Bloch oscillations of backward volume magnetostatic spin waves

This is the final version. Available from the American Physical Society via the DOI in this recordWe have used numerical micromagnetic simulations to propose a feasible candidate system in which Bloch oscillations of spin waves could be observed experimentally. Our simulations demonstrate these phenomena for backward volume magnetostatic spin waves (BVMSWs) in a film of yttrium-iron-garnet in a spatially varying bias magnetic field comprising a sinusoidal and gradient contributions. Despite the complex character of the BVMSW dispersion relation, the spin-wave packets are distinctly confined by the field gradient, while showing only minor broadening over the simulation time.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)European Union Horizon 202

Self-organizing maps of typhoon tracks allow for flood forecasts up to two days in advance

[[abstract]]Typhoons are among the greatest natural hazards along East Asian coasts. Typhoon-related precipitation can produce flooding that is often only predictable a few hours in advance. Here, we present a machine-learning method comparing projected typhoon tracks with past trajectories, then using the information to predict flood hydrographs for a watershed on Taiwan. The hydrographs provide early warning of possible flooding prior to typhoon landfall, and then real-time updates of expected flooding along the typhoon’s path. The method associates different types of typhoon tracks with landscape topography and runoff data to estimate the water inflow into a reservoir, allowing prediction of flood hydrographs up to two days in advance with continual updates. Modelling involves identifying typhoon track vectors, clustering vectors using a self-organizing map, extracting flow characteristic curves, and predicting flood hydrographs. This machine learning approach can significantly improve existing flood warning systems and provide early warnings to reservoir management.[[notice]]補正完

Detecting impacts of invasive non-native sharptooth catfish, Clarias gariepinus, within invaded and non-invaded rivers.

In aquatic ecosystems, impacts by invasive introduced fish can be likened to press disturbances that persistently influence communities. This study examined invasion disturbances by determining the relationship between non-native sharptooth catfish Clarias gariepinus and aquatic macroinvertebrates in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. A Multiple Before–After Control–Impact (MBACI) experimental design was used to examine macroinvertebrate communities within two rivers: one with catfish and another one without catfish. Within the invaded river, macroinvertebrates showed little response to catfish presence, whereas predator exclusion appeared to benefit community structure. This suggests that the macroinvertebrate community within the invaded river was adapted to predation impact because of the dominance of resilient taxa, such as Hirudinea, Oligochaeta and Chironomidae that were abundant in the Impact treatment relative to the Control treatment. High macroinvertebrate diversity and richness that was observed in the Control treatment, which excluded the predator, relative to the Impact treatment suggests predator avoidance behaviour within the invaded river. By comparison, within the uninvaded river, catfish introduction into the Impact treatment plots indicated negative effects on macroinvertebrate community that was reflected by decrease in diversity, richness and biomass. A community level impact was also reflected in the multivariate analysis that indicated more variation in macroinvertebrate composition within the Impact treatment relative to the Control in the uninvaded river. Catfish impact within the uninvaded river suggests the dominance of vulnerable taxa, such as odonates that were less abundant in the Impact treatment plots after catfish introduction. From a disturbance perspective, this study revealed different macroinvertebrate responses to catfish impact, and suggests that within invaded habitats, macroinvertebrates were less responsive to catfish presence, whereas catfish introduction within uninvaded habitats demonstrated invasion impact that was shown by a decrease in the abundance of vulnerable taxa. The occurrence of non-native sharptooth catfish within many Eastern Cape rivers is a concern because of its predation impact and potential to influence trophic interrelationships, and efforts should be taken to protect uninvaded rivers, and, where possible, eradicate the invader

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Assessment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in Oxfordshire, UK, 2007-12, with whole pathogen genome sequences: An observational study

Background: Patients born outside the UK have contributed to a 20% rise in the UK's tuberculosis incidence since 2000, but their effect on domestic transmission is not known. Here we use whole-genome sequencing to investigate the epidemiology of tuberculosis transmission in an unselected population over 6 years. Methods: We identified all residents with Oxfordshire postcodes with a Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture or a clinical diagnosis of tuberculosis between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2012, using local databases and checking against the national Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance database. We used Illumina technology to sequence all available M tuberculosis cultures from identified cases. Sequences were clustered by genetic relatedness and compared retrospectively with contact investigations. The first patient diagnosed in each cluster was defined as the index case, with links to subsequent cases assigned first by use of any epidemiological linkage, then by genetic distance, and then by timing of diagnosis. Findings: Although we identified 384 patients with a diagnosis of tuberculosis, country of birth was known for 380 and we sequenced isolates from 247 of 269 cases with culture-confirmed disease. 39 cases were genomically linked within 13 clusters, implying 26 local transmission events. Only 11 of 26 possible transmissions had been previously identified through contact tracing. Of seven genomically confirmed household clusters, five contained additional genomic links to epidemiologically unidentified non-household members. 255 (67%) patients were born in a country with high tuberculosis incidence, conferring a local incidence of 109 cases per 100000 population per year in Oxfordshire, compared with 3·5 cases per 100000 per year for those born in low-incidence countries. However, patients born in the low-incidence countries, predominantly UK, were more likely to have pulmonary disease (adjusted odds ratio 1·8 [95% CI 1·2-2·9]; p=0·009), social risk factors (4·4 [2·0-9·4]; p&lt;0·0001), and be part of a local transmission cluster (4·8 [1·6-14·8]; p=0·006). Interpretation: Although inward migration has contributed to the overall tuberculosis incidence, our findings suggest that most patients born in high-incidence countries reactivate latent infection acquired abroad and are not involved in local onward transmission. Systematic screening of new entrants could further improve tuberculosis control, but it is important that health care remains accessible to all individuals, especially high-risk groups, if tuberculosis control is not to be jeopardised. Funding: UK Clinical Research Collaboration (Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research [NIHR]), and NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. © 2014 Walker et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY