Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Molecular and functional characterization of ABRAXAS and PALB2 genes in hereditary breast cancer predisposition

Abstract Hereditary mutations in DNA damage response (DDR) genes often lead to genomic instability and ultimately tumor development. However, the molecular mechanism of how these DDR deficiencies promote genomic instability and malignancy is not well understood. Thus, the specific aim of this thesis is to identify the functional and molecular framework behind the elevated breast cancer risk observed in heterozygous PALB2 and ABRAXAS mutation carriers. The heterozygous germline alteration in PALB2 (c.1592delT) causes a haploinsufficiency phenotype in the mutation carrier cells. Due to PALB2 haploinsufficiency, elevated Cdk activity and consequently aberrant DNA replication/damage response was observed in the PALB2 mutation carrier cells. Excessive origin firing that is indicative of replication stress was also seen in the PALB2 mutation carrier cells. In addition to replication stress, PALB2 mutation carrier cells also experience G2/M checkpoint maintenance defects. The increased malignancy risk in females associated with heterozygosity for the Finnish PALB2 founder mutation is likely to be due to aberrant DNA replication, elevated genomic instability and multiple different cell cycle checkpoint defects. The heterozygous germline alteration in ABRAXAS (c.1082G>A) causes a dominant-negative phenotype in the mutation carrier cells. Decreased BRCA1 protein levels as well as reduced nuclear localization and foci formation of BRCA1 and CtIP was observed in the ABRAXAS mutation carrier cells. This causes disturbances in basal BRCA1-A complex localization, which is reflected by a restraint in error-prone DNA double-strand break (DSB) repair pathway usage, attenuated DNA damage response, deregulated G2/M checkpoint control and apoptosis. Most importantly, mutation carrier cells display a change in their transcriptional profile, which we attribute to the reduced nuclear levels of BRCA1. Thus, the Finnish ABRAXAS founder mutation acts in a dominant-negative manner on BRCA1 to promote genome destabilization in the heterozygous carrier cells.Tiivistelmä Perinnölliset muutokset DNA-vauriovasteen geeneissä johtavat usein genomin epävakauteen ja lopulta syövän kehittymiseen. Molekyylitason mekanismeja, joilla vauriovasteen vajaatoiminta ajaa genomin epävakautta ja syöpää, ei kuitenkaan ymmärretä kunnolla. Tämän väitöskirjan tavoitteena on tunnistaa solutoiminnan ja molekyylitason vaikuttajat heterotsygoottisten PALB2- ja ABRAXAS-geenimuutosten kantajien kohonneen rintasyöpäriskin taustalla. Heterotsygoottinen ituradan suomalainen perustajamuutos PALB2-geenissä (c.1592delT) aiheuttaa haploinsuffisienssin kantajahenkilöiden soluissa. PALB2:n haploinsuffisienssin seurauksena kantajasoluissa havaittiin kohonnutta Cdk-proteiinin aktiivisuutta ja siitä johtuvaa kiihtynyttä DNA:n kahdentumista. PALB2-mutaatiota kantavissa soluissa nähtiin myös liiallista replikaation aloituskohtien käyttöä, mikä viittaa replikaatiostressiin. Replikaatiostressin lisäksi PALB2-mutaation kantajasoluilla havaittiin vaikeuksia ylläpitää solusyklin G2/M-tarkastuspisteen toimintaa. Näiden solutoiminnan poikkeavuuksien takia heterotsygoottisen PALB2 c.1592delT -mutaation kantajilla todettiin genomin epävakautta ja kohonnut syöpäriski. Heterotsygoottinen ituradan mutaatio ABRAXAS-geenissä (c.1082G>A) aiheuttaa dominantti-negatiivisen fenotyypin mutaation kantajasoluissa. ABRAXAS-mutaatiota kantavissa soluissa havaittiin BRCA1-proteiinitasojen laskua sekä BRCA1- ja CtIP-proteiinien vähentynyttä lokalisaatiota tumaan ja DNA-vauriopaikoille. Tämä aiheuttaa häiriöitä BRCA1-A-kompleksin paikallistumisessa, mikä johtaa häiriöihin virhealttiiden DNA-kaksoisjuoste¬katkoksien korjausmekanismien käytössä, DNA-vauriovasteessa, G2/M-tarkastus-pisteen säätelyssä ja ohjelmoidussa solukuolemassa. Tärkeimpänä löydöksenä havaittiin mutaation kantajasoluissa muuttunut transkriptioprofiili, joka johtunee BRCA1-proteiinitasojen laskusta tumassa. Näin ollen suomalainen ABRAXAS-perustajamutaatio toimii dominantti-negatiivisena BRCA1:n suhteen, aiheuttaen genomin epävakautta heterotsygoottisissa kantajasoluissa