Trends in UK production of minerals : UK Minerals Forum Working Group 2013-14 : future mineral scenarios for the UK

Adequate and steady supplies of minerals are essential for the nation’s economic and social development. For its small size Britain is relatively well endowed with mineral resources, and their extraction and use have played an important role in the historic development of the UK economy. The UK continues to have an economically significant minerals industry, with oil and gas, and construction minerals being the dominant sectors in terms of tonnage and value. Although UK coal production is much diminished, coal still makes a significant contribution to our energy mix. A number of industrial minerals support downstream industries and some, important export markets. As in the past, future demand for, and thus production and import of, minerals is continually evolving. It will continue to be strongly influenced by a range of economic, political, technical, social and environmental factors. This report takes a backward look at Britain’s mineral production. The last three decades or so have witnessed major changes in the fortunes of each of Britain’s extractive sectors – oil and gas, coal, construction and industrial minerals, and metals. Whilst the future cannot be simply extrapolated from the past, it is useful to record and analyse some of these trends to see if they identify any drivers for the future. This report presents trends in the production of a wide range of minerals, including for the fossil fuels – coal, natural gas and oil; construction minerals – aggregates, brick clay, cement-making raw materials and gypsum; and a number of industrial minerals – kaolin, ball clay, silica sand, potash, industrial carbonates, fluorspar and barytes. There have been substantial changes in the UK minerals industry over the last 30+ years. Overall the trend has been one of decline, both in terms of minerals production and consumption. The UK is also becoming increasingly dependent on imports of minerals and minerals-based products. This not only places increasing demands on the environments of our trading partners but potentially makes us more vulnerable to supply disruptions through growing global demand for minerals driven by expanding populations and rising incomes and, in some regions, geopolitical instability. This means that there will be a continuing demand for the products of the UK’s extractive industries for the foreseeable future. The extent to which domestic supply is able to meet that demand will ultimately depend on the wide range of relevant policies, both fiscal and regulatory, adopted by future governments, and also the political and environmental acceptability of continued minerals extraction. Britain’s resource security and its longer term access to mineral supplies, both from domestic and overseas sources, will remain a key issue for the economy and politicians for many years to come

Future Minerals Scenarios for the UK

Need - Adequate and resilient supplies of minerals are essential to support the growth and success of the UK economy and therefore the well-being of its population. Resources - Geology is fundamental to which minerals may be produced domestically. The UK is fortunate in being relatively well endowed with mineral resources, and their extraction and use have played an important role in the historic development of the economy. The UK continues to have an economically important minerals industry, with oil, gas, and construction the dominant sectors by tonnage and value. Although UK coal production is much diminished, coal still makes a vital contribution to our current energy mix. A number of industrial minerals support downstream industries and some important export markets. In addition, the UK’s mineral potential still attracts interest - a major new tungsten mine in Devon will start production in 2015. However, the UK is not self-sufficient in a number of key sectors, particularly metals and, increasingly, energy - oil, gas and coal. The future potential to access unconventional energy resources, notably shale gas, is as yet unknown and requires significant further investigation. History - Major changes in the fortunes of each of the UK’s extractive sectors have occurred in the last four decades. Overall the trend has been one of decline, annual volumes of minerals production and consumption being roughly 200 Mt lower (by about 35%) in 2011 than in 1970, although this decline partly reflects the recent recession. A decoupling of economic growth with apparent minerals consumption suggests greater resource efficiency but this may mask under-investment in infrastructure and the move of manufacturing overseas. Nevertheless minerals remain the largest material flow in the economy with some 290 million tonnes produced in 2012, of which 193 million tonnes was from onshore. Drivers of change - Future demand and supply of the products of the UK minerals industry will be affected by a number of external factors. Major drivers of change include: • growth in the economy; • the security and cost of energy supplies; • future investment in construction and infrastructure; • evolving technology; • the balance between the benefits of minerals extraction and the associated impacts on the environment and society; and • the political (and regulatory) framework within which the minerals industry operates. With rapidly declining domestic reserves of oil and gas, ensuring energy supplies at a cost acceptable to consumers as well as the environment is crucial. Despite the prospects of large shale gas resources, commercial evaluation in the UK is still in its infancy and commercial viability as yet unknown. Future population and household growth will require large-scale investment in more housing and new and improved infrastructure, including energy. These in turn will drive demand for construction materials (aggregates, cement, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, bricks, tiles, glass and plaster products), all of which are currently UK-sourced. Some, like cement, lime, bricks and glass manufacture are also energy-intensive. Delivery - It remains to be seen whether regulatory systems and high energy costs frustrate the delivery of the essential raw materials needed by the UK economy over the next 35 years. Balancing such factors with the UK’s carbon reduction targets for 2050 is also challenging. Conclusion - Future minerals supply, whether through imports or domestic production, cannot be taken for granted. Access to long-term supplies of minerals is of crucial importance if the UK is to achieve sustainable growth, a balanced economy, security of energy supply, renewal of infrastructure and increased climate change resilience. This cannot be left entirely to private industry or global markets. It is the responsibility of Government to establish an appropriate policy, regulatory and fiscal framework to encourage sustainable production that balances economic, social and environmental priorities. Given the crucial importance of minerals, and minerals-based products, to the economy and society, the Future Minerals Scenarios Working Group recommends that the minerals industry should work alongside policymakers and other interested stakeholders to develop a UK Minerals Strategy within the UK’s wider industrial strategy. With good will and determined effort it is surely possible to conserve what is essential in our landscapes, habitats and cultural heritage while meeting UK demand for minerals over the next 35 years to 2050

The future of our minerals

An adequate and resilient supply of minerals is essential to the growth of the UK economy and the well-being of the population in terms of security of energy supply, renewal of infrastructure and increased climate change resilience. While we have had the luxury of being able to take availability of minerals for granted in the past, future supplies are by no means guaranteed and this report highlights a number of issues that need to be considered. They include global competition for raw materials and investment concerns within the industry arising from uncertainty about the future relationship of the UK with the EU. The future of our energy minerals is a particularly pressing issue, with a current question mark over the potential of unconventional energy resources. Long-term continued access to minerals is considered crucial if the UK is to achieve sustainable economic growth and rebalance its economy towards production and manufacturing. Positive action must now be taken by Government as well as by statutory regulators, NGOs and the industry to ensure continuity. We believe there is a need for a policy, regulatory and fiscal framework that encourages sustainable production while balancing economic, social and environmental priorities. With goodwill and determined effort, it is surely possible to conserve what is essential in our landscapes, habitats and cultural heritage while meeting UK demand for minerals over the 35 years to 2050

Archaeological and Historical Investigations at the Site of the New Bexar County Justice Center in Downtown San Antonio, Texas

Between 1978 and 1987, archaeologists from the Center for Archaeological Research of The University of Texas at San Antonio conducted test excavations and monitored demolition of buildings on NCB 100 within the Main and Military Plazas National Historic District in downtown San Antonio. The block is the site chosen for construction of a Bexar County Justice Center. The sites of three small residences on the south end of the block were tested. Of these, two were thought to be eligible for nomination to the National Register of Historic Places and for nomination as State Archeological Landmarks. At the north end of the block, the foundations of a small stone house built by the Salinas family were located, and testing was done in the back yard. A well believed built by the Salinas family was examined and recorded. A section of the San Pedro acequia, was exposed and recorded, and it is recommended that part of this waterway be restored during the landscaping for the new building. In 1988, monitoring was done for excavation of a trench between the Bexar County Courthouse and the new Justice Center, which will provide a substreet walkway (tunnel) under Main Street. No significant cultural resources were encountered

Mineral planning factsheet : building and roofing stone

This factsheet provides an overview of natural building and roofing stone, including slate, production in the UK. It forms part of a series on economically important minerals that are extracted in the UK and is primarily intended to inform the land-use planning process

Cyclic loading of an idealized clay-filled fault: comparing hydraulic flow in two clay gouges

The flow of water along discontinuities, such as fractures or faults, is of paramount importance in understanding the hydrogeology of many geological settings. An experimental study was undertaken comprising two experiments on a 30° slip-plane filled with kaolinite or Ball Clay gouge using a bespoke Angled Shear Rig (ASR). The gouge was initially loaded in equal step changes in vertical stress, followed by unloading of the sample in similar equal steps. This was followed by reloading to a new maximum stress, followed by unloading; the test history was therefore load-unload-reload-unload (LURU). The transmissivity of the kaolinite and Ball Clay gouge showed a power-law relationship with vertical stress. The LURU history showed considerable hysteresis, with flow effectively unchanged during unloading, even when vertical stress was close to zero. Reloading resulted in flow similar to that seen during unloading suggesting that the unloading-reloading path is similar to the rebound-reconsolidation line in classic soil mechanics. These observations show the importance of stress history on fracture flow; consideration of just the current stress acting upon a fracture may result in inaccuracies of predicted hydraulic flow. Once a new stress maximum was achieved the transmissivity of the fracture continued to reduce. No significant variation was seen in the flow response of kaolinite and Ball Clay gouge suggesting that the inclusion of illite and quartz did not have a significant influence on the form of the relationship between stress and flow, i.e. both described by a power-law

Abnormal left and right amygdala-orbitofrontal cortical functional connectivity to emotional faces:state versus trait vulnerability markers of depression in bipolar disorder

Background - Amygdala-orbitofrontal cortical (OFC) functional connectivity (FC) to emotional stimuli and relationships with white matter remain little examined in bipolar disorder individuals (BD). Methods - Thirty-one BD (type I; n = 17 remitted; n = 14 depressed) and 24 age- and gender-ratio-matched healthy individuals (HC) viewed neutral, mild, and intense happy or sad emotional faces in two experiments. The FC was computed as linear and nonlinear dependence measures between amygdala and OFC time series. Effects of group, laterality, and emotion intensity upon amygdala-OFC FC and amygdala-OFC FC white matter fractional anisotropy (FA) relationships were examined. Results - The BD versus HC showed significantly greater right amygdala-OFC FC (p = .001) in the sad experiment and significantly reduced bilateral amygdala-OFC FC (p = .007) in the happy experiment. Depressed but not remitted female BD versus female HC showed significantly greater left amygdala-OFC FC (p = .001) to all faces in the sad experiment and reduced bilateral amygdala-OFC FC to intense happy faces (p = .01). There was a significant nonlinear relationship (p = .001) between left amygdala-OFC FC to sad faces and FA in HC. In BD, antidepressants were associated with significantly reduced left amygdala-OFC FC to mild sad faces (p = .001). Conclusions - In BD, abnormally elevated right amygdala-OFC FC to sad stimuli might represent a trait vulnerability for depression, whereas abnormally elevated left amygdala-OFC FC to sad stimuli and abnormally reduced amygdala-OFC FC to intense happy stimuli might represent a depression state marker. Abnormal FC measures might normalize with antidepressant medications in BD. Nonlinear amygdala-OFC FC–FA relationships in BD and HC require further study

Imaging Modality and Frequency in Surveillance of Stage I Seminoma Testicular Cancer: Results From a Randomized, Phase III, Noninferiority Trial (TRISST)

PURPOSE: Survival in stage I seminoma is almost 100%. Computed tomography (CT) surveillance is an international standard of care, avoiding adjuvant therapy. In this young population, minimizing irradiation is vital. The Trial of Imaging and Surveillance in Seminoma Testis (TRISST) assessed whether magnetic resonance images (MRIs) or a reduced scan schedule could be used without an unacceptable increase in advanced relapses. METHODS: A phase III, noninferiority, factorial trial. Eligible participants had undergone orchiectomy for stage I seminoma with no adjuvant therapy planned. Random assignment was to seven CTs (6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months); seven MRIs (same schedule); three CTs (6, 18, and 36 months); or three MRIs. The primary outcome was 6-year incidence of Royal Marsden Hospital stage ≥ IIC relapse (> 5 cm), aiming to exclude increases ≥ 5.7% (from 5.7% to 11.4%) with MRI (v CT) or three scans (v 7); target N = 660, all contributing to both comparisons. Secondary outcomes include relapse ≥ 3 cm, disease-free survival, and overall survival. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed. RESULTS: Six hundred sixty-nine patients enrolled (35 UK centers, 2008-2014); mean tumor size was 2.9 cm, and 358 (54%) were low risk (< 4 cm, no rete testis invasion). With a median follow-up of 72 months, 82 (12%) relapsed. Stage ≥ IIC relapse was rare (10 events). Although statistically noninferior, more events occurred with three scans (nine, 2.8%) versus seven scans (one, 0.3%): 2.5% absolute increase, 90% CI (1.0 to 4.1). Only 4/9 could have potentially been detected earlier with seven scans. Noninferiority of MRI versus CT was also shown; fewer events occurred with MRI (two [0.6%] v eight [2.6%]), 1.9% decrease (-3.5 to -0.3). Per-protocol analyses confirmed noninferiority. Five-year survival was 99%, with no tumor-related deaths. CONCLUSION: Surveillance is a safe management approach-advanced relapse is rare, salvage treatment successful, and outcomes excellent, regardless of imaging frequency or modality. MRI can be recommended to reduce irradiation; and no adverse impact on long-term outcomes was seen with a reduced schedule