THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND ROMANIAN CORPORATE DEFAULT RATES BETWEEN 2002-2008

During its 20 year history of market economy, Romania experienced the most severe downturn in 2009, which resulted in many cost, mainly because of the output loss. These conditions forced several firms to declare bankruptcy and to stop their activity. The aim of this research is to assess the relationship between the corporate default rates and the macroeconomic processes in the case of Romania for the period comprised between 2002Q1-2008Q4. For this, based on the relevant literature, we ranked the potential explanatory variables of the default rates into seven groups: cyclical indicators, household indicators, corporate indicators, external sector indicators, price stability indicators and interest rates, loans to private sector and finally the capital market indicators. Some studies base their results only on accounting data, others only on market data. Our study focuses on both, since this seems to be an adequate approach in capturing most of the processes. Similar to the banks' loan portfolio structure, we conducted analysis for five sectors: industry, construction, agriculture, services and the overall economy. For each sector the average default probability at time t is modeled as a logistic function of many general and sector-specific macroeconomic variables. The use of logistic regression was motivated by its ability to account for fractional data between 0 and 1. We found that at least one variable from each group has a significant explanatory power regarding the evolution of the default rates in all five sectors analyzed. In some cases the sign of the variables was the opposite of what the economic theory would have suggested, but it has to be taken into account that Romania posted the picture of an overheated economy during the analyzed period. Another important conclusion was that many variables were significant through their lagged value, which indicates an even better supervision of the evolution of the specific variables. From all the variables, the volatility of the BET-C index proves to be the most important in predicting the evolution of the default rates, as it didn't proved to be significant only for the construction sector. The evolution of FDI and the volatility of the BET-C index proved to be very important in determining the evolution of the corporate default rates, as well. The first was a very important factor in the financing of companies, especially during the analyzed period, and the risk meter is something that never should be disregarded when it comes of analyzing default rates.corporate default rate, macroeconomic processes, economic imbalances, logistic regression, lagged effects

OVERVIEW OF THE RELEVANT INDICATORS OF DEFAULTED AND NON-DEFAULTED COMPANIES AND POSSIBILITIES OF IMPROVEMENT FOR THE RATING SYSTEMS USED BY THE ROMANIAN COMMERCIAL BANKS

Since the beginning of the financial and economic crises many news came to light which discussed the increasing number of non-performing loans, and the fact that as a result of the company break-downs, the bank portfolios have also gone worse and worse. In this paper our goal is to find out which internal factors influence the solvency of a company, therefore, to point out the weaknesses of the current Romanian rating systems, which as we will see, do not take into only relevant criteria when according a loan to a company. In order to conduct this study, we choose 18 indicators from several categories to predict bankruptcy. Some of the indicators mentioned above are really common in the international and the Romanian literature (e.g. ROA, ROE, ROS, assets turnover ratio), some of them are less. On a sample of 3000 Romanian companies we use the T-test statistical method to find out if an indicator is significant or not. The sample consists of companies (defaulted and non-defaulted as well) which have presented their financial statements (balance, profit and loss account between 1999 and 2008). For each company a set of 18 financial indicators was calculated, but the results obtained show that only 8 of them is significant in predicting bankruptcy: ROA, assets turnover ratio, equity/total assets, general leverage, current assets to total assets, cash to total assets, total assets and sales. In the next step, by analyzing the obligatory forms used in credit lending, we conclude which indicators are used by different Romanian commercial banks. We found that only four out of seven banks calculate all of the significant indicators identified in the first part of the paper. Finally, we made a proposal about which quantitative indicators should the banks use to minimize the credit losses and to avoid the overdue payments. In addition, we consider that the banks should pay attention to the qualitative factors as well to effectively filter out non-performing loans.corporate failure, default, risk, financial ratios, rating systems, Romania

Internal and external aspects of freedom of choice in mental health: cultural and linguistic adaptation of the Hungarian version of the Oxford CAPabilities questionnaire—Mental Health (OxCAP-MH)

Background: A link between mental health and freedom of choice has long been established, in fact, the loss of freedom of choice is one of the possible defining features of mental disorders. Freedom of choice has internal and external aspects explicitly identified within the capability approach, but received little explicit attention in capability instruments. This study aimed to develop a feasible and linguistically and culturally appropriate Hungarian version of the Oxford CAPabilities questionnaire—Mental Health (OxCAP-MH) for mental health outcome measurement. Methods: Following forward and back translations, a reconciled Hungarian version of the OxCAP-MH was developed following professional consensus guidelines of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the WHO. The wording of the questionnaire underwent cultural and linguistic validation through content analysis of cognitive debriefing interviews with 11 Hungarian speaking mental health patients in 2019. Results were compared with those from the development of the German version and the original English version with special focus on linguistic aspects. Results: Twenty-nine phrases were translated. There were linguistic differences in each question and answer options due to the high number of inflected, affixed words and word fragments that characterize the Hungarian language in general. Major linguistic differences were also revealed between the internal and external aspects of capability freedom of choices which appear much more explicit in the Hungarian than in the English or German languages. A re-analysis of the capability freedom of choice concepts in the existing language versions exposed the need for minor amendments also in the English version in order to allow the development of future culturally, linguistically and conceptually valid translations. Conclusion: The internal and external freedom of choice impacts of mental health conditions require different care/policy measures. Their explicit consideration is necessary for the conceptually harmonised operationalisation of the capability approach for (mental) health outcome measurement in diverse cultural and linguistic contexts

Expiratory flow rate, breath hold and anatomic dead space influence electronic nose ability to detect lung cancer

BACKGROUND: Electronic noses are composites of nanosensor arrays. Numerous studies showed their potential to detect lung cancer from breath samples by analysing exhaled volatile compound pattern ("breathprint"). Expiratory flow rate, breath hold and inclusion of anatomic dead space may influence the exhaled levels of some volatile compounds; however it has not been fully addressed how these factors affect electronic nose data. Therefore, the aim of the study was to investigate these effects. METHODS: 37 healthy subjects (44 +/- 14 years) and 27 patients with lung cancer (60 +/- 10 years) participated in the study. After deep inhalation through a volatile organic compound filter, subjects exhaled at two different flow rates (50 ml/sec and 75 ml/sec) into Teflon-coated bags. The effect of breath hold was analysed after 10 seconds of deep inhalation. We also studied the effect of anatomic dead space by excluding this fraction and comparing alveolar air to mixed (alveolar + anatomic dead space) air samples. Exhaled air samples were processed with Cyranose 320 electronic nose. RESULTS: Expiratory flow rate, breath hold and the inclusion of anatomic dead space significantly altered "breathprints" in healthy individuals (p 0.05). These factors also influenced the discrimination ability of the electronic nose to detect lung cancer significantly. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that expiratory flow, breath hold and dead space influence exhaled volatile compound pattern assessed with electronic nose. These findings suggest critical methodological recommendations to standardise sample collections for electronic nose measurements

Stakeholders' perspectives on the operationalisation of the ecosystem service concept : Results from 27 case studies

The ecosystem service (ES) concept is becoming mainstream in policy and planning, but operational influence on practice is seldom reported. Here, we report the practitioners' perspectives on the practical implementation of the ES concept in 27 case studies. A standardised anonymous survey (n = 246), was used, focusing on the science-practice interaction process, perceived impact and expected use of the case study assessments. Operationalisation of the concept was shown to achieve a gradual change in practices: 13% of the case studies reported a change in action (e.g. management or policy change), and a further 40% anticipated that a change would result from the work. To a large extent the impact was attributed to a well conducted science-practice interaction process (>70%). The main reported advantages of the concept included: increased concept awareness and communication; enhanced participation and collaboration; production of comprehensive science-based knowledge; and production of spatially referenced knowledge for input to planning (91% indicated they had acquired new knowledge). The limitations were mostly case-specific and centred on methodology, data, and challenges with result implementation. The survey highlighted the crucial role of communication, participation and collaboration across different stakeholders, to implement the ES concept and enhance the democratisation of nature and landscape planning. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe

Percepcja i postawy konsumentów pokolenia z wobec zrównoważonej odzieży: implikacje menedżerskie w oparciu o summatyczną analizę treści

Sustainability in the fashion industry has an importance in the global context; societies and fashion brands are taking measures to shift from non-renewable resource consumption and non-sustainable business models to a more circular economy that leads to sustainable consumption patterns. The younger members of Generation Z constitute an active and relevant fashion consumer segment with significant contributions; therefore, marketers must gain insight into the perceptions and attitudes of these young customers. The purpose of this paper is to explore the perceptions and attitudes of the younger members of Generation Z towards sustainable clothing in order to identify managerial implications and further academic research. The research was qualitative in nature, utilising semi-structured interviews and was accompanied by individual interviews with 120 active fashion shoppers aged between 18-25 years. The study examined the perceptions and sustainable fashion aspects with a positive attitude profile and the results indicate that health and environment-related values should be in focus to be more attractive for young customers. The decision-making barriers and positive keywords should be a base for effective communication strategies and marketing messages. The findings of the research show that, during their customer journey, young customers gather information mostly from the e-commerce retailer’s product descriptions, product labels, filter systems, peer-reviews, and point of sales communication assets found at the point of sale. This exploratory study acts as the first stage of further quantitative academic research.Zrównoważony rozwój w branży modowej ma znaczenie w kontekście globalnym; Społeczeństwa i marki modowe podejmują działania mające na celu przejście od konsumpcji zasobów nieodnawialnych i niezrównoważonych modeli biznesowych do gospodarki o bardziej zamkniętym obiegu, która prowadzi do zrównoważonych wzorców konsumpcji. Młodsi członkowie pokolenia Z stanowią aktywny i istotny segment konsumentów modowych o znaczącym udziale; Dlatego marketerzy muszą uzyskać wgląd w postrzeganie i postawy tych młodych klientów. Celem tego artykułu jest zbadanie postrzegania i nastawienia młodszych członków pokolenia Z do zrównoważonej odzieży w celu zidentyfikowania implikacji menedżerskich i dalszych badań naukowych. Badanie miało charakter jakościowy, wykorzystując wywiady częściowo ustrukturyzowane i towarzyszyły mu wywiady indywidualne ze 120 aktywnymi kupującymi modę w wieku 18-25 lat. W badaniu przeanalizowano postrzeganie i aspekty zrównoważonej mody z pozytywnym nastawieniem, a wyniki wskazują, że wartości związane ze zdrowiem i środowiskiem powinny być w centrum uwagi, aby były bardziej atrakcyjne dla młodych klientów. Bariery decyzyjne i pozytywne słowa kluczowe powinny być podstawą skutecznych strategii komunikacyjnych i przekazów marketingowych. Wyniki badania pokazują, że podczas podróży klienta młodzi klienci zbierają informacje głównie z opisów produktów sprzedawców e-commerce, etykiet produktów, systemów filtrów, recenzji partnerskich i zasobów komunikacyjnych w punkcie sprzedaży, które można znaleźć w punkcie sprzedaży. To badanie eksploracyjne stanowi pierwszy etap dalszych ilościowych badań naukowych

COMPARABLE VALUATION METHOD A NEW APPROACH. CASE STUDY: A ROMANIAN FLEXOGRAPHIC PRINTING FIRM

This study presents the valuation scheme of a flexographic printing industry firm. The industry, the technology used and most importantly the firm being young ones, it is not possible to use the classical comparable valuation methods. The new approach in this matter is to use as benchmark financial ratios not those related to the price of the firm (as P/E, P/S, P/BV, P/CF, P/CAPEX), but those related to the structure of the income statement, financial and operating leverage using 13 Romanian and 6 Hungarian reference firms data. Our main contribution to this line of research is to solve the problem of lack of reference data regarding the price, the benchmark companies not being listed on any stock exchange