A Test for the Presence of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market With an Application to the Bank of Canada

We propose a general non-linear simultaneous equations framework for the econometric analysis of models of intervention in foreign exchange markets by central banks in response to deviations of exchange rates from target levels. We consider the instrumental variables estimation of possibly non-linear response functions and tests of intervention when the functional form may be non-linear, asymmetric, and may contain unknown shape parameters. The methodology applies techniques developed for testing in the presence of nuisance parameters unidentified under a null hypothesis to a nonlinear simultaneous equations model. We report the results of an empirical analysis of activity of the Bank of Canada, for the period from 1953-2006, with regard to the Canada-U.S. exchange rate, with changes in foreign reserves proxying for intervention activity. Nous proposons un cadre de référence général pour les équations non-linéaires simultanées s’appliquant à l’analyse économétrique de modèles d’intervention des banques centrales dans les marchés des devises étrangères, en réponse aux écarts des taux de change par rapport aux niveaux cibles. Nous prenons en considération l’estimation des variables instrumentales liées aux fonctions de réponses possiblement non-linéaires et aux tests en matière d’interventions lorsque la forme fonctionnelle peut être non linéaire, asymétrique et lorsqu’elle peut contenir des paramètres de forme inconnue. La méthodologie applique, à un modèle à équations simultanées non linéaires, des techniques élaborées pour effectuer des tests en présence de paramètres de nuisance non identifiés sous une hypothèse nulle. Nous présentons les résultats d’une analyse empirique des activités de la Banque du Canada, durant la période de 1953-2006, relativement au taux de change Canada-É.-U., les variations des réserves étrangères permettant les activités d’intervention.unidentified nuisance parameter, nonlinear simultaneous equations, foreign exchange reserves, policy reaction functions, paramètre de nuisance non identifié, équations simultanées non linéaires, réserves de change, fonctions de réaction de la politique

Dimension Reduction and Model Averaging for Estimation of Artists’ Age-Valuation Profiles

In hedonic regression models of the valuation of works of art, the age at which an artist produces a particular work, or an indicator variable for periods in his or her artistic career, is often found to have highly significant predictive value. Most existing results are based on regressions that pool large groups of painters. Although it is of interest to estimate such regressions for individual artists, the sample sizes are often inadequate for a model that would also include the large number of other relevant variables. We address this problem of inadequate degrees of freedom in individual artist regressions by using two statistical methods (model averaging and dimension reduction) to incorporate information from a potentially large number of predictor variables, allowing us to work with relatively small samples. We find that individual age-valuation profiles can differ substantially from general pooled profiles, suggesting that methods that are more responsive to the unique features of individual artists may provide better predictions of art valuations at auction. In hedonic regression models of the valuation of works of art, the age at which an artist produces a particular work, or an indicator variable for periods in his or her artistic career, is often found to have highly significant predictive value. Most existing results are based on regressions that pool large groups of painters. Although it is of interest to estimate such regressions for individual artists, the sample sizes are often inadequate for a model that would also include the large number of other relevant variables. We address this problem of inadequate degrees of freedom in individual artist regressions by using two statistical methods (model averaging and dimension reduction) to incorporate information from a potentially large number of predictor variables, allowing us to work with relatively small samples. We find that individual age-valuation profiles can differ substantially from general pooled profiles, suggesting that methods that are more responsive to the unique features of individual artists may provide better predictions of art valuations at auction.Dimension reduction, factor-augmented model, model averaging, réduction de dimension, modèle de facteur augmenté, moyenne de modèles

Dynamic Price Dependence of Canadian and International Art Markets: An Empirical Analysis

Although the market for Canadian paintings is now of substantial magnitude, with several works having recently sold for well over a million dollars, it remains true that with very few exceptions, the works of Canadian painters are bought and sold only in Canada and held only by Canadian collectors. This market can thus be viewed as almost exclusively local, and it is therefore not clear that there should be any linkage between price movements for Canadian art and those for the mainstream international market in old master, impressionist, and modern art. This paper investigates the presence and nature of such time series dependence econometrically, both in terms of long term trends as reflected in the co-integrating relationship between Canadian and the international market, and in terms of short-run co-movements as represented in correlations. The possibility that the local market "follows" the international one is also considered through an analysis of Granger-Causality. For Canadian art prices we use a new hedonic index that has been computed using an updated version of the data set of Hodgson and Vorkink (2004), while for the international prices, we use an index provided by Mei and Moses.Alternative investments, Economics of art markets, Market for paintings, Time series analysis, CAPM,

The Impossibility of a Perfectly Competitive Labor Market

Using the institutional theory of transaction cost, I demonstrate that the assumptions of the competitive labor market model are internally contradictory and lead to the conclusion that on purely theoretical grounds a perfectly competitive labor market is a logical impossibility. By extension, the familiar diagram of wage determination by supply and demand is also a logical impossibility and the neoclassical labor demand curve is not a well-defined construct. The reason is that the perfectly competitive market model presumes zero transaction cost and with zero transaction cost all labor is hired as independent contractors, implying multi-person firms, the employment relationship, and labor market disappear. With positive transaction cost, on the other hand, employment contracts are incomplete and the labor supply curve to the firm is upward sloping, again causing the labor demand curve to be ill-defined. As a result, theory suggests that wage rates are always and everywhere an amalgam of an administered and bargained price. Working Paper 06-0

Implementation, mechanisms of impact and key contextual factors involved in outcomes of the Modification of Diet, Exercise and Lifestyle (MODEL) randomised controlled trial in Australian adults: Protocol for a mixed-method process evaluation

Introduction The Modification of Diet, Exercise and Lifestyle (MODEL) study aims to examine the impact of providing visualisation and pictorial representation of advanced structural vascular disease (abdominal aortic calcification), on ‘healthful’ improvements to diet and lifestyle. This paper reports the protocol for the process evaluation for the MODEL study. Methods and analysis The overall aim of the process evaluation is to understand the processes that took place during participation in the MODEL study trial and which elements were effective or ineffective for influencing ‘healthful’ behavioural change, and possible ways of improvement to inform wider implementation strategies. A mixed-method approach will be employed with the use of structured questionnaires and semistructured in-depth interviews. All 200 participants enrolled in the trial will undertake the quantitative component of the study and maximum variation sampling will be used to select a subsample for the qualitative component. The sample size for the qualitative component will be determined based on analytical saturation. Interviews will be digitally recorded and transcribed verbatim. Qualitative data will be analysed thematically and reported according to the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research (COREQ) guidelines. Ethics and dissemination The MODEL study process evaluation has received approval from Edith Cowan University Human Research Ethics Committee (Project Number: 20513 HODGSON). Written informed consent will be obtained from all participants before they are included in the study. The study results will be shared with the individuals and institutions associated with this study as well as academic audiences through peer-reviewed publication and probable presentation at conferences

Modification of diet, exercise and lifestyle (MODEL) study: a randomised controlled trial protocol

Introduction: Most cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related events could be prevented or substantially delayed with improved diet and lifestyle. Providing information on structural vascular disease may improve CVD risk factor management, but its impact on lifestyle change remains unclear. This study aims to determine whether providing visualisation and pictorial representation of structural vascular disease (abdominal aortic calcification (AAC)) can result in healthful diet and lifestyle change. Methods and analysis: This study, including men and women aged 60–80 years, is a 12-week, two-arm, multisite randomised controlled trial. At baseline, all participants will have AAC assessed from a lateral spine image captured using a bone densitometer. Participants will then be randomised to receive their AAC results at baseline (intervention group) or a usual care control group that will receive their results at 12 weeks. All participants will receive information about routinely assessed CVD risk factors and standardised (video) diet and lifestyle advice with three simple goals: (1) increase fruit and vegetable (FV) intake by at least one serve per day, (2) improve other aspects of the diet and (3) reduce sitting time and increase physical activity. Clinical assessments will be performed at baseline and 12 weeks. Outcomes: The primary outcome is a change in serum carotenoid concentrations as an objective measure of FV intake. The study design, procedures and treatment of data will adhere to Standard Protocol Items for Randomized Trials guidelines. Ethics and dissemination: Ethics approval for this study has been granted by the Edith Cowan University and the Deakin University Human Research Ethics Committees (Project Numbers: 20513 HODGSON and 2019-220, respectively). Results of this study will be published in peer-reviewed academic journals and presented in scientific meetings and conferences. Information regarding consent, confidentiality, access to data, ancillary and post-trial care and dissemination policy has been disclosed in the participant information form

LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie

Evaluation of polygenic risk scores for breast and ovarian cancer risk prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]-positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2 x 10(53)). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2 x 10(-20)). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management