An Accurate Data Preparation Approach for the Prediction of Mortality in ACLF Patients using the CANONIC Dataset

The incidence of chronic liver disease has increased in Europe and can lead to Acute on Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) which is associated with high levels of mortality due to multisystem organ failure. The characteristics of the ACLF patients can change very rapidly within a short period of time. Continuous assessment of their recovery status is critical for clinicians to adjust and deliver effective treatment. The aim of this paper is to validate the usefulness of a data preparation approach by combining different criteria to replace missing values, balance target-class variables, select useful patient characteristics and optimise hyperparameters of machine learning models for the prediction of ACLF associated mortality rates. A key step in the data preparation is a feature selection Mutual Information (MI) based multivariate approach to build smaller, and yet equally and in some cases more informative, subsets of patient characteristics than those frequently proposed for the prediction of mortality, from patients with ACLF in the CANONIC dataset. The usefulness of the data preparation approach proposed to predict mortality was evaluated by training the XGBoost and Logistic Regression models with the prepared data. Evaluations of the models trained using a test set provided evidence of an overall high accuracy in the prediction of the mortality rates of patients for days after their diagnosis, and in some cases even higher when reduced and more informative subsets of patient characteristics were found

Physiological concentrations of bile acids down-regulate agonist induced secretion in colonic epithelial cells

In patients with bile acid malabsorption, high concentrations of bile acids enter the colon and stimulate Cl− and fluid secretion, thereby causing diarrhoea. However, deoxycholic acid (DCA), the predominant colonic bile acid, is normally present at lower concentrations where its role in regulating transport is unclear. Thus, the current study set out to investigate the effects of physiologically relevant DCA concentrations on colonic epithelial secretory function. Cl− secretion was measured as changes in short-circuit current across voltage-clamped T84 cell monolayers. At high concentrations (0.5–1 mM), DCA acutely stimulated Cl− secretion but this effect was associated with cell injury, as evidenced by decreased transepithelial resistance (TER) and increased lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) release. In contrast, chronic (24 hrs) exposure to lower DCA concentrations (10–200 μM) inhibited responses to Ca2+ and cAMP-dependent secretagogues without altering TER, LDH release, or secretagogue-induced increases in intracellular second messengers. Other bile acids – taurodeoxycholic acid, chenodeoxycholic acid and cholic acid – had similar antisecretory effects. DCA (50 μM) rapidly stimulated phosphorylation of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFr) and both ERK and p38 MAPKs (mitogen-activated protein kinases). The EGFr inhibitor, AG1478, and the protein synthesis inhibitor, cycloheximide, reversed the antisecretory effects of DCA, while the MAPK inhibitors, PD98059 and SB203580, did not. In summary, our studies suggest that, in contrast to its acute prosecretory effects at pathophysiological concentrations, lower, physiologically relevant, levels of DCA chronically down-regulate colonic epithelial secretory function. On the basis of these data, we propose a novel role for bile acids as physiological regulators of colonic secretory capacity

Predictive Value of Carcinoembryonic Antigen in Symptomatic Patients without Colorectal Cancer: A Post-Hoc Analysis within the COLONPREDICT Cohort

We aimed to assess the risk of cancer in patients with abdominal symptoms after a complete colonoscopy without colorectal cancer (CRC), according to the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) concentration, as well as its diagnostic accuracy. For this purpose, we performed a post-hoc analysis within a cohort of 1431 patients from the COLONPREDICT study, prospectively designed to assess the fecal immunochemical test accuracy in detecting CRC. Over 36.5 +/- 8.4 months, cancer was detected in 115 (8%) patients. Patients with CEA values higher than 3 ng/mL revealed an increased risk of cancer (HR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3-3.1), CRC (HR 4.4, 95% CI 1.1-17.7) and non-gastrointestinal cancer (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-2.8). A new malignancy was detected in 51 (3.6%) patients during the first year and three variables were independently associated: anemia (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.3-5.8), rectal bleeding (OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.7) and CEA level >3 ng/mL (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.7-7.1). However, CEA was increased only in 31.8% (95% CI, 16.4-52.7%) and 50% (95% CI, 25.4-74.6%) of patients with and without anemia, respectively, who would be diagnosed with cancer during the first year of follow-up. On the basis of this information, CEA should not be used to assist in the triage of patients presenting with lower bowel symptoms who have recently been ruled out a CRC

Arachidonic Acid but not Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA) and Oleic Acid Activates NF-κB and Elevates ICAM-1 Expression in Caco-2 Cells

In patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), intestinal activation of the transcription factor NF-κB as well as intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1 expression, which is involved in recruiting leukocytes to the side of inflammation is increased. Moreover, colonic arachidonic acid (ARA) proportions are increased and oleic acid (OA) proportions are decreased. Fish oils are protective in IBD patients however, a side-by-side comparison between effects of fish oils, ARA and OA has not been made. We therefore, compared effects of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) versus ARA and OA on ICAM-1 expression in Caco-2 enterocytes. To validate our model we showed that dexamethasone, sulfasalazine and PPARα (GW7647) or PPARγ (troglitazone) agonists significantly lowered ICAM-1 expression. ICAM-1 expression of non-stimulated and cytokine stimulated Caco-2 cells cultured for 22 days with ARA was significant higher as compared to EPA and OA. Furthermore, ARA increased NF-κB activation in a reporter cell-line as compared to EPA. Antibody array analysis of multiple inflammatory proteins particularly showed an increased monocyte chemotactic protein (MCP)-1 and angiogenin production and a decreased interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-10 production by ARA as compared to EPA. Our results showed that ARA but not EPA and OA activates NF-κB and elevates ICAM-1 expression in Caco-2 enterocytes. It suggests that replacement of ARA by EPA or OA in the colon mucosa might have beneficial effects for IBD patients. Finally, we suggest that the pro-inflammatory effects of ARA versus EPA and OA are not related to PPARγ activation and/or eicosanoid formation

Blood metabolomics uncovers inflammation-associated mitochondrial dysfunction as a potential mechanism underlying ACLF (vol 72, pg 688, 2020)

Cellular mechanisms in basic and clinical gastroenterology and hepatolog

The PREDICT study uncovers three clinical courses of acutely decompensated cirrhosis that have distinct pathophysiology

Background & Aims: Acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis is defined as the acute development of ascites, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, infection or any combination thereof, requiring hospitalization. The presence of organ failure(s) in patients with AD defines acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). The PREDICT study is a European, prospective, observational study, designed to characterize the clinical course of AD and to identify predictors of ACLF. Methods: A total of 1,071 patients with AD were enrolled. We collected detailed pre-specified information on the 3-month period prior to enrollment, and clinical and laboratory data at enrollment. Patients were then closely followed up for 3 months. Outcomes (liver transplantation and death) at 1 year were also recorded. Results: Three groups of patients were identified. Pre-ACLF patients (n = 218) developed ACLF and had 3-month and 1-year mortality rates of 53.7% and 67.4%, respectively. Unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC) patients (n = 233) required ≥1 readmission but did not develop ACLF and had mortality rates of 21.0% and 35.6%, respectively. Stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC) patients (n = 620) were not readmitted, did not develop ACLF and had a 1-year mortality rate of only 9.5%. The 3 groups differed significantly regarding the grade and course of systemic inflammation (high-grade at enrollment with aggravation during follow-up in pre-ACLF; low-grade at enrollment with subsequent steady-course in UDC; and low-grade at enrollment with subsequent improvement in SDC) and the prevalence of surrogates of severe portal hypertension throughout the study (high in UDC vs. low in pre-ACLF and SDC). Conclusions: Acute decompensation without ACLF is a heterogeneous condition with 3 different clinical courses and 2 major pathophysiological mechanisms: systemic inflammation and portal hypertension. Predicting the development of ACLF remains a major future challenge. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT03056612. Lay summary: Herein, we describe, for the first time, 3 different clinical courses of acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis after hospital admission. The first clinical course includes patients who develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and have a high short-term risk of death – termed pre-ACLF. The second clinical course (unstable decompensated cirrhosis) includes patients requiring frequent hospitalizations unrelated to ACLF and is associated with a lower mortality risk than pre-ACLF. Finally, the third clinical course (stable decompensated cirrhosis), includes two-thirds of all patients admitted to hospital with AD – patients in this group rarely require hospital admission and have a much lower 1-year mortality risk

Addressing Profiles of Systemic Inflammation Across the Different Clinical Phenotypes of Acutely Decompensated Cirrhosis

Background: Patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis (AD) may or may not develop acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). ACLF is characterized by high-grade systemic inflammation, organ failures (OF) and high short-term mortality. Although patients with AD cirrhosis exhibit distinct clinical phenotypes at baseline, they have low short-term mortality, unless ACLF develops during follow-up. Because little is known about the association of profile of systemic inflammation with clinical phenotypes of patients with AD cirrhosis, we aimed to investigate a battery of markers of systemic inflammation in these patients. Methods: Upon hospital admission baseline plasma levels of 15 markers (cytokines, chemokines, and oxidized albumin) were measured in 40 healthy controls, 39 compensated cirrhosis, 342 AD cirrhosis, and 161 ACLF. According to EASL-CLIF criteria, AD cirrhosis was divided into three distinct clinical phenotypes (AD-1: Creatinine<1.5, no HE, no OF; AD-2: creatinine 1.5–2, and or HE grade I/II, no OF; AD-3: Creatinine<1.5, no HE, non-renal OF). Results: Most markers were slightly abnormal in compensated cirrhosis, but markedly increased in AD. Patients with ACLF exhibited the largest number of abnormal markers, indicating “full-blown” systemic inflammation (all markers). AD-patients exhibited distinct systemic inflammation profiles across three different clinical phenotypes. In each phenotype, activation of systemic inflammation was only partial (30% of the markers). Mortality related to each clinical AD-phenotype was significantly lower than mortality associated with ACLF (p < 0.0001 by gray test). Among AD-patients baseline systemic inflammation (especially IL-8, IL-6, IL-1ra, HNA2 independently associated) was more intense in those who had poor 28-day outcomes (ACLF, death) than those who did not experience these outcomes. Conclusions: Although AD-patients exhibit distinct profiles of systemic inflammation depending on their clinical phenotypes, all these patients have only partial activation of systemic inflammation. However, those with the most extended baseline systemic inflammation had the highest the risk of ACLF development and death