The Image of Woman as Motherhood in Rabindranath Tagore’s Gora

This article evaluates the image of a traditional Indian motherhood in Gora written by Rabindranath Tagore. In Gora, Tagore portrays a divine mother and a goddess as well as the conception of the central character in relation to development of social, political, religious, and economical decisions of male. Yet, he insists that woman has the important roles in man’s life and she should make the best identity for her own life in the family or in the larger society. However, This essay can be read as the ideology of a feminine ideal that compares nature of India motherland with mother of everyone in all aspects of life but it examines distinctions between Tagore and Wollstonecraft concerning women’s role as mothers within the family because as a feminist she argues that the rights of women are demanded within the republic. In order to explore Rabindranath Tagore’s treatment of motherhood, Virginia Woolf’s perspective will be analyzed in respect to her feministic approach. So, disregarding how Tagore demonstrates the idea of words, Woolf realizes ideal of motherhood was essential in women’s life and develops a female atmosphere in which women portray their status in the real world and fight against their patriarchal mother

The effects of high-intensity interval training on the expression of interleukin-10 and STAT3 genes in the intestinal tissue of rats affected by hepatic steatosis

Hepatic steatosis is increasingly being recognized as an important pathological feature of disease that commonly reported in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. This study aimed to investigate the effects of High-Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) on the expression of interleukin-10 and Signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) genes in intestinal tissue in an animal model of fatty liver. In this experimental study, 24 rats (weighing 200-250 gr) were selected and randomly divided into 3 groups including healthy control, fatty liver, and fatty liver + HIIT, groups. In order to induce fatty liver, oral tetracycline 140 mg/kg/day in 2 mL of water in form of a solution was given to the rats by gavage for 7 days. HIIT exercise program performed on treadmill five sessions per week for 5 weeks. Data were analyzed by one-way ANOVA and Tukey post hoc tests. P<0.05 was considered significant. The results showed that IL10 gene expression in HIIT groups was significantly lower than in the fatty liver group (p<0.0001). Also, the expression of the STAT3 gene in intestinal tissue was significantly upper in HIIT groups than that in the fatty liver group (p<0.0001). Regulation of IL-10 and STAT3 gene expression in fatty liver-induced adipose tissue can be modulated by HIIT exercise. Therefore, intense interval training can be considered as a non-pharmacological strategy in the treatment of fatty liver

Effect of Irrigation Management on Water Productivity Indicators of Alfalfa

Introduction Over the last years, long-term average rainfall has experienced a meaningful decrease (from 250 to 206 mm per year) leading to continuous drought in Iran. In addition, population growth and increasing demand for food put more pressure on the limited available water resources. Thus, the quantitative and qualitative improvement of agricultural products become a necessity. There is 640,000 hectares of alfalfa cultivated land, standing for 5.4% of the total cultivated area. One of the most basic obstacles in these farms is the unsuitable model of water consumption management. Previous studies were conducted with the aim of evaluating the mutual effects of different treatments in controlled plots. Nonetheless, there is a need for large-scale investigations to monitor and improve water productivity in agricultural systems. In this research, the focus was on irrigation management and optimizing irrigation timing as a potential solution to enhance water productivity, considering the fixed irrigation cycles and traditional use of available water resources. The study began by assessing the current water productivity in 11 alfalfa farms located across four regions in Zanjan province, ensuring a suitable spatial distribution. Subsequently, the impact of irrigation management, particularly the adjustment of irrigation timing, was evaluated to determine its effectiveness in improving water productivity in these farms. Materials and Methods Eleven alfalfa farms, covering a total area of 28 hectares, were initially selected in the agricultural lands of Zanjan province. The majority of these farms were equipped with sprinkler irrigation systems. From these 11 farms, two specific farms were chosen to implement the proposed methods aimed at improving water productivity. These selected farms served as experimental sites where the irrigation management techniques were applied and evaluated. Improvement solutions were mainly focused on irrigation management. Each farm was divided into two parts; one part with real conditions (farmers' management) and the second one with controlled conditions. In the controlled treatments, irrigation management was implemented through optimization of irrigation time. A nutritional program was also prepared according to the soil quality of the fields and applied in the controlled treatments. In each farm, basic information such as area, physical and chemical properties of soil and water quality were determined. Irrigation information (such as inflow discharge and irrigation schedule) was measured and determined at least three times during the cropping season. Soil moisture were measured before and after irrigation in order to calculate the water application efficiency. The amount of harvested product and production costs were obtained at the end of the cropping season through measurements and interviews with farmers. In this research, the indicators including the volume of irrigation water, the water use efficiency, and the physical and economic efficiency of water have been calculated to analyze the water productivity. Results and Discussion The volume of irrigation water in alfalfa farms was measured as 14250 m3/ha on average (with the lowest and highest consumption values of 9849 and 20576 m3/ha, respectively). The average of irrigation water in farms with surface irrigation systems equals to 17,806 and in farms equipped with sprinkle irrigation systems is about 13,460 m3/ha. While the net water requirement of alfalfa in study area was 7160 to 7290 m3/ha. The minimum and maximum values of water application efficiency were 38.3 and 82%, respectively, with average of 64%. The average of application efficiency in surface and sprinkle irrigation systems were obtained 50 and 67%, respectively. The measured alfalfa yield ranged from a minimum of 6.5 ton/ha to a maximum of 14.1 ton/ha, with an average yield of 10.4 ton/ha. After implementing the revised irrigation program in the controlled plots, the harvested water decreased by an average of 49.5%. It was observed that the irrigation schedule in most farms followed a traditional and estimated pattern, with the depth of irrigation water in the middle of the growing season exceeding the net irrigation requirement. The water use efficiency (WUE) values varied between 0.42 and 1.28 kg/m3, with a minimum value of 0.42 kg/m3 and a maximum value of 1.28 kg/m3. The average WUE was calculated as 0.79 kg/m3. Analyzing the correlation between water consumption and the water use efficiency index revealed a decreasing trend. As the volume of irrigation water increased, the water use efficiency index experienced a decline. Specifically, an increase of 1000 m3 in irrigation water resulted in a decrease of 0.04 kg/m3 in the water use efficiency index. The implementation of the corrected irrigation program and appropriate to the water demand led to an increase of the mentioned index by 72%. Conclusion The lack of proper irrigation programs that consider climatic conditions and the actual needs of the alfalfa plant was identified as a key factor contributing to high water consumption in the farms. Additionally, the inefficient selection and design of the irrigation system led to lower irrigation efficiency than expected. Despite the majority of farms being equipped with sprinkle irrigation systems, the harvested water did not decrease significantly due to inadequate water management practices. These factors ultimately resulted in a decline in both physical and economic productivity indicators in the alfalfa farms. However, the results of the study highlighted that implementing corrected irrigation management, particularly through modifications to the irrigation timing, can lead to a significant decrease in volume of irrigation water and an improvement in both physical and economic productivity

The Mediating Role of Spiritual Health in Adherence to Treatment in Patients with Cancer

Background: Adherence to the treatment regimen is among the behaviors, which predict the successful control of the disease and decrease its intensity and negative consequences, which is influenced by several factors. The patient’s beliefs and attitudes toward the disease are effective factors in disease management and adherence to treatment, and spiritual health is one of these influential variables. Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the mediating role of spiritual health in adherence to treatment in patients with cancer. Methods: In this descriptive correlational study, the participants were 234 Iranian patients with cancer, who were selected through convenience sampling, admitted to the oncology wards of 9 selected teaching hospitals in the northern, southern, eastern, and western provinces of the country, as well as the capital in 2021. The research instruments included the Demographic and Clinical Information Questionnaire, Spiritual Well-Being Scale, and Morisky Medication Adherence Scale-8. The path analysis was done to determine the factors related to the degree of adherence to treatment, taking into account the mediating role of spiritual health. Results: The mean age of the participants in the study was 47.27 ± 15.36. The mean scores for spiritual health and adherence to treatment were 76.70 ± 13.75 and 6.47 ± 2.1, respectively. A positive and significant relationship was found between spiritual health and adherence to treatment (P-value < 0.05). The variables of marital status, the time of diagnosis, and being a religious person had a direct effect on spiritual health, and the time of diagnosis indirectly affected treatment adherence. Conclusions: According to the results, the level of spiritual health and adherence to the treatment in patients with cancer was moderate. In addition, the variable of diagnostic time affected adherence to treatment indirectly. Besides, in examining the factors affecting spiritual health, the findings indicated the effect of the variables “being religious”, “marital status”, and “the time of diagnosis”. In addition to strengthening spiritual health, it is necessary to highlight the need to follow therapeutic diets in these patients. Therefore, it is suggested to consider a program to meet the patients with cancer spiritual needs along with the physical care program.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Radiobiological effects of wound fluid on breast cancer cell lines and human-derived tumor spheroids in 2D and microfluidic culture

Intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT) could abrogate cancer recurrences, but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. To clarify the effects of IORT-induced wound fluid on tumor progression, we treated breast cancer cell lines and human-derived tumor spheroids in 2D and microfluidic cell culture systems, respectively. The viability, migration, and invasion of the cells under treatment of IORT-induced wound fluid (WF-RT) and the cells under surgery-induced wound fluid (WF) were compared. Our findings showed that cell viability was increased in spheroids under both WF treatments, whereas viability of the cell lines depended on the type of cells and incubation times. Both WFs significantly increased sub-G1 and arrested the cells in G0/G1 phases associated with increased P16 and P21 expression levels. The expression level of Caspase 3 in both cell culture systems and for both WF-treated groups was significantly increased. Furthermore, our results revealed that although the migration was increased in both systems of WF-treated cells compared to cell culture media-treated cells, E-cadherin expression was significantly increased only in the WF-RT group. In conclusion, WF-RT could not effectively inhibit tumor progression in an ex vivo tumor-on-chip model. Moreover, our data suggest that a microfluidic system could be a suitable 3D system to mimic in vivo tumor conditions than 2D cell culture

The predictors of spiritual dryness among Iranian cancer patients during the COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundSpiritual struggles affect the wellbeing of religious people. Among them are strugglers with God which is perceived as non-responsive and distant. These perceptions were so far analyzed predominantly in Western societies with a Christian background, but not in Muslims from Iran. The aim of this study was to determine the predictors of spiritual dryness among cancer patients in Iran during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsCross-sectional study with standardized questionnaires (i.e., Spiritual Dryness Scale, WHO-5, BMLSS-10, Awe/Gratitude Scale) among 490 cancer patients (mean age 49.50 ± 14.92 years) referring to the selected educational hospitals in Tehran (the capital of Iran), who were selected through convenience sampling and based on the inclusion criteria, enrolled between December 2020–May 2021. Data analysis was done using SPSS software version 26 and the statistical methods including calculating the mean and the standard deviation, correlation coefficients, as well as regression analysis.ResultsThe overall experience of spiritual dryness was perceived regularly in 10.2% of Iranian cancer patients, sometimes in 22.9%, rarely in 22.9%, and never in 43.3%. The mean ± SD was 25.66 ± 5.04, and the scores ranged from 10 to 55. A higher score means greater spiritual dryness. The strongest predictors of spiritual dryness were praying activities Furthermore, the perception of burden due to the pandemic was positively correlated with spiritual dryness. Moreover, each 1 unit increase in its score changed the spiritual dryness score by 0.2 units. The regression of spirituality-related indicators, demographic-clinical variables, and health-related behaviors accounted for 21, 6, and 4% of the total SDS variance, respectively. These findings show that with an increase in praying, performing daily prayers, and the indicators related to spirituality, spiritual dryness will decrease. Most patients were able to cope with these phases often or even regularly, while 31.1% were never or rarely only able to cope.ConclusionThe results of this study showed that in times of crisis, cancer patients’ faith and confidence in God could be challenged. It is not the disease itself which seems to be associated with this form of crisis, but their religious practices. Therefore, it is necessary to support these patients during their struggle, especially as spirituality is one of the best approaches to cope with the disease

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030