Publishing Wikipedia usage data with strong privacy guarantees

For almost 20 years, the Wikimedia Foundation has been publishing statistics about how many people visited each Wikipedia page on each day. This data helps Wikipedia editors determine where to focus their efforts to improve the online encyclopedia, and enables academic research. In June 2023, the Wikimedia Foundation, helped by Tumult Labs, addressed a long-standing request from Wikipedia editors and academic researchers: it started publishing these statistics with finer granularity, including the country of origin in the daily counts of page views. This new data publication uses differential privacy to provide robust guarantees to people browsing or editing Wikipedia. This paper describes this data publication: its goals, the process followed from its inception to its deployment, the algorithms used to produce the data, and the outcomes of the data release.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, Theory and Practice of Differential Privacy (TPDP) 202

Randomised controlled trial combining vitamin E-functionalised chocolate with physical exercise to reduce the risk of protein-energy malnutrition in predementia aged people: study protocol for Choko-Age

Objective: Protein-energy malnutrition and the subsequent muscle wasting (sarcopenia) are common ageing complications. It is knowing to be also associated with dementia. Our programme will test the cytoprotective functions of vitamin E combined with the cortisol-lowering effect of chocolate polyphenols (PP), in combination with muscle anabolic effect of adequate dietary protein intake and physical exercise to prevent the age-dependent decline of muscle mass and its key underpinning mechanisms including mitochondrial function, and nutrient metabolism in muscle in the elderly. Methods and analysis: In 2020, a 6-month double-blind randomised controlled trial in 75 predementia older people was launched to prevent muscle mass loss, in respond to the 'Joint Programming Initiative A healthy diet for a healthy life'. In the run-in phase, participants will be stabilised on a protein-rich diet (0.9-1.0 g protein/kg ideal body weight/day) and physical exercise programme (high-intensity interval training specifically developed for these subjects). Subsequently, they will be randomised into three groups (1:1:1). The study arms will have a similar isocaloric diet and follow a similar physical exercise programme. Control group (n=25) will maintain the baseline diet; intervention groups will consume either 30 g/day of dark chocolate containing 500 mg total PP (corresponding to 60 mg epicatechin) and 100 mg vitamin E (as RRR-alpha-tocopherol) (n=25); or the high polyphenol chocolate without additional vitamin E (n=25). Muscle mass will be the primary endpoint. Other outcomes are neurocognitive status and previously identified biomolecular indices of frailty in predementia patients. Muscle biopsies will be collected to assess myocyte contraction and mitochondrial metabolism. Blood and plasma samples will be analysed for laboratory endpoints including nutrition metabolism and omics. Ethics and dissemination: All the ethical and regulatory approvals have been obtained by the ethical committees of the Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Integrata of Verona with respect to scientific content and compliance with applicable research and human subjects' regulation. Given the broader interest of the society toward undernutrition in the elderly, we identify four main target audiences for our research activity: national and local health systems, both internal and external to the project; targeted population (the elderly); general public; and academia. These activities include scientific workshops, public health awareness campaigns, project dedicated website and publication is scientific peer-review journals. Trial registration number: NCT05343611

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Estimating mental states of a depressed person with bayesian networks

In this work in progress paper we present an approach based on Bayesian Networks to model the relationship between mental states and empirical observations in a depressed person. We encode relationships and domain expertise as a Hierarchical Bayesian Network. Mental states are represented as latent (hidden) variables and the measurements found in the data are encoded as a probability distribution generated by such latent variables; we provide examples of how the network can be used to estimate mental states

Estimating mental states of a depressed person with bayesian networks

In this work in progress paper we present an approach based on Bayesian Networks to model the relationship between mental states and empirical observations in a depressed person. We encode relationships and domain expertise as a Hierarchical Bayesian Network. Mental states are represented as latent (hidden) variables and the measurements found in the data are encoded as a probability distribution generated by such latent variables; we provide examples of how the network can be used to estimate mental states

A masonry infill wall model with in-plane\u2014out-of-plane interaction applied to pushover analysis of RC frames

After many recent seismic events, heavy damage and failures of unreinforced masonry (URM) walls proved to be both a considerable economical loss and a serious hazard for human safety. Despite being classified as non-structural elements and often neglected in design numerical models, URM infills have a relevant influence on the seismic behaviour of structures. Simple and more refined models for URM infill walls have existed for decades, but usually they refer only to in-plane actions. Recently, however, a few macromodels that include out-of-plane actions were proposed, but limited studies have shown their application to realistic reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures. The aim of this work is to adopt and calibrate a macro-model for masonry infill walls that considers simultaneous in-plane and out-of-plane actions, and apply it to the nonlinear pushover analysis of RC frame structures representative of traditionally and seismically designed buildings. To this scope, a recently proposed URM infill macro-model with in-plane out-of-plane interaction is calibrated with existing experimental data from quasi-static tests performed on two types of clay masonry infill walls that are commonly found both in Italy and other Mediterranean countries. The calibrated elements are included in planar numerical models of RC framed structures representative of the Italian building stock, considering both traditionally and newly designed frames. Nonlinear static pushover analyses are performed on the frames with simultaneous static forces acting on the walls elements in the out-of-plane direction. Increasing the out-of-plane loads induces both cracking and failure of the walls at lower lateral drifts of the buildings and also affects the overall response curve of the frames