Trends in Breast Cancer Mortality in Sweden before and after Implementation of Mammography Screening

BACKGROUND: Incidence-based mortality modelling comparing the risk of breast cancer death in screened and unscreened women in nine Swedish counties has suggested a 39% risk reduction in women 40 to 69 years old after introduction of mammography screening in the 1980s and 1990s. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated changes in breast cancer mortality in the same nine Swedish counties using a model approach based on official Swedish breast cancer mortality statistics, robust to effects of over-diagnosis and treatment changes. Using mortality data from the NordCan database from 1974 until 2003, we estimated the change in breast cancer mortality before and after introduction of mammography screening in at least the 13 years that followed screening start. RESULTS: Breast mortality decreased by 16% (95% CI: 9 to 22%) in women 40 to 69, and by 11% (95% CI: 2 to 20%) in women 40 to 79 years of age. DISCUSSION: Without individual data it is impossible to completely separate the effects of improved treatment and health service organisation from that of screening, which would bias our results in favour of screening. There will also be some contamination of post-screening mortality from breast cancer diagnosed prior to screening, beyond our attempts to adjust for delayed benefit. This would bias against screening. However, our estimates from publicly available data suggest considerably lower benefits than estimates based on comparison of screened versus non-screened women.Peer reviewe

Serum Midkine, estimated glomerular filtration rate and chronic kidney disease-related events in elderly women: Perth Longitudinal Study of Aging Women

© 2020, The Author(s). Midkine (MDK), a heparin-binding growth factor cytokine, is involved in the pathogenesis of kidney diseases by augmenting leukocyte trafficking and activation. Animal models and small case control studies have implicated MDK as a pathological biomarker in chronic kidney diseases (CKD), however this is yet to be confirmed in prospective human studies. In a prospective study of 499 elderly, predominantly Caucasian women aged over 70 years the association between serum MDK collected in 1998, and renal function change and the risk of CKD-related hospitalisations and deaths at 5 and 14.5 years, respectively, was examined. Baseline serum MDK was not associated with 5-year change in estimated glomerular filtration rate using the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine and cystatin C equation (Standardised β = − 0.09, 95% confidence interval − 3.76–0.48, p = 0.129), 5-year rapid decline in renal function (odds ratio = 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.46–2.02, p = 0.927) or the risk of 14.5-year CKD-related hospitalisations and deaths (hazard ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval.66–2.46, p = 0.470) before or after adjusting for major risk factors. In conclusion, in this cohort of elderly women with normal or mildly impaired renal function, serum MDK was not associated with renal function change or future CKD-related hospitalisations and deaths, suggesting that MDK may not be an early biomarker for progression of CKD

Climate‐driven increases in storm frequency simplify kelp forest food webs

Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the annual frequency and severity of extreme weather events during the next century. Here we show that increases in the annual frequency of severe storms lead to a decrease in the diversity and complexity of food webs of giant kelp forests, one of the most productive habitats on Earth. We demonstrate this by linking natural variation in storms with measured changes in kelp forest food web structure in the Santa Barbara Channel using structural equation modeling (SEM). We then match predictions from statistical models to results from a multiyear kelp removal experiment designed to simulate frequent large storms. Both SEM models and experiments agree: if large storms remain at their current annual frequency (roughly one major kelp‐removing storm every 3.5 years), periodic storms help maintain the complexity of kelp forest food webs. However, if large storms increase in annual frequency and begin to occur year after year, kelp forest food webs become less diverse and complex as species go locally extinct. The loss of complexity occurs primarily due to decreases in the diversity and complexity of higher trophic levels. Our findings demonstrate that shifts in climate‐driven disturbances that affect foundation species are likely to have impacts that cascade through entire ecosystems.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/86837/1/j.1365-2486.2011.02409.x.pd

Cancer risk in 680 000 people exposed to computed tomography scans in childhood or adolescence: Data linkage study of 11 million Australians

Objective To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans. Design Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia. Cohort members 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records. Main outcome Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals. Results 60 674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680 211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P<0.001). We saw a dose-response relation, and the IRR increased by 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) for each additional CT scan. The IRR was greater after exposure at younger ages (P<0.001 for trend). At 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15 or more years since first exposure, IRRs were 1.35 (1.25 to 1.45), 1.25 (1.17 to 1.34), 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22), and 1.24 (1.14 to 1.34), respectively. The IRR increased significantly for many types of solid cancer (digestive organs, melanoma, soft tissue, female genital, urinary tract, brain, and thyroid); leukaemia, myelodysplasia, and some other lymphoid cancers. There was an excess of 608 cancers in people exposed to CT scans (147 brain, 356 other solid, 48 leukaemia or myelodysplasia, and 57 other lymphoid). The absolute excess incidence rate for all cancers combined was 9.38 per 100 000 person years at risk, as of 31 December 2007. The average effective radiation dose per scan was estimated as 4.5 mSv. Conclusions The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose

Opium use and mortality in Golestan Cohort Study: prospective cohort study of 50 000 adults in Iran

Objectives To investigate the association between opium use and subsequent risk of death