The Role of Geography and Territorial Planning in the Spreading of SARS-CoV-2. A Case Study on the Peculiarities of the Swedish Rurality

This article studies the spread of SARS-CoV-2 at a local level in Sweden and the role of geographic features that might have influenced the path of the virus. Then, the differences between rural and urban contexts have been analyzed. Results showed that the Swedish rurality seems to have been hit less by the pandemic than the ones of many other Western countries, possibly because of its more advanced stage of rurbanisation and a better institutional government and planning of its former rural areas. On the other hand, other Western countries have chosen models which appear closer to the American one, in which the social and economic structure of the urbanized areas, from the hamlet to the metropolis, is disappearing in favour of a sprawl model that could have boosted the infection

Geometrical and physical properties of the 1982-84 deformation source at Campi Flegrei - Italy

Deformation of the ground surface in volcanic areas is generally recognized as a reliable indicator of unrest, possibly resulting from the intrusion of fresh magma within the shallow rock layers. The intrusion process is usually represented by a deformation source such as an ellipsoidal pressurized cavity, embedded within a homogeneous and elastic half-space. Similar source models allow inferring the depth, the location and the (incremental) volume of the intrusion, which are very important parameters for volcanic risk implications. However, assuming a homogeneous and elastic rheology and, assigning a priori the shape and the mechanism of the source (within a very restricted “library” of available solutions) may bias considerably the inference of source parameters. In complete generality, any point source deformation, including overpressure sources, may be described in terms of a suitable moment tensor, while the assumption of an overpressure source strongly restricts the variety of allowable moment tensors. In particular, by assuming a pressurized cavity, we rule out the possibility that either shear failure may precede magma emplacement (seismically induced intrusion) or may accompany it (mixed tensile and shear mode fracture). Another possibility is that a pre-existent weakness plane may be chosen by the ascending magma (fracture toughness heterogeneity). We perform joint inversion of levelling and EDM data (part of latter are unpublished), collected during the 1982-84 unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera: a 43% misfit reduction is obtained for a general moment source if the elastic heterogeneities computed from seismic tomography are accouted for. The inferred source is at 5.2 km depth but cannot be interpreted as a simple pressurized cavity. Moreover, if mass conservation is accounted for, magma emplaced within a shallow source must come from a (generally deeper) reservoir, which is usually assumed to be deep enough to be simply neglected. At Campi Flegrei, seismic tomography indicates that the “deep” magma source is rather shallow (at 7-8 km depth), so that its presence should be included in any thorough attempt to source modeling. Taking into account a deflating source at 7.5 km depth (represented either as a horizontal sill or as an isotropic cavity) and an inflating moment source, the fit of both levelling and EDM data improves further (misfit reduction 80%), but still the best fitting moment source (at 5.5 km depth) falls outside the range of pressurized ellipsoidal cavities. The shallow moment source may be decomposed in a tensile and a shear dislocation. No clue is obtained that the shear and the tensile mechanisms should be located in different positions. Our favourite interpretation is in terms of a crack opening in mixed tensile and shear mode, as would be provided by fluid magma unwelding pre-stressed solid rock. Although this decomposition of the source is not unique, the proposed solution is physically motivated by the minimum overpressure requirement. An important implication of this new interpretation is that the magma emplaced in the shallow moment source during the 1982-84 unrest was not added to already resident magma at the same position

Near-field propagation of tsunamis from megathrust earthquakes

We investigate controls on tsunami generation and propagation in the near-field of great megathrust earthquakes using a series of numerical simulations of subduction and tsunamigenesis on the Sumatran forearc. The Sunda megathrust here is advanced in its seismic cycle and may be ready for another great earthquake. We calculate the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave heights for about 100 complex earthquake ruptures whose synthesis was informed by reference to geodetic and stress accumulation studies. Remarkably, results show that, for any near-field location: (1) the timing of tsunami inundation is independent of slip-distribution on the earthquake or even of its magnitude, and (2) the maximum wave height is directly proportional to the vertical coseismic displacement experienced at that location. Both observations are explained by the dominance of long wavelength crustal flexure in near-field tsunamigenesis. The results show, for the first time, that a single estimate of vertical coseismic displacement might provide a reliable short-term forecast of the maximum height of tsunami waves

The most stringent upper limit from dynamical models on the mass of a central black hole in 47 Tucanae

Globular clusters (GCs) were proposed as promising sites for discovering intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs), possibly providing crucial insights into the formation and evolution of these elusive objects. The Galactic GC 47 Tucanae (also known as NGC 104) has been suggested as a potential IMBH host, but, previous studies have yielded conflicting results. We, therefore, present self-consistent dynamical models based on distribution functions (DFs) that depend on action integrals to assess the presence (or absence) of an IMBH in 47 Tucanae. Leveraging state-of-the-art Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer and Hubble Space Telescope data, we analyzed the three-dimensional (3D) kinematics of the cluster's central regions, fitting individual star velocities down to the sub-arcsec scale (approximately $10^{-2}$ pc). According to our analysis, the inner kinematics of 47 Tucanae is incompatible with a central BH more massive than 578 M$_\odot$ (at $3\sigma$). This is the most stringent upper limit on the mass of a putative IMBH in 47 Tucanae that has been put by any dynamical study.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics (A&A

Inter and intra-population variability of the migratory behaviour of a short-distance partial migrant, the Eurasian Stone-curlew Burhinus oedicnemus (Charadriiformes, Burhinidae)

Migratory behaviour in birds shows a remarkable variability at species, population and individual levels. Short-distance migrants often adopt a partial migratory strategy and tend to have a flexible migration schedule that allows a more effective response to extreme environmental variations. Weather seasonality and environmental heterogeneity have been reported as significant factors in the diversification of migratory behaviour for Mediterranean migrants, but relatively few studies investigated the migration patterns of non-passerine birds migrating within the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we investigated the migratory strategy of 40 Eurasian Stone-curlews Burhinus oedicnemus tagged with geolocators and GPS-GSM tags and belonging to continental and Mediterranean populations of the Italian peninsula. The proportion of migrants was higher in continental populations, but we observed a significant variability also within Mediterranean populations. All birds spent the winter within the Mediterranean basin. Continental Stone-curlews departed earlier in spring and later in autumn and covered longer distances than those from Mediterranean areas. The speed of migration did not change between seasons for continental birds, while Mediterranean individuals migrated faster in spring. The likelihood of departure for autumn migration of GPS-tagged birds increased when temperatures were near or below 0 °C suggesting that Stone-curlews tend to delay departure until weather conditions worsen abruptly. As a consequence of global warming in the Mediterranean, the frequency of migratory birds in the considered populations might decrease in the near future. This could affect the distribution of species throughout the year and should be taken into account when targeting conservation measures

Which Picker Fits My Data? A Quantitative Evaluation of Deep Learning Based Seismic Pickers

Seismic event detection and phase picking are the base of many seismological workflows. In recent years, several publications demonstrated that deep learning approaches significantly outperform classical approaches, achieving human-like performance under certain circumstances. However, as studies differ in the datasets and evaluation tasks, it is unclear how the different approaches compare to each other. Furthermore, there are no systematic studies about model performance in cross-domain scenarios, that is, when applied to data with different characteristics. Here, we address these questions by conducting a large-scale benchmark. We compare six previously published deep learning models on eight data sets covering local to teleseismic distances and on three tasks: event detection, phase identification and onset time picking. Furthermore, we compare the results to a classical Baer-Kradolfer picker. Overall, we observe the best performance for EQTransformer, GPD and PhaseNet, with a small advantage for EQTransformer on teleseismic data. Furthermore, we conduct a cross-domain study, analyzing model performance on data sets they were not trained on. We show that trained models can be transferred between regions with only mild performance degradation, but models trained on regional data do not transfer well to teleseismic data. As deep learning for detection and picking is a rapidly evolving field, we ensured extensibility of our benchmark by building our code on standardized frameworks and making it openly accessible. This allows model developers to easily evaluate new models or performance on new data sets. Furthermore, we make all trained models available through the SeisBench framework, giving end-users an easy way to apply these models

Lunar Gravitational-Wave Antenna

Monitoring of vibrational eigenmodes of an elastic body excited by gravitational waves was one of the first concepts proposed for the detection of gravitational waves. At laboratory scale, these experiments became known as resonant-bar detectors first developed by Joseph Weber in the 1960s. Due to the dimensions of these bars, the targeted signal frequencies were in the kHz range. Weber also pointed out that monitoring of vibrations of Earth or Moon could reveal gravitational waves in the mHz band. His Lunar Surface Gravimeter experiment deployed on the Moon by the Apollo 17 crew had a technical failure rendering the data useless. In this article, we revisit the idea and propose a Lunar Gravitational-Wave Antenna (LGWA). We find that LGWA could become an important partner observatory for joint observations with the space-borne, laser-interferometric detector LISA, and at the same time contribute an independent science case due to LGWA's unique features. Technical challenges need to be overcome for the deployment of the experiment, and development of inertial vibration sensor technology lays out a future path for this exciting detector concept.Comment: 29 pages, 17 figure

Cohort profile: the Turin prostate cancer prognostication (TPCP) cohort

IntroductionProstate cancer (PCa) is the most frequent tumor among men in Europe and has both indolent and aggressive forms. There are several treatment options, the choice of which depends on multiple factors. To further improve current prognostication models, we established the Turin Prostate Cancer Prognostication (TPCP) cohort, an Italian retrospective biopsy cohort of patients with PCa and long-term follow-up. This work presents this new cohort with its main characteristics and the distributions of some of its core variables, along with its potential contributions to PCa research.MethodsThe TPCP cohort includes consecutive non-metastatic patients with first positive biopsy for PCa performed between 2008 and 2013 at the main hospital in Turin, Italy. The follow-up ended on December 31st 2021. The primary outcome is the occurrence of metastasis; death from PCa and overall mortality are the secondary outcomes. In addition to numerous clinical variables, the study’s prognostic variables include histopathologic information assigned by a centralized uropathology review using a digital pathology software system specialized for the study of PCa, tumor DNA methylation in candidate genes, and features extracted from digitized slide images via Deep Neural Networks.ResultsThe cohort includes 891 patients followed-up for a median time of 10 years. During this period, 97 patients had progression to metastatic disease and 301 died; of these, 56 died from PCa. In total, 65.3% of the cohort has a Gleason score less than or equal to 3 + 4, and 44.5% has a clinical stage cT1. Consistent with previous studies, age and clinical stage at diagnosis are important prognostic factors: the crude cumulative incidence of metastatic disease during the 14-years of follow-up increases from 9.1% among patients younger than 64 to 16.2% for patients in the age group of 75-84, and from 6.1% for cT1 stage to 27.9% in cT3 stage.DiscussionThis study stands to be an important resource for updating existing prognostic models for PCa on an Italian cohort. In addition, the integrated collection of multi-modal data will allow development and/or validation of new models including new histopathological, digital, and molecular markers, with the goal of better directing clinical decisions to manage patients with PCa

Emergenza sismica nel centro Italia 2016-2017. Secondo rapporto del gruppo operativo SISMIKO. Sviluppo e mantenimento della rete sismica mobile a seguito del terremoto di Amatrice Mw 6.0 (24 agosto 2016, Italia centrale)

La rete sismica temporanea installata dal gruppo operativo INGV SISMIKO a seguito del terremoto del 24 agosto 2016 tra i Monti della Laga e la Valnerina, è stata ampliata nel settore settentrionale a seguito dei forti terremoti avvenuti alla fine del mese di ottobre 2016. Successivamente alle due scosse di Mw 5.4 e 5.9 che il 26 ottobre hanno interessato l’area al confine Marche-Umbria tra i Comuni di Castelsantangelo sul Nera (MC), Norcia (PG) e Arquata del Tronto (AP), la geometria della rete è stata estesa di circa 25 km verso nord con l’attivazione di ulteriori tre stazioni temporanee di cui una, da subito, disposta per la trasmissione dei dati in tempo reale e per l’inserimento nel sistema di sorveglianza sismica dell’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). Un’ultima stazione è stata inoltre installata nei pressi di Campello del Clitunno in provincia di Perugia ad ovest della sequenza, a seguito del terremoto Mw 6.5 che la mattina del 30 ottobre ha interessato l’intera area già fortemente provata dalla sequenza in corso; questo è stato il più forte terremoto registrato negli ultimi 30 in Italia. A circa 5 mesi dall’inizio dell’emergenza sismica, la rete temporanea conta quindi 23 stazioni che da metà dicembre sono tutte trasmesse in tempo reale ai diversi centri di acquisizione INGV, ovvero Milano, Ancona e Grottaminarda ma soprattutto Roma dove i dati vengono contestualmente archiviati nell’European Integrated Data Archive (EIDA) e integrati nel sistema di monitoraggio e sorveglianza sismica dell’INGV; per la sorveglianza sono incluse solo parte delle stazioni. Nelle ultime settimane, le attività di campagna del gruppo operativo SISMIKO sono state costantemente focalizzate alla cura e alla manutenzione della strumentazione per garantire la continuità della trasmissione e dell’acquisizione dei dati, a volte compromesse da malfunzionamenti legati al maltempo. Alla data di aggiornamento del presente report, non è ancora stata decretata una dismissione o una rimodulazione della geometria della rete sismica temporanea, anche in considerazione della attività sismica in corso a tutt’oggi molto sostenuta. Tutti i dati acquisiti dalle stazioni temporanee SISMIKO, sono distribuiti senza alcun vincolo, al pari dei dati della Rete Sismica Nazionale (RSN, codice di rete IV), ed utilizzati per prodotti scientifici in tempo reale (localizzazioni di sala, calcolo dei Time Domain Moment Tensor -TDMT delle ShakeMaps, ecc) e per l’aggiornamento dei database dell’INGV come l’Italian Seismological Instrumental and Parametric Database (ISIDe) con la revisione del Bollettino Sismico Italiano (BSI), dell’INGV Strong Motion Data (ISMD) e dell’ITalian ACcelerometric Archive (ITACA), dell’European-Mediterranean Regional Centroid Moment Tensors (RCMT) e nei lavori scientifici che utilizzano forme d’onda velocimetriche ed accelerometriche (ri- localizzazioni, studi della sorgente sismica ecc.).Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)Published1SR. TERREMOTI - Servizi e ricerca per la Societ