Silent interests and all-pay auctions

If firms compete in all-pay auctions with complete information, silent shareholdings introduce asymmetric externalities into the all-pay auction framework. If the strongest firm owns a large share in the second strongest firm, this may make the strongest firm abstain from bidding. As a consequence, equilibrium profits of both firms may increase, but the prize may be allocated less efficiently. The reverse ownership structure is also likely to increase the profits of the firms involved in the ownership relationship but without these negative efficiency effects. -- Befinden sich Firmen im Wettkampf in All-Pay Auktionen unter vollständiger Information, so bringen stille Beteiligungen asymmetrische externe Effekte in den gesamten Auktionsrahmen. Hält die stärkste Firma einen großen Anteil an Aktien der zweitstärksten Firma, kann dies die stärkere Firma von weiteren Geboten abhalten. Als Folge vergrößern sich die Profite beider Firmen, sind jedoch weniger effizient verteilt. Das umgekehrte Eigentumsverhältnis hebt voraussichtlich die Gewinne der beteiligten Firmen an, jedoch ohne negative Effizienzauswirkungen.All-pay auctions,externalities,contests,silent minority shareholdings ¸ownership structure

Succession rules and leadership rents

Leaders compensate supporters not just for performing their duties but also in order to preempt an overthrow by the same supporters. We show how succession rules affect the power of leaders relative to supporters as well as the resources expended on possible succession struggles. We compare two regimes of leadership succession: the conclave regime and the divide-et-impera regime which differ with respect to the role of supporters of the previous leader once the new leader takes power. The leadership rent is higher and supporters receive a lower compensation in the divide-et-impera regime, as supporters have to fight harder for succession to avoid the grim outcome of loss. Leaders, then, would like to induce the divide-et-impera regime even when every supporter has veto power over his leadership. -- Könige und Diktatoren, aber auch die Vorstände von Unternehmen und Parteivorsitzende verdanken den Fortbestand ihrer Herrschaft der Unterstützung einer Gruppe von einflussreichen Helfern in Schlüsselpositionen. Diese können ihren Einfluss für, aber auch gegen den Fortbestand der bestehenden Herrschaft einsetzen und werden von den Herrschenden in der Regel für ihre Loyalität bezahlt. Wir untersuchen, welchen Einfluss bestimmte, in der Realität praktizierte Nachfolgeregelungen auf die Machtverteilung zwischen Herrschern und ihren Gefolgsleuten haben und wie diese Nachfolgeregeln die Verteilung der Vorteile und Renten aus Herrschaft beeinflussen. Wir vergleichen zwei unterschiedliche Regime der Nachfolgeregelungen: Das so genannte Konklave- Regime und das divide-et-impera-Regime. Die beiden unterscheiden sich darin, welche Rolle den Gefolgsleute des alten Herrschers im Zusammenhang mit der Neubesetzung des Amts des Herrschers und der Schlüsselpositionen der Unterstützer unter dem neuen Herrscher zukommt. Der Nutzen des Herrschers ist höher und Gefolgsleute erhalten im divide-et-impera-Regime einen geringeren Anteil an den Renten, die mit der Herrschaft einher gehen, da sie um die Nachfolge härter kämpfen, weil sie im Zuge des Herrschaftswechsels mehr zu verlieren haben. Daher sind Herrscher bestrebt, das divide-et- impera- Regime einzuführen.Political leadership,political support,political survival,successorship

Equilibrium and efficiency in the tug-of-war

We characterize the unique Markov perfect equilibrium of a tug-of-war without exogenous noise, in which players have the opportunity to engage in a sequence of battles in an attempt to win the war. Each battle is an all-pay auction in which the player expending the greater resources wins. In equilibrium, contest effort concentrates on at most two adjacent states of the game, the tipping states, which are determined by the contestants' relative strengths, their distances to final victory, and the discount factor. In these states battle outcomes are stochastic due to endogenous randomization. Both relative strength and closeness to victory increase the probability of winning the battle at hand. Patience reduces the role of distance in determining outcomes. Applications range from politics, economics and sports, to biology, where the equilibrium behavior finds empirical support: many species have developed mechanisms such as hierarchies or other organizational structures by which the allocation of prizes are governed by possibly repeated conflict. Our results contribute to an explanation why. Compared to a single stage conflict, such structures can reduce the overall resources that are dissipated among the group of players. -- Wir beschreiben das eindeutige Markoff-perfekte Gleichgewicht in einem mehrstufigen Konflikt ohne exogene Unsicherheit (noise), bei dem die Spieler versuchen, in einer Serie von aufeinander folgenden kleineren Gefechten einen Konflikt zu gewinnen. Jedes Gefecht ist eine all-pay auction, bei der derjenige Spieler gewinnt, der die meisten Ressourcen eingesetzt hat. Im Gleichgewicht konzentriert sich der Mitteleinsatz auf höchstens zwei benachbarte Zustände, die wir als spielentscheidende Zustände (tipping states) bezeichnen. Die Lage dieser Zustände hängt von der relativen Stärke der Spieler, der Zahl der verbleibenden Spielstufen bis zum Gesamtsieg und dem Diskontierungsfaktor ab. An diesen kritischen Zuständen ist der Konfliktausgang zufällig aufgrund der stochastischen Verteilung der im Gleichgewicht gewählten Mengen von Konfliktressourcen. Sowohl die relative Stärke als auch die Nähe zur finalen Konfliktstufe erhöhen die Wahrscheinlichkeit, das einzelne Gefecht zu gewinnen. Geringe Kosten des Wartens verringern den Einfluss der Entfernung zum Gesamtsieg auf den Ausgang der einzelnen Gefechte. Die Anwendungsgebiete sind zahlreich und reichen von der Politik über die Wirtschaft und den Sport bis zur Biologie. Dort findet das Gleichgewichtsergebnis empirisch Unterstützung: Viele Arten haben eigene Mechanismen entwickelt, z.B. Hierarchien oder andere Organisationsstrukturen, bei denen die Allokation der Siegerprämie in sich möglicherweise wiederholenden Konflikten erfolgt. Unsere Ergebnisse liefern hierzu eine Erklärung. Im Vergleich mit einem einstufigen Konflikt können solche Strukturen den Ressourceneinsatz der Spieler reduzieren.Winner-take-all,all-pay auction,tipping,multi-stage contest,dynamic game,pre-emption,conflict,dominance

Competition for FDI with vintage investment and agglomeration advantages

Countries compete for new FDI investment, whereas stocks of FDI generate agglomeration benefits and are potentially subject to extortionary taxation. We study the interaction between these aspects in a simple vintage capital framework with discrete time and an infinite horizon, focussing on Markov perfect equilibrium. We show that the equilibrium taxation destabilizes agglomeration advantages. The agglomeration advantage is valuable, but is exploited in the short run. The tax revenue in the equilibrium is substantial, and higher on "old" FDI than on "new" FDI, even though countries are not allowed to use discriminatory taxation. If countries can provide fiscal incentives for attracting new firms, this stabilizes existing agglomeration advantages, but may erode the fiscal revenue in the equilibrium

Strength of the EpE_{\text{p}}=1.842 MeV resonance in the 40^{40}Ca(p,γ\gamma)41^{41}Sc reaction revisited

The strength of the $E_{\rm p} = 1.842$ MeV resonance in the $^{40}$Ca(p,$\gamma$)$^{41}$Sc reaction is determined with two different methods: First, by an absolute strength measurement using calcium hydroxide targets, and second, relative to the well-determined strength of the resonance triplet at $E_\alpha$ = 4.5 MeV in the $^{40}$Ca($\alpha$,$\gamma$)$^{44}$Ti reaction. The present new value of $\omega\gamma=(0.192\pm0.017)$ eV is 37% (equivalent to $3.5\sigma$) higher than the evaluated literature value. In addition, the ratio of the strengths of the 1.842 MeV $^{40}$Ca(p,$\gamma$)$^{41}$Sc and 4.5 MeV $^{40}$Ca($\alpha$,$\gamma$)$^{44}$Ti resonances has been determined to be $0.0229\pm0.0018$. The newly corrected strength of the 1.842-MeV resonance can be used in the future as a normalization point for experiments with calcium targets.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev.

The new Felsenkeller 5 MV underground accelerator

The field of nuclear astrophysics is devoted to the study of the creation of the chemical elements. By nature, it is deeply intertwined with the physics of the Sun. The nuclear reactions of the proton-proton cycle of hydrogen burning, including the 3He({\alpha},{\gamma})7Be reaction, provide the necessary nuclear energy to prevent the gravitational collapse of the Sun and give rise to the by now well-studied pp, 7Be, and 8B solar neutrinos. The not yet measured flux of 13N, 15O, and 17F neutrinos from the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycle is affected in rate by the 14N(p,{\gamma})15O reaction and in emission profile by the 12C(p,{\gamma})13N reaction. The nucleosynthetic output of the subsequent phase in stellar evolution, helium burning, is controlled by the 12C({\alpha},{\gamma})16O reaction. In order to properly interpret the existing and upcoming solar neutrino data, precise nuclear physics information is needed. For nuclear reactions between light, stable nuclei, the best available technique are experiments with small ion accelerators in underground, low-background settings. The pioneering work in this regard has been done by the LUNA collaboration at Gran Sasso/Italy, using a 0.4 MV accelerator. The present contribution reports on a higher-energy, 5.0 MV, underground accelerator in the Felsenkeller underground site in Dresden/Germany. Results from {\gamma}-ray, neutron, and muon background measurements in the Felsenkeller underground site in Dresden, Germany, show that the background conditions are satisfactory for nuclear astrophysics purposes. The accelerator is in the commissioning phase and will provide intense, up to 50{\mu}A, beams of 1H+, 4He+ , and 12C+ ions, enabling research on astrophysically relevant nuclear reactions with unprecedented sensitivity.Comment: Submitted to the Proceedings of the 5th International Solar Neutrino Conference, Dresden/Germany, 11-14 June 2018, to appear on World Scientific -- updated version (Figure 2 and relevant discussion updated, co-author A. Domula added

The resonance triplet at E_alpha = 4.5 MeV in the 40Ca(alpha,gamma)44Ti reaction

The 40Ca(alpha,gamma)44Ti reaction is believed to be the main production channel for the radioactive nuclide 44Ti in core-collapse supernovae. Radiation from decaying 44Ti has been observed so far for two supernova remnants, and a precise knowledge of the 44Ti production rate may help improve supernova models. The 40Ca(alpha,gamma)44Ti astrophysical reaction rate is determined by a number of narrow resonances. Here, the resonance triplet at E_alpha = 4497, 4510, and 4523 keV is studied both by activation, using an underground laboratory for the gamma counting, and by in-beam gamma spectrometry. The target properties are determined by elastic recoil detection analysis and by nuclear reactions. The strengths of the three resonances are determined to omega gamma = (0.92+-0.20), (6.2+-0.5), and (1.32+-0.24) eV, respectively, a factor of two more precise than before. The strengths of this resonance triplet may be used in future works as a point of reference. In addition, the present new data directly affect the astrophysical reaction rate at relatively high temperatures, above 3.5 GK.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Phys. Rev.

Understanding the biases to sepsis surveillance and quality assurance caused by inaccurate coding in administrative health data

Purpose Timely and accurate data on the epidemiology of sepsis are essential to inform policy decisions and research priorities. We aimed to investigate the validity of inpatient administrative health data (IAHD) for surveillance and quality assurance of sepsis care. Methods We conducted a retrospective validation study in a disproportional stratified random sample of 10,334 inpatient cases of age ≥ 15 years treated in 2015–2017 in ten German hospitals. The accuracy of coding of sepsis and risk factors for mortality in IAHD was assessed compared to reference standard diagnoses obtained by a chart review. Hospital-level risk-adjusted mortality of sepsis as calculated from IAHD information was compared to mortality calculated from chart review information. Results ICD-coding of sepsis in IAHD showed high positive predictive value (76.9–85.7% depending on sepsis definition), but low sensitivity (26.8–38%), which led to an underestimation of sepsis incidence (1.4% vs. 3.3% for severe sepsis-1). Not naming sepsis in the chart was strongly associated with under-coding of sepsis. The frequency of correctly naming sepsis and ICD-coding of sepsis varied strongly between hospitals (range of sensitivity of naming: 29–71.7%, of ICD-diagnosis: 10.7–58.5%). Risk-adjusted mortality of sepsis per hospital calculated from coding in IAHD showed no substantial correlation to reference standard risk-adjusted mortality (r = 0.09). Conclusion Due to the under-coding of sepsis in IAHD, previous epidemiological studies underestimated the burden of sepsis in Germany. There is a large variability between hospitals in accuracy of diagnosing and coding of sepsis. Therefore, IAHD alone is not suited to assess quality of sepsis care

Molecular diagnosis of Burkitt\u27s lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: The distinction between Burkitt\u27s lymphoma and diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma is crucial because these two types of lymphoma require different treatments. We examined whether gene-expression profiling could reliably distinguish Burkitt\u27s lymphoma from diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma. METHODS: Tumor-biopsy specimens from 303 patients with aggressive lymphomas were profiled for gene expression and were also classified according to morphology, immunohistochemistry, and detection of the t(8;14) c-myc translocation. RESULTS: A classifier based on gene expression correctly identified all 25 pathologically verified cases of classic Burkitt\u27s lymphoma. Burkitt\u27s lymphoma was readily distinguished from diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma by the high level of expression of c-myc target genes, the expression of a subgroup of germinal-center B-cell genes, and the low level of expression of major-histocompatibility-complex class I genes and nuclear factor-kappaB target genes. Eight specimens with a pathological diagnosis of diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma had the typical gene-expression profile of Burkitt\u27s lymphoma, suggesting they represent cases of Burkitt\u27s lymphoma that are difficult to diagnose by current methods. Among 28 of the patients with a molecular diagnosis of Burkitt\u27s lymphoma, the overall survival was superior among those who had received intensive chemotherapy regimens instead of lower-dose regimens. CONCLUSIONS: Gene-expression profiling is an accurate, quantitative method for distinguishing Burkitt\u27s lymphoma from diffuse large-B-cell lymphoma