Resolving the so-called "probabilistic paradoxes in legal reasoning" with Bayesian networks

Examples of reasoning problems such as the twins problem and poison paradox have been proposed by legal scholars to demonstrate the limitations of probability theory in legal reasoning. Specifically, such problems are intended to show that use of probability theory results in legal paradoxes. As such, these problems have been a powerful detriment to the use of probability theory – and particularly Bayes theorem – in the law. However, the examples only lead to ‘paradoxes’ under an artificially constrained view of probability theory and the use of the so-called likelihood ratio, in which multiple related hypotheses and pieces of evidence are squeezed into a single hypothesis variable and a single evidence variable. When the distinct relevant hypotheses and evidence are described properly in a causal model (a Bayesian network), the paradoxes vanish. In addition to the twins problem and poison paradox, we demonstrate this for the food tray example, the abuse paradox and the small town murder problem. Moreover, the resulting Bayesian networks provide a powerful framework for legal reasoning

A comment on the PCAST report:skip the “match”/“non-match” stage

This letter comments on the report “Forensic science in criminal courts: Ensuring scientific validity of feature-comparison methods” recently released by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). The report advocates a procedure for evaluation of forensic evidence that is a two-stage procedure in which the first stage is “match”/“non-match” and the second stage is empirical assessment of sensitivity (correct acceptance) and false alarm (false acceptance) rates. Almost always, quantitative data from feature-comparison methods are continuously-valued and have within-source variability. We explain why a two-stage procedure is not appropriate for this type of data, and recommend use of statistical procedures which are appropriate

Peptidoglycan-Modifying Enzyme Pgp1 Is Required for Helical Cell Shape and Pathogenicity Traits in Campylobacter jejuni

The impact of bacterial morphology on virulence and transmission attributes of pathogens is poorly understood. The prevalent enteric pathogen Campylobacter jejuni displays a helical shape postulated as important for colonization and host interactions. However, this had not previously been demonstrated experimentally. C. jejuni is thus a good organism for exploring the role of factors modulating helical morphology on pathogenesis. We identified an uncharacterized gene, designated pgp1 (peptidoglycan peptidase 1), in a calcofluor white-based screen to explore cell envelope properties important for C. jejuni virulence and stress survival. Bioinformatics showed that Pgp1 is conserved primarily in curved and helical bacteria. Deletion of pgp1 resulted in a striking, rod-shaped morphology, making pgp1 the first C. jejuni gene shown to be involved in maintenance of C. jejuni cell shape. Pgp1 contributes to key pathogenic and cell envelope phenotypes. In comparison to wild type, the rod-shaped pgp1 mutant was deficient in chick colonization by over three orders of magnitude and elicited enhanced secretion of the chemokine IL-8 in epithelial cell infections. Both the pgp1 mutant and a pgp1 overexpressing strain – which similarly produced straight or kinked cells – exhibited biofilm and motility defects. Detailed peptidoglycan analyses via HPLC and mass spectrometry, as well as Pgp1 enzyme assays, confirmed Pgp1 as a novel peptidoglycan DL-carboxypeptidase cleaving monomeric tripeptides to dipeptides. Peptidoglycan from the pgp1 mutant activated the host cell receptor Nod1 to a greater extent than did that of wild type. This work provides the first link between a C. jejuni gene and morphology, peptidoglycan biosynthesis, and key host- and transmission-related characteristics