Funded by LINC project. Grant Number: 289447 EC's Marie Curie ITN program. Grant Number: FP7-PEOPLE-2011-ITN RFBR. Grant Number: 16-07-01186 Government of Russian Federation. Grant Number: 14.Z50.31.0033Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Alessandri

Bodo Bookhagen

Boos

Byshev

Cannon

Choudhury

Elena Surovyatkina

Fasullo

Flatau

Gadgil

Goswami

Hlinka

Holloway

Jürgen Kurths

Kalnay

Kéfi

Lenton

Ludescher

Meehl

Prasad

Rajagopalan

Saha

Schewe

Singh

Soman

Stolbova

Subash

Surovyatkina

Syed

Taniguchi

Uppala

Veronika Stolbova

Wang

Geophysical Research Letters

English

Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for the life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions-tipping elements of the monsoon-and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset 2 weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation

Stolbova, Veronika

Surovyatkina, Elena

Bookhagen, Bodo (Prof. Dr.)

Kurths, Jürgen (Prof. Dr.)

publish.UP (Univ. Potsdam)

Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and
withdrawal

Crossref

Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal

Funded by LINC project. Grant Number: 289447 EC's Marie Curie ITN program. Grant Number: FP7-PEOPLE-2011-ITN RFBR. Grant Number: 16-07-01186 Government of Russian Federation. Grant Number: 14.Z50.31.0033Peer reviewe

Bookhagen, Bodo

Kurths, Juergen

Aberdeen University Research

Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon : Prediction of onset and withdrawal

https://aura.abdn.ac.uk/bitstream/2164/9132/1/Stolbova_et_al_2016_Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf

Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon : Prediction of onset and withdrawal

Abstract

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publish.UP (Univ. Potsdam)

Crossref

Aberdeen University Research