Surface temperatures and their influence on the permafrost thermal regime in high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard

Permafrost degradation in steep rock walls and associated slope destabilization have been studied increasingly in recent years. While most studies focus on mountainous and sub-Arctic regions, the occurring thermo-mechanical processes also play an important role in the high Arctic. A more precise understanding is required to assess the risk of natural hazards enhanced by permafrost warming in high-Arctic rock walls. This study presents one of the first comprehensive datasets of rock surface temperature measurements of steep rock walls in the high Arctic, comparing coastal and near-coastal settings. We applied the surface energy balance model CryoGrid 3 for evaluation, including adjusted radiative forcing to account for vertical rock walls. Our measurements comprise 4 years of rock surface temperature data from summer 2016 to summer 2020. Mean annual rock surface temperatures ranged from −0.6 in a coastal rock wall in 2017/18 to −4.3 ∘C in a near-coastal rock wall in 2019/20. Our measurements and model results indicate that rock surface temperatures at coastal cliffs are up to 1.5 ∘C higher than at near-coastal rock walls when the fjord is ice-free in winter, resulting from additional energy input due to higher air temperatures at the coast and radiative warming by relatively warm seawater. An ice layer on the fjord counteracts this effect, leading to similar rock surface temperatures to those in near-coastal settings. Our results include a simulated surface energy balance with shortwave radiation as the dominant energy source during spring and summer with net average seasonal values of up to 100 W m−2 and longwave radiation being the main energy loss with net seasonal averages between 16 and 39 W m−2. While sensible heat fluxes can both warm and cool the surface, latent heat fluxes are mostly insignificant. Simulations for future climate conditions result in a warming of rock surface temperatures and a deepening of active layer thickness for both coastal and near-coastal rock walls. Our field data present a unique dataset of rock surface temperatures in steep high-Arctic rock walls, while our model can contribute towards the understanding of factors influencing coastal and near-coastal settings and the associated surface energy balance

Lateral thermokarst patterns in permafrost peat plateaus in northern Norway

Subarctic peatlands underlain by permafrost contain significant amounts of organic carbon. Our ability to quantify the evolution of such permafrost landscapes in numerical models is critical for providing robust predictions of the environmental and climatic changes to come. Yet, the accuracy of large-scale predictions has so far been hampered by small-scale physical processes that create a high spatial variability of thermal surface conditions, affecting the ground thermal regime and thus permafrost degradation patterns. In this regard, a better understanding of the small-scale interplay between microtopography and lateral fluxes of heat, water and snow can be achieved by field monitoring and process-based numerical modeling. Here, we quantify the topographic changes of the Šuoššjávri peat plateau (northern Norway) over a three-year period using drone-based repeat high-resolution photogrammetry. Our results show thermokarst degradation is concentrated on the edges of the plateau, representing 77 % of observed subsidence, while most of the inner plateau surface exhibits no detectable subsidence. Based on detailed investigation of eight zones of the plateau edge, we show that this edge degradation corresponds to an annual volume change of 0.13±0.07 m3 yr−1 per meter of retreating edge (orthogonal to the retreat direction). Using the CryoGrid3 land surface model, we show that these degradation patterns can be reproduced in a modeling framework that implements lateral redistribution of snow, subsurface water and heat, as well as ground subsidence due to melting of excess ice. By performing a sensitivity test for snow depths on the plateau under steady-state climate forcing, we obtain a threshold behavior for the start of edge degradation. Small snow depth variations (from 0 to 30 cm) result in highly different degradation behavior, from stability to fast degradation. For plateau snow depths in the range of field measurements, the simulated annual volume changes are broadly in agreement with the results of the drone survey. As snow depths are clearly correlated with ground surface temperatures, our results indicate that the approach can potentially be used to simulate climate-driven dynamics of edge degradation observed at our study site and other peat plateaus worldwide. Thus, the model approach represents a first step towards simulating climate-driven landscape development through thermokarst in permafrost peatlands

Explicitly modelling microtopography in permafrost landscapes in a land surface model (JULES vn5.4_microtopography)

Microtopography can be a key driver of heterogeneity in the ground thermal and hydrological regime of permafrost landscapes. In turn, this heterogeneity can influence plant communities, methane fluxes, and the initiation of abrupt thaw processes. Here we have implemented a two-tile representation of microtopography in JULES (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator), where tiles are representative of repeating patterns of elevation difference. Tiles are coupled by lateral flows of water, heat, and redistribution of snow, and a surface water store is added to represent ponding. Simulations are performed of two Siberian polygon sites, (Samoylov and Kytalyk) and two Scandinavian palsa sites (Stordalen and Iškoras). The model represents the observed differences between greater snow depth in hollows vs. raised areas well. The model also improves soil moisture for hollows vs. the non-tiled configuration (“standard JULES”) though the raised tile remains drier than observed. The modelled differences in snow depths and soil moisture between tiles result in the lower tile soil temperatures being warmer for palsa sites, as in reality. However, when comparing the soil temperatures for July at 20 cm depth, the difference in temperature between tiles, or “temperature splitting”, is smaller than observed (3.2 vs. 5.5 ∘C). Polygons display small (0.2 ∘C) to zero temperature splitting, in agreement with observations. Consequently, methane fluxes are near identical (+0 % to 9 %) to those for standard JULES for polygons, although they can be greater than standard JULES for palsa sites (+10 % to 49 %). Through a sensitivity analysis we quantify the relative importance of model processes with respect to soil moisture and temperatures, identifying which parameters result in the greatest uncertainty in modelled temperature. Varying the palsa elevation between 0.5 and 3 m has little effect on modelled soil temperatures, showing that using only two tiles can still be a valid representation of sites with a range of palsa elevations. Mire saturation is heavily dependent on landscape-scale drainage. Lateral conductive fluxes, while small, reduce the temperature splitting by ∼ 1 ∘C and correspond to the order of observed lateral degradation rates in peat plateau regions, indicating possible application in an area-based thaw model

Northern Hemisphere permafrost map based on TTOP modelling for 2000–2016 at 1 km2 scale

Permafrost is a key element of the cryosphere and an essential climate variable in the Global Climate Observing System. There is no remote-sensing method available to reliably monitor the permafrost thermal state. To estimate permafrost distribution at a hemispheric scale, we employ an equilibrium state model for the temperature at the top of the permafrost (TTOP model) for the 2000–2016 period, driven by remotely- sensed land surface temperatures, down-scaled ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data, tundra wetness classes and landcover map from the ESA Landcover Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project. Subgrid variability of ground temperatures due to snow and landcover variability is represented in the model using subpixel statistics. The results are validated against borehole measurements and reviewed regionally. The accuracy of the modelled mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at the top of the permafrost is ±2 °C when compared to permafrost borehole data. The modelled permafrost area (MAGT 0) is around 21 × 106 km2 (22% of exposed land area), which is approximately 2 × 106 km2 less than estimated previously. Detailed comparisons at a regional scale show that the model performs well in sparsely vegetated tundra regions and mountains, but is less accurate in densely vegetated boreal spruce and larch forests

Permafrost is warming at a global scale

Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged

Modelling conductive heat flow between steep rock walls and talus slopes–thermal processes and geomorphological implications

The thermal regime in steep and snow-free rock slopes is crucial for understanding rock slope stability, frost weathering and the associated material production in steep mountain areas. In this study, we model heat flow and explore the hypothesis that strong thermal gradients are maintained in transition areas between snow-free rock walls and snow-covered talus slopes. The results of our 2D heat transfer modeling experiments indicate that, under the assumption of snow-free steep rock walls, conductive heat flow can cool the upper parts of an adjacent talus slope with low conductivity and induce strong thermal gradients in the solid bedrock. The modeled conductive cooling effect may be relevant for both frost weathering processes and subsequent geomorphological implications and for the thermal regime of complex surface material in rock wall-talus systems in alpine areas

The influence of radiative forcing on permafrost temperatures in Arctic rock walls

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