Addressing carbon inequality: public perceptions and policy attitudes.

The problems of climate change and economic inequality are connected in multiple ways. Carbon inequality means that some individuals generate multiple times larger annual carbon emissions than others. Income and wealth disparities are main drivers of carbon inequality. Little is known how citizens perceive carbon inequality and related aspects, nor whether such perceptions are consequential for attitudes to (progressive) climate mitigation policies. Here we study such perceptions and policy attitudes through an online survey for Spain. Using quota sampling, we collected data from a sample of 3009 citizens from all regions of the country. Public perceptions of carbon inequality are measured in a qualitative and numerical way. When asked for a qualitative judgment, many people state that they perceive moderate to large differences in carbon footprints. When asked for a numerical judgment, the picture becomes more complex: comparing public perceptions with academic research data, it appears that many people actually tend to over- rather than underestimate the magnitude of footprint differences. Nevertheless, most people are aware that footprint differences are related to income differences. We also examine respondents’ attitudes to addressing carbon inequality in general in the context of climate policy, as well as to specific policy instruments with an explicit inequality dimension (wealth taxation, higher top income tax rate, frequent flyer tax, private jet ban), as well as several other instruments whose link to inequality is less obvious (e.g. carbon-border tariff). We find that a qualitatively stronger perception of the existence of carbon inequality is consistently and significantly associated with more support for all eight policy instruments. Left-wing political orientation, worry about climate change, and to a lesser extent household income are further significant predictors of favorable attitudes to several policies.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Social reinforcement with weighted interactions

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552The speed and extent of diffusion of behaviors in social networks depends on network structure and individual preferences. The contribution of the present study is twofold. First, we introduce weighted interactions between potential adopters that depend on the similarity in their preferences and moderate the strength of social reinforcement. The reason for the extension is the existence of a confirmation bias in the way agents treat information by prioritizing evidence conforming to their opinion. As a result, individuals become less likely to be influenced by peers with relatively different preferences, reducing the overall diffusion rate under clustered networks. Second, we enrich our analysis by also considering a scale free network topology with a high degree asymmetry, motivated by its pervasiveness in online social networks. This network performs consistently well in terms of diffusion for different parameter combinations and clearly outperforms clustered networks under weighted interactions. Our results show that more realistic assumptions regarding agents' interactions shift the focus from clustering to degree distribution in the study of network structures allowing for fast and widespread behavior adoption

The social multiplier of environmental policy : application to carbon taxation

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MWe analyze the effectiveness of environmental policy when consumers are subject to social influence. To this end, we build a model of consumption decisions driven by socially- embedded preferences formed under the influence of peers in a social network. This setting gives rise to a social multiplier of environmental policy. In an application to climate change, we derive Pigouvian and target-achieving carbon taxes under socially-embedded preferences. Under realistic assumptions the social multiplier is equal to 1.30, allowing to reduce the effective tax by 38%. We show that the multiplier depends on four factors: strength of social influence, initial taste distribution, network topology and income distribution. The approach provides a basis for rigorously analyzing a transition to low-carbon lifestyles and identifying complementary information and network policies to maximize the effectiveness of carbon taxation

Co-dynamics of climate policy stringency and public support

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MAcord transformatiu CRUE-CSICPublic support for stringent climate policies is currently weak. We develop a model to study the dynamics of public support for climate policies. It comprises three interconnected modules: one calculates policy impacts; a second translates these into policy support mediated by social influence; and a third represents the regulator adapting policy stringency depending on public support. The model combines general-equilibrium and agent-based elements and is empirically grounded in a household survey, which allows quantifying policy support as a function of effectiveness, personal wellbeing and distributional effects. We apply our approach to compare two policy instruments, namely carbon taxation and performance standards, and identify intertemporal trajectories that meet the climate target and count on sufficient public support. Our results highlight the importance of social influence, opinion stability and income inequality for public support of climate policies. Our model predicts that carbon taxation consistently generates more public support than standards. Finally, we show that under moderate social influence and income inequality, an increasing carbon tax trajectory combined with progressive revenue redistribution receives the highest average public support over time

Agent-based modeling to integrate elements from different disciplines for ambitious climate policy

Ambitious climate mitigation policies face social and political resistance. One reason is that existing policies insufficiently capture the diversity of relevant insights from the social sciences about potential policy outcomes. We argue that agent-based models can serve as a powerful tool for integration of elements from different disciplines. Having such a common platform will enable a more complete assessment of climate policies, in terms of criteria like effectiveness, equity and public support. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance

A review of agent-based modelling of climate-energy policy

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MAltres ajuts: Russian Science Foundation. Grant Number: 19-18-00262Agent-based models (ABMs) have recently seen much application to the field of climate mitigation policies. They offer a more realistic description of micro behaviour than traditional climate policy models by allowing for agent heterogeneity, bounded rationality and non-market interactions over social networks. This enables the analysis of a broader spectrum of policies. Here, we review 61 ABM studies addressing climate-energy policy aimed at emissions reduction, product and technology diffusion, and energy conservation. This covers a broad set of instruments of climate policy, ranging from carbon taxation and emissions trading through adoption subsidies to information provision tools such as smart meters and eco-labels. Our treatment pays specific attention to behavioural assumptions and the structure of social networks. We offer suggestions for future research with ABMs to answer neglected policy question

Carbon pricing meets social interactions : Implications for climate policy design

Mitigar el canvi climàtic és un dels majors reptes del nostre temps. Les nostres economies haurien d'assolir emissions netes a mitjans de segle per evitar danys catastròfics. Després de l'Acord de París del 2015, la Unió Europea i molts governs nacionals s'han compromès a assolir la neutralitat del carboni el 2050. No obstant això, els compromisos actuals no arriben a l'objectiu de mitigació, cosa que sustenta la urgència d'aplicar polítiques efectives per reduir les emissions de gasos d'efecte hivernacle. La política climàtica no passa en un buit social i polític. Una de les mancances dels models convencionals en economia climàtica és que ignoren l'entorn social en què interactuen els agents. Argumento en aquesta tesi que una bona comprensió del context social que envolta les polítiques climàtiques és essencial per dissenyar instruments eficients i acceptables. Faig servir models basats en agents (ABM) per integrar aspectes específics de les interaccions socials en un marc climàtic-econòmic. Els ABM són models flexibles que permeten apartar-se dels supòsits tradicionals sobre agents representatius i socialment aïllats, concretament descrivint una població d'agents heterogenis amb un ampli ventall de comportaments i interaccions possibles. El segon capítol, titulat "Reforç social amb interaccions ponderades", estudia la difusió de comportaments baixos en carboni a les xarxes socials. Introdueix diverses funcions noves, com el biaix de confirmació, que és la tendència a donar més pes a les opinions que confirmen les pròpies creences i una topologia de xarxa generalitzada a les xarxes socials en línia. Els resultats mostren que, sota supòsits realistes sobre les interaccions dels agents, la distribució del grau de xarxa és el factor clau per a una adopció ràpida i generalitzada del comportament baix en carboni. El tercer capítol, titulat "El multiplicador social de la política ambiental: aplicació a la imposició del carboni", analitza l'eficàcia de la imposició del carboni quan els consumidors estan sotmesos a influència social. Introdueix preferències integrades socialment formades sota la influència dels companys i obté un anomenat multiplicador social de la política mediambiental. L'enfocament proporciona una base per analitzar rigorosament una transició a estils de vida baixos en carboni i identificar informació complementària i polítiques de xarxa per complementar i reforçar l'eficàcia de la imposició del carboni. El quart capítol, titulat "Trajectòria òptima de la imposició del carboni sota preferències endògenes", és la continuació lògica de l'anterior. Deriva una dinàmica òptima d'un impost sobre el carboni quan les preferències són endògenes, és a dir, quan l'impost modifica la formació de preferències dels agents. En particular, l'estudi se centra en les condicions en què disminueix l'impost òptim. El cinquè capítol, titulat "Dinàmiques de rigor de les polítiques climàtiques i suport públic", estudia el disseny de polítiques climàtiques intertemporals que siguin efectives per assolir els objectius climàtics i que rebin el suport de la majoria dels votants. Per a això, combina un model d'equilibri general per a l'avaluació d'impacte de la política climàtica amb un model basat en agents que implica una xarxa social per avaluar les dinàmiques de l'opinió pública i estudia la viabilitat política de diverses polítiques climàtiques. Els resultats mostren que un impost caracteritzat per una taxa inicialment baixa que augmenta amb el temps, combinat amb una redistribució progressiva dels ingressos, genera un suport públic crític.Mitigar el cambio climático es uno de los mayores desafíos de nuestro tiempo. Nuestras economías deberían alcanzar emisiones netas cero a mediados de siglo para evitar daños catastróficos. Tras el Acuerdo de París de 2015, la Unión Europea y muchos gobiernos nacionales se han comprometido a alcanzar la neutralidad de carbono para el año 2050. Sin embargo, los compromisos actuales no alcanzan el objetivo de mitigación. Esto apuntala la urgencia de implementar políticas efectivas para disminuir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. La política climática no ocurre en un vacío social y político. Una de las deficiencias de los modelos convencionales en economía climática es que ignoran el entorno social en el que interactúan los agentes. Sostengo en esta tesis que una buena comprensión del contexto social que rodea a las políticas climáticas es esencial para diseñar instrumentos eficientes y aceptables. Hago uso de modelos basados en agentes (ABM) para integrar aspectos específicos de las interacciones sociales en un marco económico-climático. Los ABM son modelos flexibles que permiten apartarse de los supuestos tradicionales sobre agentes representativos y socialmente aislados, es decir, al describir una población de agentes heterogéneos con una amplia gama de posibles comportamientos e interacciones. El segundo capítulo, titulado "Refuerzo social con interacciones ponderadas", estudia la difusión de conductas bajas en carbono en las redes sociales. Introduce varias características nuevas, como el sesgo de confirmación, que es la tendencia a dar más peso a las opiniones que confirman las creencias previas de uno, y una topología de red omnipresente en las redes sociales en línea. Los resultados muestran que bajo supuestos realistas con respecto a las interacciones de los agentes, la distribución del grado de la red es el factor clave para la adopción rápida y generalizada de un comportamiento bajo en carbono. El tercer capítulo, titulado "El multiplicador social de la política ambiental: aplicación a los impuestos al carbono", analiza la efectividad de los impuestos al carbono cuando los consumidores están sujetos a la influencia social. Introduce preferencias socialmente arraigadas formadas bajo la influencia de pares y deriva un llamado multiplicador social de la política ambiental. El enfoque proporciona una base para analizar rigurosamente una transición hacia estilos de vida con bajas emisiones de carbono e identificar información complementaria y políticas de redes para complementar y reforzar la eficacia de los impuestos al carbono. El cuarto capítulo, titulado "Trayectoria óptima de la fiscalidad del carbono bajo preferencias endógenas", es la continuación lógica del anterior. Deriva la dinámica óptima de un impuesto al carbono cuando las preferencias son endógenas, es decir, cuando el impuesto modifica la formación de preferencias de los agentes. En particular, el estudio se centra en las condiciones en las que el impuesto óptimo está disminuyendo. El quinto capítulo, titulado "Co-dinámica de la rigurosidad de la política climática y el apoyo público", estudia el diseño de la política climática intertemporal que es eficaz para cumplir los objetivos climáticos y recibe el apoyo de la mayoría de los votantes. Para ello, combina un modelo de equilibrio general para la evaluación del impacto de la política climática con un modelo basado en agentes que involucra una red social para evaluar la dinámica de la opinión pública y estudiar la viabilidad política de varias políticas climáticas. Los resultados muestran que un impuesto caracterizado por una tasa inicialmente baja que aumenta con el tiempo, combinada con una redistribución progresiva de los ingresos, genera un apoyo público crítico.Mitigating climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Our economies should attain net zero emissions by the middle of the century to avoid catastrophic damages. Following the Paris Agreement in 2015, the European Union and many national governments have pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. However, current commitments fall short of the mitigation objective.This underpins the urgency of implementing effective policies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Climate policy does not happen in a societal and political vacuum. One of the shortcomings of conventional models in climate economics is that they ignore the social environment in which agents interact. I argue in this thesis that a good understanding of the social context surrounding climate policies is essential for designing efficient and acceptable instruments. I make use of agent-based models (ABMs) to integrate specific aspects of social interactions into a climate-economic framework. ABMs are flexible models that allow to depart from traditional assumptions about representative and socially isolated agents, namely by describing a population of heterogeneous agents with a wide range of possible behaviours and interactions. The second chapter, entitled "Social reinforcement with weighted interactions", studies the diffusion of low-carbon behaviors in social networks. It introduces several new features, such as confirmation bias, which is the tendency to put more weight on opinions that confirm one's prior beliefs, and a network topology pervasive in online social networks. The results show that under realistic assumptions regarding agents' interactions, network degree distribution is the key factor for fast and widespread low-carbon behavior adoption. The third chapter, entitled "The Social Multiplier of Environmental Policy: Application to Carbon Taxation", analyzes the effectiveness of carbon taxation when consumers are subject to social influence. It introduces socially-embedded preferences formed under the influence of peers and derives a so-called social multiplier of environmental policy. The approach provides a basis for rigorously analyzing a transition to low-carbon lifestyles and identifying complementary information and network policies to complement and reinforce the effectiveness of carbon taxation. The fourth chapter, entitled "Optimal trajectory of carbon taxation under endogenous preferences", is the logical continuation of the previous one. It derives optimal dynamics of a carbon tax when preferences are endogenous, i.e. when the tax modifies the formation of preferences of agents. In particular, the study focuses on the conditions under which the optimal tax is decreasing. The fifth chapter, entitled "Co-dynamics of climate policy stringency and public support", studies the design of intertemporal climate policy that is effective in meeting climate targets as well as receives support from a majority of voters. To this end, it combines a general equilibrium model for impact assessment of climate policy with an agent-based model involving a social network for assessing public opinion dynamics, and study the political feasibility of several climate policies. The results show that a tax characterized by an initially low rate which increases over time, combined with progressive revenue redistribution, generates critical public support

Social reinforcement with weighted interactions

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552The speed and extent of diffusion of behaviors in social networks depends on network structure and individual preferences. The contribution of the present study is twofold. First, we introduce weighted interactions between potential adopters that depend on the similarity in their preferences and moderate the strength of social reinforcement. The reason for the extension is the existence of a confirmation bias in the way agents treat information by prioritizing evidence conforming to their opinion. As a result, individuals become less likely to be influenced by peers with relatively different preferences, reducing the overall diffusion rate under clustered networks. Second, we enrich our analysis by also considering a scale free network topology with a high degree asymmetry, motivated by its pervasiveness in online social networks. This network performs consistently well in terms of diffusion for different parameter combinations and clearly outperforms clustered networks under weighted interactions. Our results show that more realistic assumptions regarding agents' interactions shift the focus from clustering to degree distribution in the study of network structures allowing for fast and widespread behavior adoption

How Resilient is Public Support for Carbon Pricing? Longitudinal Evidence from Germany

The success of climate policies depends crucially on the dynamics of public support. Using unique longitudinal data from three surveys conducted between 2019 and 2022, we study the variations of public support for carbon pricing in Germany. The period includes two relevant events: the introduction and ramping up of carbon pricing in Germany and the exogenous increase in energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Using panel methods, we show that support is very persistent over time and might have increased slightly more recently. However, people who experience high energy costs display a lower support. Regarding revenue use, we detect that social cushioning has become more popular after the introduction of carbon pricing. Our findings suggest that it is crucial to gather enough support before implementing climate policies

The virtues of virtual conferences

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MAltres ajuts: Acord transformatiu CRUE-CSICIn this comment, we share our experiences from organizing the ICTA2020 Virtual Conference on Low-Carbon Lifestyles and argue that virtual events have potential to become the new norm among academics. We present an overview of tools that can be used and support our arguments with results from a feedback survey that was filled out by the participants of our conference. Main challenges for virtual conferences are the facilitation of informal spaces for social interaction and the prevention of 'screen fatigue'. Advantages are that they can increase societal outreach, improve the academic quality of discussions, create new opportunities for networking, and provide an inclusive environment