298 research outputs found

    Causal inference based on counterfactuals

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    BACKGROUND: The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. DISCUSSION: This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. SUMMARY: Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept

    Association of 6-Minute Walk Performance and Physical Activity With Incident Ischemic Heart Disease Events and Stroke in Peripheral Artery Disease.

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    BackgroundWe determined whether poorer 6-minute walk performance and lower physical activity levels are associated with higher rates of ischemic heart disease (IHD) events in people with lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD).Methods and resultsFive hundred ten PAD participants were identified from Chicago-area medical centers and followed prospectively for 19.0±9.5 months. At baseline, participants completed the 6-minute walk and reported number of blocks walked during the past week (physical activity). IHD events were systematically adjudicated and consisted of new myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and cardiac death. For 6-minute walk, IHD event rates were 25/170 (14.7%) for the third (poorest) tertile, 10/171 (5.8%%) for the second tertile, and 6/169 (3.5%) for the first (best) tertile (P=0.003). For physical activity, IHD event rates were 21/154 (13.6%) for the third (poorest) tertile, 15/174 (8.6%) for the second tertile, and 5/182 (2.7%) for the first (best) tertile (P=0.001). Adjusting for age, sex, race, smoking, body mass index, comorbidities, and physical activity, participants in the poorest 6-minute walk tertile had a 3.28-fold (95% CI 1.17 to 9.17, P=0.024) higher hazard for IHD events, compared with those in the best tertile. Adjusting for confounders including 6-minute walk, participants in the poorest physical activity tertile had a 3.72-fold (95% CI 1.24 to 11.19, P=0.019) higher hazard for IHD events, compared with the highest tertile.ConclusionsSix-minute walk and physical activity predict IHD event rates in PAD. Further study is needed to determine whether interventions that improve 6-minute walk, physical activity, or both can reduce IHD events in PAD

    Relative contributions of six lifestyle- and health-related exposures to epigenetic aging: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study

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    BACKGROUND: DNA methylation-based GrimAge acceleration (GrimAA) is associated with a wide range of age-related health outcomes including cardiovascular disease. Since DNA methylation is modifiable by external and behavioral exposures, it is important to identify which of these exposures may have the strongest contributions to differences in GrimAA, to help guide potential intervention strategies. Here, we assessed the relative contributions of lifestyle- and health-related components, as well as their collective association, to GrimAA. RESULTS: We included 744 participants (391 men and 353 women) from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study with blood DNA methylation information at CARDIA Exam Year (Y) 20 (2005-2006, mean age 45.9 years). Six cumulative exposures by Y20 were included in the analysis: total packs of cigarettes, total alcohol consumption, education years, healthy diet score, sleep hours, and physical activity. We used quantile-based g-computation (QGC) and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) methods to assess the relative contribution of each exposure to a single overall association with GrimAA. We also assessed the collective association of the six components combined with GrimAA. Smoking showed the greatest positive contribution to GrimAA, accounting for 83.5% of overall positive associations of the six exposures with GrimAA (QGC weight = 0.835). The posterior inclusion probability (PIP) of smoking also achieved the highest score of 1.0 from BKMR analysis. Healthy diet and education years showed inverse contributions to GrimAA. We observed a U-shaped pattern in the contribution of alcohol consumption to GrimAA. While smoking was the greatest contributor across sex and race subgroups, the relative contributions of other components varied by subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking, alcohol consumption, and education showed the highest contributions to GrimAA in our study. Higher amounts of smoking and alcohol consumption were likely to contribute to greater GrimAA, whereas achieved education was likely to contribute to lower GrimAA. Identifying pertinent lifestyle- and health-related exposures in a context of collective components can provide direction for intervention strategies and suggests which components should be the primary focus for promoting younger GrimAA

    A Comparison of Red Fluorescent Proteins to Model DNA Vaccine Expression by Whole Animal In Vivo Imaging

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    DNA vaccines can be manufactured cheaply, easily and rapidly and have performed well in pre-clinical animal studies. However, clinical trials have so far been disappointing, failing to evoke a strong immune response, possibly due to poor antigen expression. To improve antigen expression, improved technology to monitor DNA vaccine transfection efficiency is required. In the current study, we compared plasmid encoded tdTomato, mCherry, Katushka, tdKatushka2 and luciferase as reporter proteins for whole animal in vivo imaging. The intramuscular, subcutaneous and tattooing routes were compared and electroporation was used to enhance expression. We observed that overall, fluorescent proteins were not a good tool to assess expression from DNA plasmids, with a highly heterogeneous response between animals. Of the proteins used, intramuscular delivery of DNA encoding either tdTomato or luciferase gave the clearest signal, with some Katushka and tdKatushka2 signal observed. Subcutaneous delivery was weakly visible and nothing was observed following DNA tattooing. DNA encoding haemagglutinin was used to determine whether immune responses mirrored visible expression levels. A protective immune response against H1N1 influenza was induced by all routes, even after a single dose of DNA, though qualitative differences were observed, with tattooing leading to high antibody responses and subcutaneous DNA leading to high CD8 responses. We conclude that of the reporter proteins used, expression from DNA plasmids can best be assessed using tdTomato or luciferase. But, the disconnect between visible expression level and immunogenicity suggests that in vivo whole animal imaging of fluorescent proteins has limited utility for predicting DNA vaccine efficacy

    Prevalence of Disorders Recorded in Dogs Attending Primary-Care Veterinary Practices in England

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    Purebred dog health is thought to be compromised by an increasing occurence of inherited diseases but inadequate prevalence data on common disorders have hampered efforts to prioritise health reforms. Analysis of primary veterinary practice clinical data has been proposed for reliable estimation of disorder prevalence in dogs. Electronic patient record (EPR) data were collected on 148,741 dogs attending 93 clinics across central and south-eastern England. Analysis in detail of a random sample of EPRs relating to 3,884 dogs from 89 clinics identified the most frequently recorded disorders as otitis externa (prevalence 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.1-11.3), periodontal disease (9.3%, 95% CI: 8.3-10.3) and anal sac impaction (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.1-8.1). Using syndromic classification, the most prevalent body location affected was the head-and-neck (32.8%, 95% CI: 30.7-34.9), the most prevalent organ system affected was the integument (36.3%, 95% CI: 33.9-38.6) and the most prevalent pathophysiologic process diagnosed was inflammation (32.1%, 95% CI: 29.8-34.3). Among the twenty most-frequently recorded disorders, purebred dogs had a significantly higher prevalence compared with crossbreds for three: otitis externa (P = 0.001), obesity (P = 0.006) and skin mass lesion (P = 0.033), and popular breeds differed significantly from each other in their prevalence for five: periodontal disease (P = 0.002), overgrown nails (P = 0.004), degenerative joint disease (P = 0.005), obesity (P = 0.001) and lipoma (P = 0.003). These results fill a crucial data gap in disorder prevalence information and assist with disorder prioritisation. The results suggest that, for maximal impact, breeding reforms should target commonly-diagnosed complex disorders that are amenable to genetic improvement and should place special focus on at-risk breeds. Future studies evaluating disorder severity and duration will augment the usefulness of the disorder prevalence information reported herein

    Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

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    Background: Risk prediction for CVD events has been shown to vary according to current smoking status, pack-years smoked over a lifetime, time since quitting and age at quitting. The latter two are closely and inversely related. It is not known whether the age at which one quits smoking is an additional important predictor of CVD events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of CVD events varied according to age at quitting after taking into account current smoking status, lifetime pack-years smoked and time since quitting. Findings. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event for a cohort of participants in the Framingham Offspring Heart Study who attended the fourth examination between ages 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD. Those who quit before the median age of 37 years had a risk of CVD incidence similar to those who were never smokers. The incorporation of age at quitting in the smoking variable resulted in better prediction than the model which had a simple current smoker/non-smoker measure and the one that incorporated both time since quitting and pack-years. These models demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The risk among those quitting more than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those whose age at quitting was prior to 44 years was similar to the risk among never smokers. However, the risk among those quitting less than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those who continued to smoke until 44 years of age (or beyond) was two and a half times higher than that of never smokers. Conclusions: Age at quitting improves the prediction of risk of CVD incidence even after other smoking measures are taken into account. The clinical benefit of adding age at quitting to the model with other smoking measures may be greater than the associated costs. Thus, age at quitting should be considered in addition to smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years when counselling individuals about their cardiovascular risk

    The High Prevalence of Vitamin D Insufficiency across Australian Populations Is Only Partly Explained by Season and Latitude

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    Background Inadequate sun exposure and dietary vitamin D intake can result in vitamin D insufficiency. However, limited data are available on actual vitamin D status and predictors in healthy individuals in different regions and by season.Methods We compared vitamin D status [25-hydroxyvitamin D; 25(OH)D] in people &lt; 60 years of age using data from cross-sectional studies of three regions across Australia: southeast Queensland (27&deg;S; 167 females and 211 males), Geelong region (38&deg;S; 561 females), and Tasmania (43&deg;S; 432 females and 298 males).Results The prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency (&le; 50 nmol/L) in women in winter/spring was 40.5% in southeast Queensland, 37.4% in the Geelong region, and 67.3% in Tasmania. Season, simulated maximum daily duration of vitamin D synthesis, and vitamin D effective daily dose each explained around 14% of the variation in 25(OH)D. Although latitude explained only 3.9% of the variation, a decrease in average 25(OH)D of 1.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.7&ndash;1.3) nmol/L for every degree increase in latitude may be clinically relevant. In some months, we found a high insufficiency or even deficiency when sun exposure protection would be recommended on the basis of the simulated ultraviolet index.Conclusion Vitamin D insufficiency is common over a wide latitude range in Australia. Season appears to be more important than latitude, but both accounted for less than one-fifth of the variation in serum 25(OH)D levels, highlighting the importance of behavioral factors. Current sun exposure guidelines do not seem to fully prevent vitamin D insufficiency, and consideration should be given to their modification or to pursuing other means to achieve vitamin D adequacy.<br /
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