How do we understand and visualize uncertainty?

Geophysicists are often concerned with reconstructing subsurface properties using observations collected at or near the surface. For example, in seismic migration, we attempt to reconstruct subsurface geometry from surface seismic recordings, and in potential field inversion, observations are used to map electrical conductivity or density variations in geologic layers. The procedure of inferring information from indirect observations is called an inverse problem by mathematicians, and such problems are common in many areas of the physical sciences. The inverse problem of inferring the subsurface using surface observations has a corresponding forward problem, which consists of determining the data that would be recorded for a given subsurface configuration. In the seismic case, forward modeling involves a method for calculating a synthetic seismogram, for gravity data it consists of a computer code to compute gravity fields from an assumed subsurface density model. Note that forward modeling often involves assumptions about the appropriate physical relationship between unknowns (at depth) and observations on the surface, and all attempts to solve the problem at hand are limited by the accuracy of those assumptions. In the broadest sense then, exploration geophysicists have been engaged in inversion since the dawn of the profession and indeed algorithms often applied in processing centers can all be viewed as procedures to invert geophysical data

3-D synthetic modelling and observations of anisotropy effects on SS precursors: implications for mantle deformation in the transition zone

The Earth's mantle transition zone (MTZ) plays a key role in the thermal and compositional interactions between the upper and lower mantle. Seismic anisotropy provides useful information about mantle deformation and dynamics across the MTZ. However, seismic anisotropy in the MTZ is difficult to constrain from surface wave or shear wave splitting measurements. Here, we investigate the sensitivity to anisotropy of a body wave method, SS precursors, through 3-D synthetic modelling and apply it to real data. Our study shows that the SS precursors can distinguish the anisotropy originating from three depths: shallow upper mantle (80–220 km), deep upper mantle above 410 km, and MTZ (410–660 km). Synthetic resolution tests indicate that SS precursors can resolve ≥3 per cent azimuthal anisotropy where data have an average signal-to-noise ratio (SNR = 7) and sufficient azimuthal coverage. To investigate regional sensitivity, we apply the stacking and inversion methods to two densely sampled areas: the Japan subduction zone and a central Pacific region around the Hawaiian hotspot. We find evidence for significant VS anisotropy (15.3 ± 9.2 per cent) with a trench-perpendicular fast direction (93° ± 5°) in the MTZ near the Japan subduction zone. We attribute the azimuthal anisotropy to the grain-scale shape-preferred orientation of basaltic materials induced by the shear deformation within the subducting slab beneath NE China. In the central Pacific study region, there is a non-detection of MTZ anisotropy, although modelling suggests the data coverage should allow us to resolve at least 3 per cent anisotropy. Therefore, the Hawaiian mantle plume has not produced detectable azimuthal anisotropy in the MTZ

Thermal nature and resolution of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary under the Pacific from surface waves

It is strongly debated whether the interface between the lithosphere and underlying asthenosphere is a temperature-dependent rheological transition, as expected in a thermal convection system, or additionally affected by the presence of melts and/or fluids. Previous surface wave studies of Pacific oceanic lithosphere have found that shear velocity and azimuthal anisotropy vary with seafloor crustal age as expected for a thermal control; however radial anisotropy does not. Various thermomechanical models have been proposed to explain this disparate behaviour. Nonetheless, it is unclear how robust the surface wave constraints are, and this is what we test in this study. We apply a Bayesian model space search approach to three published Pacific surface wave dispersion data sets, two phase-velocity and one combined phase- and group-velocity set, and determine various proxies for the depth of the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) and their uncertainties based on the velocity and radial anisotropy model distributions obtained. In their overall character and pattern with age, the velocity models from different data sets are consistent with each other, although they differ in their values of LAB depths. Uncertainties are substantial (as much as 20 km on LAB depths) and the addition of group-velocity data does not reduce them. Radial anisotropy structures differ even in pattern and display no obvious age dependence. However, given the uncertainties, we cannot exclude that radial anisotropy, azimuthal anisotropy and velocity models actually reflect compatible, age-dependent, LAB depth estimates. The velocity LAB trends are most like those expected for half-space cooling, because velocity differences persist at old ages, below the depth of common plate cooling models. Any direct signature of sub-ridge melt would be too small-scale to be resolved by these data. However, the velocity-increasing effects of dehydration and depletion due to melting below the ridge could explain why LAB proxy depths tend to a minimum of ∼60 km below young ocean floor

The Far Side of Mars: Two Distant Marsquakes Detected by InSight

For over three Earth years the Marsquake Service has been analyzing the data sent back from the Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure¿the seismometer placed on the surface of Mars by NASA¿s InSight lander. Although by October 2021, the Mars seismic catalog included 951 events, until recently all these events have been assessed as lying within a radius of 100° of InSight. Here we report two distant events that occurred within days of each other, located on the far side of Mars, giving us our first glimpse into Mars¿ core shadow zone. The first event, recorded on 25 August 2021 (InSight sol 976), shows clear polarized arrivals that we interpret to be PP and SS phases at low frequencies and locates to Valles Marineris, 146° ± 7° from InSight. The second event, occurring on 18 September 2021 (sol 1000), has significantly more broadband energy with emergent PP and SS arrivals, and a weak phase arriving before PP that we interpret as Pdiff¿. Considering uncertain pick times and poorly constrained travel times for Pdiff¿, we estimate this event is at a distance between 107° and 147° from InSight. With magnitudes of MMaw 4.2 and 4.1, respectively, these are the largest seismic events recorded so far on Mars.Anna C. Horleston, Jessica C. E. Irving,and Nicholas A. Teanby are funded by the UKSA under Grant Numbers ST/R002096/1, ST/W002523/1, and ST/W002515/1.Nikolaj L. Dahmen, Cecilia Duran, Géraldine Zenhäusern, andSimon C. Stähler would like to acknowledge support from Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) through the ETH+ funding scheme (ETH+02 19-1: “Planet Mars”). The French coauthors acknowledge the funding support provided by CNES and the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-19-CE31-0008-08 MAGIS) for SEIS operation and SEIS Science analysis. Alexander E. Stott acknowledges the French Space Agency CNES and ANR (ANR-19-CE31-0008-08). Caroline Beghein and Jiaqi Li were supported by NASA InSight Participating Scientist Program (PSP) Grant Number 80NSSC18K1679. This article is InSight Contribution Number 236

Internal deformation of the subducted Nazca slab inferred from seismic anisotropy

Within oceanic lithosphere a fossilized fabric is often preserved originating from the time of plate formation. Such fabric is thought to form at the mid-ocean ridge when olivine crystals align with the direction of plate spreading1, 2. It is unclear, however, whether this fossil fabric is preserved within slabs during subduction or overprinted by subduction-induced deformation. The alignment of olivine crystals, such as within fossil fabrics, can generate anisotropy that is sensed by passing seismic waves. Seismic anisotropy is therefore a useful tool for investigating the dynamics of subduction zones, but it has so far proved difficult to observe the anisotropic properties of the subducted slab itself. Here we analyse seismic anisotropy in the subducted Nazca slab beneath Peru and find that the fast direction of seismic wave propagation aligns with the contours of the slab. We use numerical modelling to simulate the olivine fabric created at the mid-ocean ridge, but find it is inconsistent with our observations of seismic anisotropy in the subducted Nazca slab. Instead we find that an orientation of the olivine crystal fast axes aligned parallel to the strike of the slab provides the best fit, consistent with along-strike extension induced by flattening of the slab during subduction (A. Kumar et al., manuscript in preparation). We conclude that the fossil fabric has been overprinted during subduction and that the Nazca slab must therefore be sufficiently weak to undergo internal deformation

Surface waves and crustal structure on Mars

We detected surface waves from two meteorite impacts on Mars. By measuring group velocity dispersion along the impact-lander path, we obtained a direct constraint on crustal structure away from the InSight lander. The crust north of the equatorial dichotomy had a shear wave velocity of approximately 3.2 kilometers per second in the 5- to 30-kilometer depth range, with little depth variation. This implies a higher crustal density than inferred beneath the lander, suggesting either compositional differences or reduced porosity in the volcanic areas traversed by the surface waves. The lower velocities and the crustal layering observed beneath the landing site down to a 10-kilometer depth are not a global feature. Structural variations revealed by surface waves hold implications for models of the formation and thickness of the martian crust.D.K., S.C., D.G., J.C., C.D., A. K., S.C.S., N.D., and G.Z. were supported by the ETH+ funding scheme (ETH+02 19-1: “Planet Mars”). Marsquake Service operations at ETH Zürich were supported by ETH Research grant ETH-06 17-02. N.C.S. and V.L. were supported by NASA PSP grant no. 80NSSC18K1628. Q.H. and E.B. are funded by NASA grant 80NSSC18K1680. C.B. and J.L. were supported by NASA InSight PSP grant no. 80NSSC18K1679. S.D.K. was supported by NASA InSight PSP grant no. 80NSSC18K1623. P.L., E.B., M.D., H.S., E.S., M.W., Z.X., T.W., M.P., R.F.G. were supported by CNES and the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-19-CE31-0008-08 MAGIS) for SEIS operation and SEIS Science analysis. A.H., C.C. and W.T.P. were supported by the UKSA under grant nos. ST/R002096/1, ST/ W002523/1 and ST/V00638X/1. Numerical computations of McMC Approach 2 were performed on the S-CAPAD/DANTE platform (IPGP, France) and using the HPC resources of IDRIS under the allocation A0110413017 made by GENCI. A.H. was supported by the UKSA under grant nos. ST/R002096/1 and ST/W002523/1. F.N. was supported by InSight PSP 80NSSC18K1627. I.J.D. was supported by NASA InSight PSP grant no. 80NSSC20K0971. L.V.P. was funded by NASANNN12AA01C with subcontract JPL-1515835. The research was carried out in part by W.B.B., M.G. and M.P.P. at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004)Peer reviewe

The Lunar Geophysical Network Mission

The National Academy’s current Planetary Decadal Survey (NRC, 2011) prioritizes a future Lunar Geophysical Network (LGN) mission to gather new information that will permit us to better determine how the overall composition and structure of the Moon inform us about the initial differentiation and subsequent evolution of terrestrial planets

Constraints on the shallow elastic and anelastic structure of Mars from InSight seismic data

Mars’s seismic activity and noise have been monitored since January 2019 by the seismometer of the InSight (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) lander. At night, Mars is extremely quiet; seismic noise is about 500 times lower than Earth’s microseismic noise at periods between 4 s and 30 s. The recorded seismic noise increases during the day due to ground deformations induced by convective atmospheric vortices and ground-transferred wind-generated lander noise. Here we constrain properties of the crust beneath InSight, using signals from atmospheric vortices and from the hammering of InSight’s Heat Flow and Physical Properties (HP3) instrument, as well as the three largest Marsquakes detected as of September 2019. From receiver function analysis, we infer that the uppermost 8–11 km of the crust is highly altered and/ or fractured. We measure the crustal diffusivity and intrinsic attenuation using multiscattering analysis and find that seismic attenuation is about three times larger than on the Moon, which suggests that the crust contains small amounts of volatiles

Initial results from the InSight mission on Mars

NASA’s InSight (Interior exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) mission landed in Elysium Planitia on Mars on 26 November 2018. It aims to determine the interior structure, composition and thermal state of Mars, as well as constrain present-day seismicity and impact cratering rates. Such information is key to understanding the differentiation and subsequent thermal evolution of Mars, and thus the forces that shape the planet’s surface geology and volatile processes. Here we report an overview of the first ten months of geophysical observations by InSight. As of 30 September 2019, 174 seismic events have been recorded by the lander’s seismometer, including over 20 events of moment magnitude Mw = 3–4. The detections thus far are consistent with tectonic origins, with no impact-induced seismicity yet observed, and indi- cate a seismically active planet. An assessment of these detections suggests that the frequency of global seismic events below approximately Mw = 3 is similar to that of terrestrial intraplate seismic activity, but there are fewer larger quakes; no quakes exceeding Mw = 4 have been observed. The lander’s other instruments—two cameras, atmospheric pressure, temperature and wind sensors, a magnetometer and a radiometer—have yielded much more than the intended supporting data for seismometer noise characterization: magnetic field measurements indicate a local magnetic field that is ten-times stronger than orbital estimates and meteorological measurements reveal a more dynamic atmosphere than expected, hosting baroclinic and gravity waves and convective vortices. With the mission due to last for an entire Martian year or longer, these results will be built on by further measurements by the InSight lander