Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?

Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model

H - T phase diagram of YbCo2Si2 with H // [100]

We report on the first high-resolution dc-magnetisation ($M$) measurements on a single crystal of \ycs. $M$ was measured down to 0.05 K and in fields up to 12 T, with the magnetic field $H$ parallel to the crystallographic direction [100]. Two antiferromagnetic (AFM) phase transitions have been detected in a field $\mu_{0}H = 0.1$ T at $T_{N} = 1.75$ K and $T_{L} = 0.9$ K, in form of a sharp cusp and a sudden drop in $\chi = M/H$, respectively. These signatures suggest that the phase transitions are $2^{nd}$ order at $T_{N}$ and $1^{st}$ order at $T_{L}$. The upper transition is suppressed by a critical field $\mu_{0}H_{N} = 1.9$ T. The field-dependent magnetisation shows two hysteretic metamagnetic-like steps at the lowest temperature, followed by a sharp kink, which separates the AFM region from the paramagnetic one. The magnetic $H - T$ phase diagram of \ycs has been deduced from the isothermal and isofield curves. Four AFM regions were identified which are separated by $1^{st}$ and $2^{nd}$ order phase-transition lines.Comment: 5 Pages, 3 figure

The Business Fallout from the Rapid Obsolescence and PlannedObsolescence of High-Tech Products: Downsizing of Noncompetition Agreements

The recent rapid pace of technological change has made human capital more important, yet it has rendered the employee’s knowledge base obsolete more quickly. Employers use covenants not to compete, restricting employees from switching to work for competitors, in order to retain knowledgeable personnel. Currently, the lack of predictability in interpreting noncompete agreements allows employers to draft overly-lengthy noncompetes, encourages enforcement litigation, and curtails employees from changing jobs because of the fear of litigation. Employees should not be prevented from working for competitors for longer than is necessary to protect the employer’s legitimate interest. Use of obsolescence as a guide in drafting noncompete agreements should provide the protection employers need without overburdening the employee’s option to change jobs. Judges should utilize court-appointed obsolescence experts in order to determine the useful life of employee knowledge and should limit noncompete agreements accordingly. This judicial scrutiny should encourage employers to tie restrictions directly to obsolescence of employee knowledge, improving both predictability and fairness of noncompete agreements

A critical assessment of the long term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis

This study investigates the robustness of the long-term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the ERA20C reanalysis. A statistically significant trend in the AO is found in ERA20C over the period 1900-2010. These long-term changes in the AO are not found in two other observational datasets. The long term change in the AO in ERA20C is associated with statistically significant negative trend (approximately -6hPa per century) in mean-sea level pressure (MSLP) over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar regions. This is not seen in the HADSLP2 observational dataset, suggesting that the trends in the ERA20C AO index may be spurious. The spurious long term changes in MSLP and the AO index in ERA20C result in a strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient in ERA20C. The strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient is consistent with increases in wintertime storminess in Northern Europe and the NH high latitudes

Preliminary evaluation of spectral, normal and meteorological crop stage estimation approaches

Several of the projects in the AgRISTARS program require crop phenology information, including classification, acreage and yield estimation, and detection of episodal events. This study evaluates several crop calendar estimation techniques for their potential use in the program. The techniques, although generic in approach, were developed and tested on spring wheat data collected in 1978. There are three basic approaches to crop stage estimation: historical averages for an area (normal crop calendars), agrometeorological modeling of known crop-weather relationships agrometeorological (agromet) crop calendars, and interpretation of spectral signatures (spectral crop calendars). In all, 10 combinations of planting and biostage estimation models were evaluated. Dates of stage occurrence are estimated with biases between -4 and +4 days while root mean square errors range from 10 to 15 days. Results are inconclusive as to the superiority of any of the models and further evaluation of the models with the 1979 data set is recommended

The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high resolution global climate model data

Extratropical cyclones are the most damaging natural hazard to affect western Europe. Serial clustering occurs when many intense cyclones affect one specific geographic region in a short period of time which can potentially lead to very large seasonal losses. Previous studies have shown that intense cyclones may be more likely to cluster than less intense cyclones. We revisit this topic using a high resolution climate model with the aim to determine how important clustering is for windstorm related losses. The role of windstorm clustering is investigated using a quantifiable metric (storm severity index, SSI) that is based on near surface meteorological variables (10-metre wind speed) and is a good proxy for losses. The SSI is used to convert a wind footprint into losses for individual windstorms or seasons. 918 years of a present-day ensemble of coupled climate model simulations from the High-Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) are compared to ERA-Interim re-analysis. HiGEM is able to successfully reproduce the wintertime North Atlantic/European circulation, and represent the large-scale circulation associated with the serial clustering of European windstorms. We use two measures to identify any changes in the contribution of clustering to the seasonal windstorm loss as a function of return period. Above a return period of 3 years, the accumulated seasonal loss from HiGEM is up to 20% larger than the accumulated seasonal loss from a set of random resamples of the HiGEM data. Seasonal losses are increased by 10-20% relative to randomised seasonal losses at a return period of 200 years. The contribution of the single largest event in a season to the accumulated seasonal loss does not change with return period, generally ranging between 25-50%. Given the realistic dynamical representation of cyclone clustering in HiGEM, and comparable statistics to ERA-Interim, we conclude that our estimation of clustering and its dependence on the return period will be useful for informing the development of risk models for European windstorms, particularly for longer return periods

An Ultrastructural Analysis of the Physical Organization of Collagenous (Type I) Matrices: One Determinant of Urothelium Maintenance In Vitro

Collagenous matrices, used as cell culture substrata, can be prepared from different collagen types in a variety of forms using a range of polymerization procedures. Type I collagen has been most frequently used either as dried collagen films or hydrated collagen gels. Sheets of isolated bladder urothelium, when plated onto such matrices prepared from type I collagen by different polymerization methods (eg. air-drying; NaOH; NaCl; NH3; or NH3 followed by glutaraldehyde crosslinking) demonstrate the capability of urothelial cells to attach to a variety of differently prepared matrices irrespective of polymerization procedure. In contrast, both cell proliferation and maintenance of the urothelium are markedly influenced by the polymerized form of the collagen matrix. Comparative ultrastructural (scanning and transmission electron microscopy) analysis of these matrices demonstrates dissimilarities in their physical organization. The level of filamentous, fibrillar or fibrous reaggregation of solubilized collagen molecules varies in relation to the polymerization procedure used viz, a) air dried matrices form a dense meshwork of many forms of collagen fibrils and associated filaments with an irregular surface array of coarser collagen fibres; b) matrices prepared by NaOH, NaCl and NH3 polymerization present no major differences and form a felt of interlocking collagen fibres with discrete filamentous networks associated with these fibres; and c) matrices polymerized by NH3 and crosslinked with glutaraldehyde form a dense meshwork of filaments with a more occasional distribution of fibrils associated with filaments or dense amorphous aggregates. The level of supramolecular reassemblage of solubilized collagen may be, therefore, a significant factor in determining urothelial cell growth and differentiation on collagen matrices