Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6

A remaining carbon budget (RCB) estimates how much CO2 we can emit and still reach a specific temperature target. The RCB concept is attractive since it easily communicates to the public and policymakers, but RCBs are also subject to uncertainties. The expected warming levels for a given carbon budget has a wide uncertainty range, which increases with less ambitious targets, i.e., with higher CO2 emissions and temperatures. Leading causes of RCB uncertainty are the future non-CO2 emissions, Earth system feedbacks, and the spread in the climate sensitivity among climate models. The latter is investigated in this paper, using a simple carbon cycle model and emulators of the temperature responses of the Earth System Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble. Driving 41 CMIP6 emulators with 127 different emission scenarios for the 21st century, we find almost perfect linear relationship between maximum global surface air temperature and cumulative carbon emissions, allowing unambiguous estimates of RCB for each CMIP6 model. The range of these estimates over the model ensemble is a measure of the uncertainty in the RCB arising from the range in climate sensitivity over this ensemble, and it is suggested that observational constraints imposed on the transient climate response in the model ensemble can reduce uncertainty in RCB estimates

Surgical treatment of patients with infective endocarditis:changes in temporal use, patient characteristics, and mortality—a nationwide study

BACKGROUND: Valve surgery guidelines for infective endocarditis (IE) are unchanged over decades and nationwide data about the use of valve surgery do not exist. METHODS: We included patients with first-time IE (1999–2018) using Danish nationwide registries. Proportions of valve surgery were reported for calendar periods (1999–2003, 2004–2008, 2009–2013, 2014–2018). Comparing calendar periods in multivariable analyses, we computed likelihoods of valve surgery with logistic regression and rates of 30 day postoperative mortality with Cox regression. RESULTS: We included 8804 patients with first-time IE; 1981 (22.5%) underwent surgery during admission, decreasing by calendar periods (N = 360 [24.4%], N = 483 [24.0%], N = 553 [23.5%], N = 585 [19.7%], P = < 0.001 for trend). For patients undergoing valve surgery, median age increased from 59.7 to 66.9 years (P ≤ 0.001) and the proportion of males increased from 67.8% to 72.6% (P = 0.008) from 1999–2003 to 2014–2018. Compared with 1999–2003, associated likelihoods of valve surgery were: Odds ratio (OR) = 1.14 (95% CI: 0.96–1.35), OR = 1.20 (95% CI: 1.02–1.42), and OR = 1.10 (95% CI: 0.93–1.29) in 2004–2008, 2009–2013, and 2014–2018, respectively. 30 day postoperative mortalities were: 12.7%, 12.8%, 6.9%, and 9.7% by calendar periods. Compared with 1999–2003, associated mortality rates were: Hazard ratio (HR) = 0.96 (95% CI: 0.65–1.41), HR = 0.43 (95% CI: 0.28–0.67), and HR = 0.55 (95% CI 0.37–0.83) in 2004–2008, 2009–2013, and 2014–2018, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: On a nationwide scale, 22.5% of patients with IE underwent valve surgery. Patient characteristics changed considerably and use of valve surgery decreased over time. The adjusted likelihood of valve surgery was similar between calendar periods with a trend towards an increase while rates of 30 day postoperative mortality decreased. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-022-02761-z

Risk governance in organizations

Dieses Buch dokumentiert 10 Jahre Risk-Governance-Forschung an der Universität Siegen. In 50 Beiträgen reflektieren Forscher und Praktiker Risk Governance vor dem Hintergrund ihrer eigenen Forschungen und/oder Erfahrungen und geben jeweils einen Entwicklungsimpuls für die Zukunft der Risk Governance. Das Buch zeigt die große Bandbreite und Tiefe des Forschungsgebietes auf und diskutiert Grundannahmen, Implementierungsfragen, die Rolle der Risk Governance als Transformationsmotor, ihre Wirkung in den verschiedenen betrieblichen Funktionen, Entwicklungsperspektiven und den Beitrag der Risk Governance zu einer nachhaltigen Ausrichtung von Unternehmen.This book documents 10 years of risk governance research at the University of Siegen. In 50 contributions, researchers and practitioners reflect on risk governance against the background of their own research and/or experience and provide a development impetus for the future of risk governance. The book shows the wide range and depth of the research field and discusses basic assumptions, implementation issues, the role of risk governance as transformation engine, its impact in the various operational functions, development perspectives, and the contribution of risk governance to a sustainable orientation of companies

Path and semimartingale properties of chaos processes

The present paper characterizes various properties of chaos processes which in particular include processes where all time variables admit a Wiener chaos expansion of a fixed finite order. The main focus is on the semimartingale property, p-variation and continuity. The general results obtained are finally used to characterize when a moving average is a semimartingale.Semimartingales p-variation Moving averages Chaos processes Absolutely continuity

A transitioning Arctic surface energy budget: the impacts of solar zenith angle, surface albedo and cloud radiative forcing

Snow surface and sea-ice energy budgets were measured near 87.5°N during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), from August to early September 2008. Surface temperature indicated four distinct temperature regimes, characterized by varying cloud, thermodynamic and solar properties. An initial warm, melt-season regime was interrupted by a 3-day cold regime where temperatures dropped from near zero to -7°C. Subsequently mean energy budget residuals remained small and near zero for 1 week until once again temperatures dropped rapidly and the energy budget residuals became negative. Energy budget transitions were dominated by the net radiative fluxes, largely controlled by the cloudiness. Variable heat, moisture and cloud distributions were associated with changing air-masses. Surface cloud radiative forcing, the net radiative effect of clouds on the surface relative to clear skies, is estimated. Shortwave cloud forcing ranged between -50 W m-2 and zero and varied significantly with surface albedo, solar zenith angle and cloud liquid water. Longwave cloud forcing was larger and generally ranged between 65 and 85 W m-2, except when the cloud fraction was tenuous or contained little liquid water; thus the net effect of the clouds was to warm the surface. Both cold periods occurred under tenuous, or altogether absent, low-level clouds containing little liquid water, effectively reducing the cloud greenhouse effect. Freeze-up progression was enhanced by a combination of increasing solar zenith angles and surface albedo, while inhibited by a large, positive surface cloud forcing until a new air-mass with considerably less cloudiness advected over the experiment area. © 2010 Springer-Verlag