions to the UK National Risk Register (risk H55) a modelling project has been conducted to improve our understanding of potential hazards to the UK from such an eruption on Iceland. A precautionary “reasonable worst case” eruption scenario based on the 1783-1784 CE Laki eruption has been determined using the results of an expert elicitation of scientists. This scenario has been simulated 80 times using two different atmospheric chemistry and transport models (NAME and EMEP4UK) over 10 years of meteorology (2003-2012). The results provide information on the range of concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO2), sulphate aerosol (SO4) and some halogen species that might be experienced in the UK during such an eruption and the likelihood of key thresholds being exceeded and the duration of their exceedance. Data for the surface and for a range of key flight altitudes have been produced. These are evaluated against the threshold bandings of the UK’s Air Quality Index (AQI). The impact on UK ecosystems has also been considered. The data are intended to be used by UK Government Departments for further research into the impacts on the aviation, health, environmental and agricultural sectors. The results show that the prevailing meteorological conditions are the key influence on which parts of the North Atlantic and European region are affected at any time. The results demonstrate that the UK is unlikely to be affected by week after week of significantly elevated concentrations; rather there will a number of short (hours to days) pollution episodes where concentrations at the surface would be elevated bove Moderate and High air quality index levels. This pattern reflects the generally changeable nature of the weather in the UK. At the surface, consecutive exceedance durations are longer for SO4 than SO2, and can be particularly lengthy (1-2 weeks) in the Low air quality index levels, which may be of relevance to health impact assessments. The indications of potential peak concentrations and their corresponding AQI exceedance probabilities within this report serve to inform national, high-level generic risk planning. For more specific response planning, a much larger modelling study with multiple eruption scenarios and a greater number of meteorological realisations would be needed

Conducting volcanic ash cloud exercises: practising forecast evaluation procedures and the pull-through of scientific advice to the London VAAC

The London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) provides forecasts on the expected presence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere to mitigate the risk to aviation. It is fundamentally important that operational capability is regularly tested through exercises, to guarantee an effective response to an event. We have developed exercises which practise the pull-through of scientific advice into the London VAAC, the forecast evaluation process, and the decision-making procedures and discussions needed for generating the best possible forecasts under real-time conditions. London VAAC dispersion model forecasts are evaluated against observations. To test this capability in an exercise, we must create observation data for a hypothetical event. We have developed new methodologies for generating and using simulated satellite and lidar retrievals. These simulated observations enable us to practise our ability to interpret, compare, and evaluate model output and observation data under real-time conditions. Forecast evaluation can benefit from an understanding of how different choices of model setup (input parameters), model physics, and driving meteorological data impact the predicted extent and concentration of ash. Through our exercises, we have practised comparing output from model simulations generated using different models, model setups, and meteorological data, supplied by different institutions. Our exercises also practise the communication and interaction between Met Office (UK) scientists supporting the London VAAC and external experts, enabling knowledge exchange and discussions on the interpretation of model output and observations, as we strive to deliver the best response capability for the aviation industry and stakeholders. In this paper, we outline our exercise methodology, including the use of simulated satellite and lidar observations, and the development of the strategy to compare output generated from different modelling systems. We outline the lessons learnt, including the benefits and challenges of conducting exercises which practise our ability to provide scientific advice for an operational response at the London VAAC

Magmatic crystal records in time, space, and process, causatively linked with volcanic unrest

How a volcano has behaved throughout its past is a guide to its future behaviour. Detailed knowledge of what preceded eruptions from specific volcanoes, and how this can be recognised in real-time, are pivotal questions of this field. Here, the physical history of the magma that erupted in 2010 from the flank of Eyjafjallajökull volcano, Iceland, is reconstructed in absolute time and space using only chemical records from erupted crystals. The details of this reconstruction include the number of magma bodies, their geometry, their depth, their relative inflation rate and changes to all of the aforementioned through time. Petrology and geodesy (data gathered in real-time) arrive at the same set of conclusions. As such, we report detailed agreement, which demonstrates a causative link between knowledge determined post-eruption via a physical–chemical perspective and knowledge gained syn-eruption from monitoring signals. The composition of olivine crystal cores (∼Fo74–87), and that of the chemical zonation around each core caused by disequilibrium processes, are shown to form systematic patterns at the population scale. Reverse zonation (toward Mg rich) exhibits a constant chemical offset from its crystal core (≤2 mol % Fo), while normal zonation (toward Fe rich) converges to a single composition (∼Fo75). Conventional petrological models — for instance multiple-magma-mixing across a range of crustal depths — can explain the presence of a range of crystal core composition in the erupted rocks, but cannot explain these patterns of crystal disequilibria. Instead, we describe how a single primitive melt produces crystals over a wide range in composition and generates systematic disequilibrium. Cooling causes crystal production from both roof and floor of a horizontal magma geometry. Crystal settling causes asymmetric thermal – and therefore compositional – stratification of the melt due to progressive insulation via development of a crystal mush at the floor, a process we term “Crystal Rain”. Crucially, each crystal's record is both a cause and effect of the internal process of simultaneous fractional crystallisation and settling; no external processes or materials are required. We then extract temporal information from our crystals using Fe–Mg interdiffusion modelling, and combine it with the composition and zonation data. The concept of Crystal Rain is applied, and resolves two thin (metres) sills which are staggered in time and depth, and exhibit different inflation rates. Since the approach of integrating crystal chronology within a causative physical framework may be applied to entire volcanic successions, it has potential to yield valuable insights to past, and by inference future, magmatic and volcanic behaviours by deterministic means

The contribution of X-linked coding variation to severe developmental disorders

Abstract: Over 130 X-linked genes have been robustly associated with developmental disorders, and X-linked causes have been hypothesised to underlie the higher developmental disorder rates in males. Here, we evaluate the burden of X-linked coding variation in 11,044 developmental disorder patients, and find a similar rate of X-linked causes in males and females (6.0% and 6.9%, respectively), indicating that such variants do not account for the 1.4-fold male bias. We develop an improved strategy to detect X-linked developmental disorders and identify 23 significant genes, all of which were previously known, consistent with our inference that the vast majority of the X-linked burden is in known developmental disorder-associated genes. Importantly, we estimate that, in male probands, only 13% of inherited rare missense variants in known developmental disorder-associated genes are likely to be pathogenic. Our results demonstrate that statistical analysis of large datasets can refine our understanding of modes of inheritance for individual X-linked disorders

Volcano watch

On 20 May 2006, the huge lava dome at the summit of the Soufriere Hills volcano on Montserrat in the West Indies collapsed, sending clouds of ash and gas 20 kilometres up into the atmosphere. Pyroclastic flows of hot gas, ash and rock swept out of the horseshoe-shaped crater into the Tar River valley, and small tsunamis hit Antigua and Guadeloupe. There were no casualties because seriously affected areas had been evacuated long ago, though significant damage was caused by massive clouds of ash falling on farmland and property. Despite the misery of ash clean-up and the loss of animals and crops, this was a well-timed collapse given the circumstances at the volcano. If it had happened any later the consequences could have been much worse

Explosive research : monitoring Montserrat's volcano : past, present, and future

Since 1995, British Geological Survey researchers have been monitoring an explosive volcano on the Caribbean island of Montserrat. Sue Loughlin, Brian Baptie and Bill McCourt discuss the handover to Caribbean volcanologists and their plans for the huge volumes of data in their hands

Sediment-charged flash floods on Montserrat : the influence of synchronous tephra fall and varying extent of vegetation damage

On 20th May 2006 the Soufrière Hills Volcano on the Caribbean island of Montserrat experienced a large dome collapse and intense rainfall generated flash floods. The floods had very high loads of volcanic debris derived both from this and previous eruptions and can thus be classified as lahars. The floods reached unusually high water levels and caused substantial geomorphic change in the Belham Valley. Detailed rainfall and geomorphological data, coupled with the precise timing of events and yewitness accounts have facilitated an assessment of the relative importance of rainfall volume and intensity, older volcanic debris, pre- and syn-flood tephra fall and the extent of pre-flood vegetation damage for the behavior of this and subsequent sediment-laden floods in this setting. The change in runoff behavior was controlled by preexisting vegetation damage and synchronous tephra fall and this was critically important in controlling the impact of these flash floods. Although rainfall intensity and volume have some control on flood occurrence they are not the critical control on flash flood impact on the geomorphology in the Belham Valley. A significant conclusion of this study is that the extreme nature of the flash floods was not caused by extreme rainfall (as is commonly believed to be the primary cause of flash floods) but rather it was the result of changed runoff behaviour caused by the widespread syn-flood tephra deposition and importantly the widespread vegetation damage by volcanic-associated acid rain in the preceding weeks

Dome forming eruptions: a global hazards database [abstract only]

Lava dome forming volcanic eruptions are common throughout the world. They can be dangerous; nearly all dome-forming eruptions have been associated with explosive activity (Newhall and Melson, 1983). Most explosions are vulcanian with eruption plumes reaching less than 15km, and with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) <3 (for a definition of VEI see Newhall and Self 1982). Large Plinian explosions with a VEI ≥ 4 do sometimes occur in association with dome-forming eruptions. Many of the most significant volcanic events of recent history are in this category. The 1902-1905 eruption of Mt. Pelée, Martinique; the 1980-1986 eruption of Mount St. Helens, USA; and the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines all demonstrate the destructive power of VEI ≥ 4 dome-forming eruptions. Hazards related to dome-forming eruptions are numerous and range from dome-collapse and column-collapse pyroclastic flows and surges to tephra fall to directed blasts, lahars, and landslides. Global historical analysis is a powerful tool for decision-making as well as for scientific discovery. In the absence of monitoring data or a knowledge of a volcano’s eruptive history, global analysis can provide a method of understanding what might be expected based on similar eruptions. Important scientific information has been gleaned from disparate collections of dome-forming eruption hazard information, and modeling of volcanic phenomena often requires extensive data for development and calibration. This study investigates the relationship between large explosive eruptions (VEI ≥ 4) and lava dome-growth from 1000 BCE to present and develops a world-wide database of all relevant information, including dome growth duration, pauses between episodes of dome growth, and extrusion rates. Data sources include the database of volcanic activity maintained by the Smithsonian Institute (Global Volcanism Program) and all relevant published review papers, research papers and reports. Hazards related to dome-forming eruptions, including pyroclastic falls, rockfalls, tephra fall, lahars, and debris avalanches have also been catalogued for Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Analysis of the databases has provided useful information regarding the relationship between extrusion rates and large explosions, the identification of patterns in eruptive frequency between different volcanoes, and the timing of large explosions in relation to dome growth. Relational databases will be compiled to allow users to query the database, and additional dome-forming eruption hazard data is requested from any interested parties