Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon : Prediction of onset and withdrawal

Funded by LINC project. Grant Number: 289447 EC's Marie Curie ITN program. Grant Number: FP7-PEOPLE-2011-ITN RFBR. Grant Number: 16-07-01186 Government of Russian Federation. Grant Number: 14.Z50.31.0033Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Seeds of phase transition to thermoacoustic instability

Tackling the problem of emissions is at the forefront of scientific research today. While industrial engines designed to operate in stable regimes produce emissions, attempts to operate them at 'greener' conditions often fail due to a dangerous phenomenon known as thermoacoustic instability. Hazardous high amplitude periodic oscillations during thermoacoustic instability lead to the failure of these engines in power plants, aircraft, and rockets. To prevent this catastrophe in the first place, identifying the onset of thermoacoustic instability is required. However, detecting the onset is a major obstacle preventing further progress due to spatiotemporal variability in the reacting field. Here, we show how to overcome this obstacle by discovering a critical condition in certain zones of the combustor, which indicates the onset of thermoacoustic instability. In particular, we reveal the critical value of the local heat release rate that allows us to distinguish stable operating regimes from hazardous operations. We refer to these zones as seeds of the phase transition because they show the earliest manifestation of the impending instability. The increase in correlations in the heat release rate between these zones indicates the transition from a chaotic state to a periodic state. Remarkably, we found that observations at the seeds of the phase transition enable us to predict when the onset occurs, well before the emergence of dangerous large-amplitude periodic acoustic pressure oscillations. Our results contribute to the operation of combustors in more environment-friendly conditions. The presented approach is applicable to other systems exhibiting such phase transitions.Indian Institute of Technology Madrashttps://doi.org/10.13039/501100003845Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety and the International Climate Initiative GermanyDepartment of Science and Technology IndiaRussian Foundation for Basic Researchhttps://doi.org/10.13039/501100002261Peer Reviewe

Inhibiting the onset of thermoacoustic instability through targeted control of critical regions

This experimental study investigates the dynamical transition from stable operation to thermoacoustic instability in a turbulent bluff-body stabilised dump combustor. We conduct experiments to acquire acoustic pressure and local heat release rate fluctuations and use them to characterise this transition as we decrease the equivalence ratio towards a fuel-lean setting. More importantly, we observe a significant increase in local heat release rate fluctuations at critical locations well before thermoacoustic instability occurs. One of these critical locations is the stagnation zone in front of the bluff-body. By strategically positioning slots (perforations) on the bluff-body, we ensure the reduction of the growth of local heat release rate fluctuations at the stagnation zone near the bluff-body well before the onset of thermoacoustic instability. We show that this reduction in local heat release rate fluctuations inhibits the transition to thermoacoustic instability. We find that modified configurations of the bluff-body that do not quench the local heat release rate fluctuations at the stagnation zone result in the transition to thermoacoustic instability. We also reveal that an effective suppression strategy based on the growth of local heat release rate fluctuations requires an optimisation of the slots' area-ratio for a given bluff-body position. Further, the suppression strategy also depends on the spatial distribution of perforations on the bluff-body. Notably, an inappropriate distribution of the slots, which does not quench the local heat release rate fluctuations at the stagnation zone but creates new critical regions, may even result in a dramatic increase in the amplitudes of pressure oscillations

Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena

Network theory, as emerging from complex systems science, can provide critical predictive power for mitigating the global warming crisis and other societal challenges. Here we discuss the main differences of this approach to classical numerical modeling and highlight several cases where the network approach substantially improved the prediction of high-impact phenomena: 1) El Niño events, 2) droughts in the central Amazon, 3) extreme rainfall in the eastern Central Andes, 4) the Indian summer monsoon, and 5) extreme stratospheric polar vortex states that influence the occurrence of wintertime cold spells in northern Eurasia. In this perspective, we argue that network-based approaches can gainfully complement numerical modeling