A parametric rule for planning and management of multiple-reservoir systems

Abstract. A parametric rule for multireservoir system operation is formulated and tested. It is a generalization of the well-known space rule to simultaneously account for various system operating goals in addition to the standard goal of avoiding unnecessary spills, including: avoidance of leakage losses, avoidance of conveyance problems, the impact of the reservoir system topology, and assurance of satisfying secondary uses. Theoretical values of the rule’s parameters for each one of these isolated goals are derived. In practice, parameters are evaluated to optimize one or more objective functions selected by the user. The rule is embedded in a simulation model so that optimization requires repeated simulations of the system operation with specific values of the parameters each time. The rule is tested on the case of the multi-reservoir water supply system of the city of Athens, Greece, which is driven by all of the operating goals listed above. Two problems at the system design level are tackled. First, the total release from the system is maximized for a selected level of failure probability. Second, the annual operating cost is minimized for given levels of water demand and failure probability. A detailed simulation model is used in the case study. Sensitivity analysis to the rule’s parameters revealed a subset of insensitive parameters that allowed for rule simplification. Finally, the rule is validated through comparison with a number of heuristic rules also applied to the test case. 2 1

Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin

[EN] Hydroclimatic drought conditions can affect the hydrological services offered by mountain river basins causing severe impacts on the population, becoming a challenge for water resource managers in Andean river basins. This study proposes an integrated methodological framework for assessing the risk of failure in water supply, incorporating probabilistic drought forecasts, which assists in making decisions regarding the satisfaction of consumptive, non-consumptive and environmental requirements under water scarcity conditions. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the risk of failure in multiple stochastic scenarios, which incorporate probabilistic forecasts of drought events based on a Markov chains (MC) model using a recently developed drought index (DI). This methodology was tested in the Machángara river basin located in the south of Ecuador. Results were grouped in integrated satisfaction indexes of the system (DSIG). They demonstrated that the incorporation of probabilistic drought forecasts could better target the projections of simulation scenarios, with a view of obtaining realistic situations instead of optimistic projections that would lead to riskier decisions. Moreover, they contribute to more effective results in order to propose multiple alternatives for prevention and/or mitigation under drought conditions.This study was part of the doctoral thesis of Aviles A. at the Technical University of Valencia. This research was funded by the University of Cuenca through its Research Department (DIUC) and the Municipal public enterprise of telecommunications, drinking water, sewage and sanitation of Cuenca (ETAPA) through the projects: BIdentificacion de los procesos hidrometeorologicos que desencadenan inundaciones en la ciudad de Cuenca usando un radar de precipitacion" and "Ciclos meteorologicos y evapotranspiracion a lo largo de una gradiente altitudinal del Parque Nacional Cajas". The authors also thank INAMHI and the CBRM for providing the information for this study. The authors wish to thank the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for its financial support through the ERAS project (CTM2016-77804-P). We thank Angel Vazquez, who helped in the programming of the multiple simulations. Also we thank to the TropiSeca project.Avilés-Añazco, A.; Solera Solera, A.; Paredes Arquiola, J.; Pedro Monzonís, M. (2018). Integrated methodological framework fos assesing the risk of failure in water supply incorporating drought forecast. Case study: Andean regulated river basin. Water Resources Management. 32(4):1209-1223. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1863-7S12091223324Andreu J, Capilla J, Sanchís E (1996) AQUATOOL, a generalized decision-support system for water-resources planning and operational management. 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Characterising droughts in Central America with uncertain hydro-meteorological data

Central America is frequently affected by droughts that cause significant socio-economic and environmental problems. Drought characterisation, monitoring and forecasting are potentially useful to support water resource management. Drought indices are designed for these purposes, but their ability to characterise droughts depends on the characteristics of the regional climate and the quality of the available data. Local comprehensive and high-quality observational networks of meteorological and hydrological data are not available, which limits the choice of drought indices and makes it important to assess available datasets. This study evaluated which combinations of drought index and meteorological dataset were most suitable for characterising droughts in the region. We evaluated the standardised precipitation index (SPI), a modified version of the deciles index (DI), the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the effective drought index (EDI). These were calculated using precipitation data from the Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), the CRN073 dataset, the Climate Research Unit (CRU), ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and a regional station dataset, and temperature from the CRU and ERA-Interim datasets. The gridded meteorological precipitation datasets were compared to assess how well they captured key features of the regional climate. The performance of all the drought indices calculated with all the meteorological datasets was then evaluated against a drought index calculated using river discharge data. Results showed that the selection of database was more important than the selection of drought index and that the best combinations were the EDI and DI calculated with CHIRPS and CRN073. Results also highlighted the importance of including indices like SPEI for drought assessment in Central America.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-810]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A9-532]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B3-600]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-065]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B3-413]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B4-227]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B4-228]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B5-295]/UCR/Costa RicaUppsala University/[54100006]//SueciaMarie Curie Intra-European Fellowship/[No.329762]//EuropaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela de Físic