Lower <i>versus</i> higher oxygenation targets in critically ill patients with severe hypoxaemia:secondary Bayesian analysis to explore heterogeneous treatment effects in the Handling Oxygenation Targets in the Intensive Care Unit (HOT-ICU) trial

BACKGROUND: In the Handling Oxygenation Targets in the Intensive Care Unit (HOT-ICU) trial, a lower (8 kPa) vs a higher (12 kPa) PaO(2) target did not affect mortality amongst critically ill adult patients. We used Bayesian statistics to evaluate any heterogeneity in the effect of oxygenation targets on mortality between different patient groups within the HOT-ICU trial. METHODS: We analysed 90-day all-cause mortality using adjusted Bayesian logistic regression models, and assessed heterogeneous treatment effects according to four selected baseline variables using both hierarchical models of subgroups and models with interactions on the continuous scales. Results are presented as mortality probability (%) and relative risk (RR) with 95% credibility intervals (CrI). RESULTS: All 2888 patients in the intention-to-treat cohort of the HOT-ICU trial were included. The adjusted 90-day mortality rates were 43.0% (CrI: 38.3–47.8%) and 42.3% (CrI: 37.7–47.1%) in the lower and higher oxygenation groups, respectively (RR 1.02 [CrI: 0.93–1.11]), with 36.5% probability of an RR <1.00. Analyses of heterogeneous treatment effects suggested a dose–response relationship between baseline norepinephrine dose and increased mortality with the lower oxygenation target, with 95% probability of increased mortality associated with the lower oxygenation target as norepinephrine doses increased. CONCLUSIONS: A lower oxygenation target was unlikely to affect overall mortality amongst critically ill adult patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure. However, our results suggest an increasing mortality risk for patients with a lower oxygen target as the baseline norepinephrine dose increases. These findings warrant additional investigation. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03174002

Использование нетрадиционных методов лечения в дерматовенерологии

ВЕНЕРОЛОГИЯДЕРМАТОЛОГИЯМЕДИЦИНА ТРАДИЦИОННА

Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU):protocol for the development and validation of a bedside clinical prediction rule

INTRODUCTION: Mortality prediction scores are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) and in research, but their predictive value deteriorates as scores age. Existing mortality prediction scores are imprecise and complex, which increases the risk of missing data and decreases the applicability bedside in daily clinical practice. We propose the development and validation of a new, simple and updated clinical prediction rule: the Simplified Mortality Score for use in the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: During the first phase of the study, we will develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule that predicts 90-day mortality on ICU admission. The development sample will comprise 4247 adult critically ill patients acutely admitted to the ICU, enrolled in 5 contemporary high-quality ICU studies/trials. The score will be developed using binary logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise elimination of candidate variables, and subsequently be converted into a point-based clinical prediction rule. The general performance, discrimination and calibration of the score will be evaluated, and the score will be internally validated using bootstrapping. During the second phase of the study, the score will be externally validated in a fully independent sample consisting of 3350 patients included in the ongoing Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial. We will compare the performance of the SMS-ICU to that of existing scores. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We will use data from patients enrolled in studies/trials already approved by the relevant ethical committees and this study requires no further permissions. The results will be reported in accordance with the Transparent Reporting of multivariate prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement, and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal

Associations between enteral nutrition and outcomes in the SUP ‐ ICU trial: Results of exploratory post hoc analyses

Background: Enteral nutrition may affect risks of gastrointestinal bleeding, pneumonia and mortality in critically ill patients and may also modify the effects of pharmacological stress ulcer prophylaxis. We undertook post hoc analyses of the stress ulcer prophylaxis in the intensive care unit trial to assess for any associations and interactions between enteral nutrition and pantoprazole. Methods: Extended Cox models with time‐varying co‐variates and competing events were used to assess potential associations, adjusted for baseline severity of illness. Potential interactions between daily enteral nutrition and allocation to pantoprazole on outcomes were similarly assessed. Results: Enteral nutrition was associated with lower risk of clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding (cause‐specific hazard ratio [HR]: 0.29, 95% confidence interval: [CI] 0.19–0.44, p < .001), higher risk of pneumonia (HR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.14–1.82, p = .003), and lower risk of all‐cause mortality (HR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.18–0.27, p < .001). Enteral nutrition with allocation to pantoprazole was associated with a lower risk of mortality (HR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.21–0.35, p < .001), similar to enteral nutrition with allocation to placebo (HR: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.13–0.23, p < .001). Allocation to pantoprazole with no enteral nutrition had little effect on mortality (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.63–1.09, p = .179), whilst allocation to pantoprazole and receipt of enteral nutrition was mostly compatible with increased all‐cause mortality (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.99–1.64, p = .061). The test of interaction between enteral nutrition and pantoprazole treatment allocation for all‐cause mortality was statistically significant (p = .024). Conclusions: Enteral nutrition was associated with an increased risk of pneumonia and a reduced risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. The interaction between pantoprazole and enteral nutrition suggesting an increased risk of mortality requires further study

Dissemination of Escherichia coli with CTX-M Type ESBL between Humans and Yellow-Legged Gulls in the South of France

Extended Spectrum beta-Lactamase (ESBL) producing Enterobacteriaceae started to appear in the 1980s, and have since emerged as some of the most significant hospital-acquired infections with Escherichia coli and Klebsiella being main players. More than 100 different ESBL types have been described, the most widespread being the CTX-M beta-lactamase enzymes (bla(CTX-M) genes). This study focuses on the zoonotic dissemination of ESBL bacteria, mainly CTX-M type, in the southern coastal region of France. We found that the level of general antibiotic resistance in single randomly selected E. coli isolates from wild Yellow-legged Gulls in France was high. Nearly half the isolates (47.1%) carried resistance to one or more antibiotics (in a panel of six antibiotics), and resistance to tetracycline, ampicillin and streptomycin was most widespread. In an ESBL selective screen, 9.4% of the gulls carried ESBL producing bacteria and notably, 6% of the gulls carried bacteria harboring CTX-M-1 group of ESBL enzymes, a recently introduced and yet the most common clinical CTX-M group in France. Multi locus sequence type and phylogenetic group designations were established for the ESBL isolates, revealing that birds and humans share E. coli populations. Several ESBL producing E. coli isolated from birds were identical to or clustered with isolates with human origin. Hence, wild birds pick up E. coli of human origin, and with human resistance traits, and may accordingly also act as an environmental reservoir and melting pot of bacterial resistance with a potential to re-infect human populations

New-onset atrial fibrillation in the intensive care unit : Protocol for an international inception cohort study (AFIB-ICU)

Introduction New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is frequently observed in critically ill patients and may be associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased mortality. Considerable variation exists in the reported frequencies of NOAF due to the lack of a standardised definition and detection method. Importantly, there are limited data on NOAF in the intensive care unit (ICU). Thus, we aim to provide contemporary epidemiological data on NOAF in the ICU. Methods and Analysis We have designed an international inception cohort study including at least 1,000 consecutive adult patients acutely admitted to the ICU without prior history of persistent or permanent AF. We will present data on the incidence, risk factors, used management strategies and outcomes of NOAF. We will register data daily during stay in the ICU for a maximum of 90 days after admission. The incidence of NOAF and management strategies used will be presented descriptively, and we will use Cox regression analyses including competing risk analyses to assess risk factors for NOAF and any association with 90-day mortality. Conclusion The outlined international AFIB-ICU inception cohort study will provide contemporary data on the incidence, risk factors, used management strategies and outcomes of NOAF in adult ICU patients. Ethics and dissemination This observational study poses no risk to the included patients. All participating sites will obtain relevant approvals according to national laws before patient enrollment. Funding sources will have no influence on data handling, analyses or writing of the manuscript. The study report(s) will be submitted to an international peer-reviewed journal.Peer reviewe

Causal inference for planning randomised critical care trials:Protocol for a scoping review

BACKGROUND: Randomised clinical trials in critical care are prone to inconclusiveness owing, in part, to undue optimism about effect sizes and suboptimal accounting for heterogeneous treatment effects. Planned predictive enrichment based on secondary critical care data (often very rich with respect to both data types and temporal granularity) and causal inference methods may help overcome these challenges, but no overview exists about their use to this end. METHODS: We will conduct a scoping review to assess the extent and nature of the use of causal inference from secondary data for planned predictive enrichment of randomised clinical trials in critical care. We will systematically search 10 general and specialty journals for reports published on or after 1 January 2018, of randomised clinical trials enrolling adult critically ill patients. We will collect trial metadata (e.g., recruitment period and phase) and, when available, information pertaining to the focus of the review (predictive enrichment based on causal inference estimates from secondary data): causal inference methods, estimation techniques and software used; types of patient populations; data provenance, types and models; and the availability of the data (public or not). The results will be reported in a descriptive manner. DISCUSSION: The outlined scoping review aims to assess the use of causal inference methods and secondary data for planned predictive enrichment in randomised critical care trials. This will help guide methodological improvements to increase the utility, and facilitate the use, of causal inference estimates when planning such trials in the future

Albumin administration in septic shock-Protocol for post-hoc analyses of data from a multicentre RCT.

BACKGROUND Intravenous (IV) albumin is suggested for patients with septic shock who have received large amounts of IV crystalloids; a conditional recommendation based on moderate certainty of evidence. Clinical variation in the administration of IV albumin in septic shock may exist according to patient characteristics and location. METHODS This is a protocol and statistical analysis plan for a post-hoc secondary study of the Conservative versus Liberal Approach to Fluid Therapy of Septic Shock in Intensive Care (CLASSIC) RCT of 1554 adult ICU patients with septic shock. We will assess if specific baseline characteristics or trial site are associated with the administration of IV albumin during ICU stay using Cox models with competing events. All models will be adjusted for the treatment allocation in CLASSIC (restrictive vs. standard IV fluid), and all analyses will consider competing events (death, ICU discharge and loss-to-follow-up). We will present results as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals and p-values for the associations of baseline characteristics or site with IV albumin administration. Between-group differences (interactions) will be assessed using p-values from likelihood ratio tests. All results will be considered exploratory only. DISCUSSION This secondary study of the CLASSIC RCT may yield important insight into potential practice variation in the administration of albumin in septic shock