Diagnostic approach for monitoring hydroclimatic conditions related to emergence of West Nile virus in West Virginia

West Nile virus (WNV), mosquito-borne and water-based disease, is increasingly a global threat to public health. Since its appearance in the northeastern United States in 1999, WNV has since been reported in several states in the continental United States. The objective of this study is to highlight role of hydroclimatic processes estimated through satellite sensors in capturing conditions for emergence of the vectors in historically disease free regions. We tested the hypothesis that an increase in surface temperature, in combination with intensification of vegetation, and enhanced precipitation, lead to conditions favorable for vector (mosquito) growth. Analysis of land surface temperature (LST) pattern shows that temperature values \u3e16°C, with heavy precipitation, may lead to abundance of the mosquito population. This hypothesis was tested in West Virginia where a sudden epidemic of WNV infection was reported in 2012. Our results emphasize the value of hydroclimatic processes estimated by satellite remote sensing, as well as continued environmental surveillance of mosquitoes, because when a vector-borne infection like WNV is discovered in contiguous regions, the risk of spread of WNV mosquitoes increase at points where appropriate hydroclimatic processes intersect with the vector niche

Quantification of Rotavirus Diarrheal Risk Due to Hydroclimatic Extremes Over South Asia: Prospects of Satellite‐Based Observations in Detecting Outbreaks

Rotavirus is the most common cause of diarrheal disease among children under 5. Especially in South Asia, rotavirus remains the leading cause of mortality in children due to diarrhea. As climatic extremes and safe water availability significantly influence diarrheal disease impacts in human populations, hydroclimatic information can be a potential tool for disease preparedness. In this study, we conducted a multivariate temporal and spatial assessment of 34 climate indices calculated from ground and satellite Earth observations to examine the role of temperature and rainfall extremes on the seasonality of rotavirus transmission in Bangladesh. We extracted rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Measurement and temperature data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensors to validate the analyses and explore the potential of a satellite‐based seasonal forecasting model. Our analyses found that the number of rainy days and nighttime temperature range from 16°C to 21°C are particularly influential on the winter transmission cycle of rotavirus. The lower number of wet days with suitable cold temperatures for an extended time accelerates the onset and intensity of the outbreaks. Temporal analysis over Dhaka also suggested that water logging during monsoon precipitation influences rotavirus outbreaks during a summer transmission cycle. The proposed model shows lag components, which allowed us to forecast the disease outbreaks 1 to 2 months in advance. The satellite data‐driven forecasts also effectively captured the increased vulnerability of dry‐cold regions of the country, compared to the wet‐warm regions

Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks

The Effect of the 2015 Earthquake on the Bacterial Community Compositions in Water in Nepal

We conducted a study to examine the effect of seasonal variations and the disruptive effects of the 2015 Nepal earthquake on microbial communities associated with drinking water sources. We first characterized the microbial communities of water samples in two Nepali regions (Kathmandu and Jhapa) to understand the stability of microbial communities in water samples collected in 2014. We analyzed additional water samples from the same sources collected from May to August 2015, allowing the comparison of samples from dry-to-dry season and from dry-to-monsoon seasons. Emphasis was placed on microbes responsible for maintaining the geobiochemical characteristics of water (e.g., ammonia-oxidizing and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria and archaea and sulfate-reducing bacteria) and opportunistic pathogens often found in water (Acinetobacter). When examining samples from Jhapa, we identified that most geobiochemical microbe populations remained similar. When examining samples from Kathmandu, the abundance of microbial genera responsible for maintaining the geobiochemical characteristics of water increased immediately after the earthquake and decreased 8 months later (December 2015). In addition, microbial source tracking was used to monitor human fecal contamination and revealed deteriorated water quality in some specific sampling sites in Kathmandu post-earthquake. This study highlights a disruption of the environmental microbiome after an earthquake and the restoration of these microbial communities as a function of time and sanitation practices

Assessment of Pathogens in Flood Waters in Coastal Rural Regions: Case study after Hurricane Michael and Florence

The severity of hurricanes, and thus the associated impacts, is changing over time. One of the understudied threats from damage caused by hurricanes is the potential for cross-contamination of water bodies with pathogens in coastal agricultural regions. Using microbiological data collected after hurricanes Florence and Michael, this study shows a dichotomy in the presence of pathogens in coastal North Carolina and Florida. Salmonella typhimurium was abundant in water samples collected in the regions dominated by swine farms. A drastic decrease in Enterococcus spp. in Carolinas is indicative of pathogen removal with flooding waters. Except for the abundance presence of Salmonella typhimurium, no significant changes in pathogens were observed after Hurricane Michael in the Florida panhandle. We argue that a comprehensive assessment of pathogens must be included in decision-making activities in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes to build resilience against risks of pathogenic exposure in rural agricultural and human populations in vulnerable locations

Population Vulnerability to Biannual Cholera Outbreaks and Associated Macro-Scale Drivers in the Bengal Delta

The highly populated floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of endemic and epidemic cholera outbreaks, both coastal and inland. Previous studies have not addressed the spatio-temporal dynamics of population vulnerability related to the influence of underlying large-scale processes. We analyzed spatial and temporal variability of cholera incidence across six surveillance sites in the Bengal Delta and their association with regional hydroclimatic and environmental drivers. More specifically, we use salinity and flood inundation modeling across the vulnerable districts of Bangladesh to test earlier proposed hypotheses on the role of these environmental variables. Our results show strong influence of seasonal and interannual variability in estuarine salinity on spring outbreaks and inland flooding on fall outbreaks. A large segment of the population in the Bengal Delta floodplains remain vulnerable to these biannual cholera transmission mechanisms that provide ecologic and environmental conditions for outbreaks over large geographic regions

Thank You to Our 2020 Peer Reviewers

Peer review is at the heart of the scientific endeavor, ensuring that high‐quality discoveries are communicated in effective and impactful ways. As a voluntary and mostly anonymous effort, peer review is often poorly recognized. But it is so valuable to journal Editors, and we are often so impressed by the incredibly detailed, constructive, and informative reviews that we get back from reviewers. In 2019, GeoHealth benefited from more than 94 reviews provided by 73 of our peers for papers submitted to the journal. Thank you all for being such an important part of the scientific process, advancing the communication of discoveries at the intersections of the environmental and health sciences to improve society

Thank You to Our 2018 Peer Reviewers

Public trust in science, effective science communication, and rapid and constructive response to authors about their submissions are of paramount importance to the scientific enterprise and indeed to society itself. This is really at the heart of peer review—providing thoughtful insights into both the scientific quality and importance of work, and also how it is communicated to other scientists and increasingly to a broader audience. Very few opportunities exist to acknowledge the mostly anonymous process of peer review, especially given the huge increase in review requests and the relatively mechanical nature of online reviewing platforms. We continue to be humbled by the time, effort, and careful insights that our colleagues share with each other through the process of peer review. In 2018, GeoHealth benefited from more than 83 reviews provided by 53 of our peers for papers submitted to the journal. Thank you all for your awesome efforts toward advancing geohealth now and for the future

Correction for Johansson et al., An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

Correction for “An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics,” by Michael A. Johansson, Karyn M. Apfeldorf, Scott Dobson, Jason Devita, Anna L. Buczak, Benjamin Baugher, Linda J. Moniz, Thomas Bagley, Steven M. Babin, Erhan Guven, Teresa K. Yamana, Jeffrey Shaman, Terry Moschou, Nick Lothian, Aaron Lane, Grant Osborne, Gao Jiang, Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Justin Lessler, Nicholas G. Reich, Derek A. T. Cummings, Stephen A. Lauer, Sean M. Moore, Hannah E. Clapham, Rachel Lowe, Trevor C. Bailey, Markel García-Díez, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Xavier Rodó, Tridip Sardar, Richard Paul, Evan L. Ray, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Alexandria C. Brown, Xi Meng, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas, David Manheim, Melinda Moore, Dhananjai M. Rao, Travis C. Porco, Sarah Ackley, Fengchen Liu, Lee Worden, Matteo Convertino, Yang Liu, Abraham Reddy, Eloy Ortiz, Jorge Rivero, Humberto Brito, Alicia Juarrero, Leah R. Johnson, Robert B. Gramacy, Jeremy M. Cohen, Erin A. Mordecai, Courtney C. Murdock, Jason R. Rohr, Sadie J. Ryan, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Daniel P. Weikel, Antarpreet Jutla, Rakibul Khan, Marissa Poultney, Rita R. Colwell, Brenda Rivera-García, Christopher M. Barker, Jesse E. Bell, Matthew Biggerstaff, David Swerdlow, Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero, Brett M. Forshey, Juli Trtanj, Jason Asher, Matt Clay, Harold S. Margolis, Andrew M. Hebbeler, Dylan George, and Jean-Paul Chretien, which was first published November 11, 2019; 10.1073/pnas.1909865116. The authors note that the affiliation for Xavier Rodó should instead appear as Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) and Climate and Health Program, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal). The corrected author and affiliation lines appear below. The online version has been corrected

An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue