Presentation of the EURODELTA III intercomparison exercise – evaluation of the chemistry transport models' performance on criteria pollutants and joint analysis with meteorology

Abstract. The EURODELTA III exercise has facilitated a comprehensive intercomparison and evaluation of chemistry transport model performances. Participating models performed calculations for four 1-month periods in different seasons in the years 2006 to 2009, allowing the influence of different meteorological conditions on model performances to be evaluated. The exercise was performed with strict requirements for the input data, with few exceptions. As a consequence, most of differences in the outputs will be attributed to the differences in model formulations of chemical and physical processes. The models were evaluated mainly for background rural stations in Europe. The performance was assessed in terms of bias, root mean square error and correlation with respect to the concentrations of air pollutants (NO2, O3, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5), as well as key meteorological variables. Though most of meteorological parameters were prescribed, some variables like the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and the vertical diffusion coefficient were derived in the model preprocessors and can partly explain the spread in model results. In general, the daytime PBL height is underestimated by all models. The largest variability of predicted PBL is observed over the ocean and seas. For ozone, this study shows the importance of proper boundary conditions for accurate model calculations and then on the regime of the gas and particle chemistry. The models show similar and quite good performance for nitrogen dioxide, whereas they struggle to accurately reproduce measured sulfur dioxide concentrations (for which the agreement with observations is the poorest). In general, the models provide a close-to-observations map of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) concentrations over Europe rather with correlations in the range 0.4–0.7 and a systematic underestimation reaching −10 µg m−3 for PM10. The highest concentrations are much more underestimated, particularly in wintertime. Further evaluation of the mean diurnal cycles of PM reveals a general model tendency to overestimate the effect of the PBL height rise on PM levels in the morning, while the intensity of afternoon chemistry leads formation of secondary species to be underestimated. This results in larger modelled PM diurnal variations than the observations for all seasons. The models tend to be too sensitive to the daily variation of the PBL. All in all, in most cases model performances are more influenced by the model setup than the season. The good representation of temporal evolution of wind speed is the most responsible for models' skillfulness in reproducing the daily variability of pollutant concentrations (e.g. the development of peak episodes), while the reconstruction of the PBL diurnal cycle seems to play a larger role in driving the corresponding pollutant diurnal cycle and hence determines the presence of systematic positive and negative biases detectable on daily basis

On the impact of the vertical resolution on chemistry-transport modelling

International audienceThis paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the modelling of air pollutant concentrations in the surface layer with the WRF/CHIMERE models. The influence of the vertical resolution near the surface is studied. The simulations are carried out over two periods (winter and summer 2009) over the Paris area. Three model configurations are used: (i) the CHIMERE mesh used for the PREVAIR forecast (8 levels from 995 to 500 hPa), (ii) a mesh refined along the whole vertical axis (20 levels from 995 to 500 hPa) and (iii) a mesh with a refinement near the surface (9 levels from 999 to 500 hPa). The results are discussed in terms of differences on surface concentrations between the reference case and an improved resolution. Adding a point close to the surface appears to be important mainly for high nocturnal concentrations in very stable boundary layers. Refining the vertical mesh, with 20 levels instead of 8, enables to model new structures in the well mixed boundary layer, but with a moderate impact at the surface. It is shown that the different model configurations lead to changes of a few mu g m(-3) at most, showing that the vertical mesh is not the most sensitive factor in chemistry-transport modelling when results are compared to surface measurements. This finding validates the fact that a simplified vertical mesh is suitable for air quality forecasting even if an improved vertical resolution close to the ground is important to take into account the urban increment

Evolution de la surveillance des PM10 en France : épisodes de pollution par les particules au printemps 2007

National audienceSince the 1st January 2007, PM10 monitoring network in France has evolved, in order to account for volatile fraction of PM10. This evolution permitted the observation of high peaks of PM10 during spring 2007. Concentrations during these peaks would have been largely underestimated with measuring techniques used before 2007. A study, coupling chemical and modelling approach of the phenomenon has been launched by LCSQA (Laboratoire Central de Surveillance de la Qualité de l'Air), in collaboration with several AASQA (Association Agrée de Surveillance de la Qualité de l'Air, air monitoring network). Chemical analysis of PM10 show that ammonium nitrate is the component at the origin of the observed peaks. The French forecasting system for air quality Prév'Air (www.prevair.org) largely underestimated the peaks, and especially ammonium nitrate concentrations. A sensibility study shows that emissions due to agricultural practices seem to be at the origin of the peaks. The necessity of reconsidering these emissions as a function of meteorological conditions (especially the temperature) is highlightedDepuis le 1er janvier 2007, le dispositif de surveillance des PM10 en France a évolué, de façon à prendre en compte la fraction volatile des particules. Une conséquence de cette évolution est l'observation, au printemps 2007, d'importants pics de particules : ces pics auraient été largement sous-évalués avec les techniques précédemment utilisées. Le LCSQA (Laboratoire Central de Surveillance de la Qualité de l'Air), en collaboration avec plusieurs AASQA (Association Agrée de Surveillance de la Qualité de l'Air) a entrepris un travail de compréhension de l'origine des pics, couplant mesures de terrain et modélisation Les résultats expérimentaux montrent que, pour la plupart des pics étudiés, la fraction volatile est généralement supérieure à la fraction non-volatile. Des analyses chimiques ont permis de mettre en évidence la présence prépondérante du nitrate d'ammonium dans la plupart des cas, expliquant ponctuellement les larges fractions volatiles mesurées. Sur le plan de la modélisation, le modèle CHIMERE utilisé dans le système Prév'Air (www.prevair.org) a sous-estimé ces fortes concentrations, et en particulier les concentrations en nitrate d'ammonium. Les émissions d'espèces azotées lors des épandages massifs d'engrais à cette période de l'année, mal prises en compte, pourraient en grande partie expliquer les résultats. La nécessité de reconsidérer dans le modèle la dépendance de ces émissions aux conditions météorologiques (notamment les températures élevées qui favorisent l'évaporation) a été mise en évidenc

Simulation numérique de la condensation / évaporation et de la coagulation des nanoparticules

National audienceAware of the risks related to nanoparticles (particles which present at least one dimension less than 100 nanometers), INERIS decided in 2009 to create a research program in order to develop a model that would be able to simulate the dynamic of nanoparticles in both confined and free atmospheres. The distinction with usual models is that we need to follow the evolution of the number of particles together with their the mass : in order to simulate the evolution of nanoparticles, the number is much more relevant. A comparative review of algorithms currently used in air quality models and new algorithms adapted to nanoparticles is presented. This first study addresses condensational growth, evaporation and coagulation. The model is to be integrated in chemistry-transport models (CHIMERE) and in CFD models (code_Saturne EdF).Conscient des risques liés aux nanoparticules (particules dont au moins une des dimensions est inférieure à 100 nanomètres), l'INERIS(1) a engagé en 2009 un programme de recherche en collaboration avec le CEREA(2) afin de développer un modèle capable de simuler les transformations des nanoparticules dans les ambiances intérieures (espaces confinés) comme dans l'atmosphère. En effet, les nanoparticules sont notamment susceptibles de coaguler, de grossir par condensation, et de se déposer sur les parois; ce qui modifie leur granulométrie. Une des problématiques liée à la modélisation des nanoparticules est que leur nombre est déterminant devant leur masse, tout au contraire des particules étudiées jusqu'à présent (particules fines ou grossières dont une des dimensions est supérieure à 100 nanomètre). Différents schémas numériques ont été développés pour simuler la condensation/évaporation d'une population de particules, et un noyau de coagulation issu d'algorithmes usuels a été intégré. L'inter-comparaison de ces schémas met en évidence que certains sont plus adaptés que d'autres pour les nanoparticules. Les algorithmes qui sont appropriés pour toutes les tailles de particules sont présentés. A terme, ce modèle de dynamique des nanoparticules a vocation à être intégré dans des modèles de dispersion atmosphérique (CHIMERE) et des modèles CFD (code_Saturne EdF

Impact of Surface Roughness and Soil Texture on Mineral Dust Emission Fluxes Modeling

Dust production models (DPM) used to estimate vertical fluxes of mineral dust aerosols over arid regions need accurate data on soil and surface properties. The Laboratoire Inter-Universitaire des Systemes Atmospheriques (LISA) data set was developed for Northern Africa, the Middle East, and East Asia. This regional data set was built through dedicated field campaigns and include, among others, the aerodynamic roughness length, the smooth roughness length of the erodible fraction of the surface, and the dry (undisturbed) soil size distribution. Recently, satellite-derived roughness length and high-resolution soil texture data sets at the global scale have emerged and provide the opportunity for the use of advanced schemes in global models. This paper analyzes the behavior of the ERS satellite-derived global roughness length and the State Soil Geographic data base-Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (STATSGO-FAO) soil texture data set (based on wet techniques) using an advanced DPM in comparison to the LISA data set over Northern Africa and the Middle East. We explore the sensitivity of the drag partition scheme (a critical component of the DPM) and of the dust vertical fluxes (intensity and spatial patterns) to the roughness length and soil texture data sets. We also compare the use of the drag partition scheme to a widely used preferential source approach in global models. Idealized experiments with prescribed wind speeds show that the ERS and STATSGO-FAO data sets provide realistic spatial patterns of dust emission and friction velocity thresholds in the region. Finally, we evaluate a dust transport model for the period of March to July 2011 with observed aerosol optical depths from Aerosol Robotic Network sites. Results show that ERS and STATSGO-FAO provide realistic simulations in the region

Construction d'un indicateur d'exposition spatialisé de l'environnement : application au Nord-Pas de Calais

L'utilisation couplée de modèle multimédia et de Système d'Information Géographique (SIG) s'est largement développée ces dernières années pour étudier l'exposition des populations aux substances chimiques. Les décideurs sont confrontés depuis quelques années au besoin de développement d'outils nécessaires à la prise en compte des risques sanitaires. Dans ce cadre, le projet SIGFRIED 1 (Système d'Information Géographique, Facteurs de RIsques Environnementaux et Décès par cancer) vise à construire un indicateur spatialisé de l'exposition de la population française aux polluants environnementaux. Pour cela un modèle multimédia d'exposition est utilisé pour le calcul des doses d'exposition de populations cibles liées à l'ingestion de produits d'alimentation, d'eau de consommation et à l'inhalation de contaminants atmosphériques. L'indicateur intègre dans un SIG des bases de données géoréférencées environnementales (eau, air, sol), comportementales et démographiques. Le modèle utilise les équations de transfert de polluant de la source à l'individu. L'étude a pour objectif principal d'identifier les zones géographiques potentiellement responsables d'une surexposition et leurs déterminants (types de polluant, voies d'exposition, classes de population à risque) par l'analyse des variations de l'indicateur environnemental. Dans cet article, sont présentés la méthodologie générale et les résultats de modélisation de l'indicateur d'exposition aux Elément Traces Métallique (ETM) sur la région Nord - Pas de Calais. La modélisation a permis de détecter des zones de surexposition potentielle localisées sur des agglomérations ou des sites de grandes sources de pollution bien identifiés. Les résultats permettent également de caractériser les déterminants de l'exposition (parts locales et ubiquitaires, voies d'exposition et polluants). Cependant l'utilisation de données de formats et de sources différentes, non spécifiquement adaptées pour ce type d'étude, génère de nombreuses incertitudes sur l'ensemble de la chaîne de calcul qui seront étudiées au cours d'une prochaine étud

Eurodelta multi-model simulated and observed particulate matter trends in Europe in the period of 1990–2010

The Eurodelta-Trends (EDT) multi-model experiment, aimed at assessing the efficiency of emission mitigation measures in improving air quality in Europe during 1990–2010, was designed to answer a series of questions regarding European pollution trends; i.e. were there significant trends detected by observations? Do the models manage to reproduce observed trends? How close is the agreement between the models and how large are the deviations from observations? In this paper, we address these issues with respect to particulate matter (PM) pollution. An in-depth trend analysis has been performed for PM10 and PM2.5 for the period of 2000–2010, based on results from six chemical transport models and observational data from the EMEP (Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe) monitoring network. Given harmonization of set-up and main input data, the differences in model results should mainly result from differences in the process formulations within the models themselves, and the spread in the model-simulated trends could be regarded as an indicator for modelling uncertainty. The model ensemble simulations indicate overall decreasing trends in PM10 and PM2.5 from 2000 to 2010, with the total reductions of annual mean concentrations by between 2 and 5 (7 for PM10) µg m−3 (or between 10 % and 30 %) across most of Europe (by 0.5–2 µg m−3 in Fennoscandia, the north-west of Russia and eastern Europe) during the studied period. Compared to PM2.5, relative PM10 trends are weaker due to large inter-annual variability of natural coarse PM within the former. The changes in the concentrations of PM individual components are in general consistent with emission reductions. There is reasonable agreement in PM trends estimated by the individual models, with the inter-model variability below 30 %–40 % over most of Europe, increasing to 50 %–60 % in the northern and eastern parts of the EDT domain. Averaged over measurement sites (26 for PM10 and 13 for PM2.5), the mean ensemble-simulated trends are −0.24 and −0.22 µg m−3 yr−1 for PM10 and PM2.5, which are somewhat weaker than the observed trends of −0.35 and −0.40 µg m−3 yr−1 respectively, partly due to model underestimation of PM concentrations. The correspondence is better in relative PM10 and PM2.5 trends, which are −1.7 % yr−1 and −2.0 % yr−1 from the model ensemble and −2.1 % yr−1 and −2.9 % yr−1 from the observations respectively. The observations identify significant trends (at the 95 % confidence level) for PM10 at 56 % of the sites and for PM2.5 at 36 % of the sites, which is somewhat less that the fractions of significant modelled trends. Further, we find somewhat smaller spatial variability of modelled PM trends with respect to the observed ones across Europe and also within individual countries. The strongest decreasing PM trends and the largest number of sites with significant trends are found for the summer season, according to both the model ensemble and observations. The winter PM trends are very weak and mostly insignificant. Important reasons for that are the very modest reductions and even increases in the emissions of primary PM from residential heating in winter. It should be kept in mind that all findings regarding modelled versus observed PM trends are limited to the regions where the sites are located. The analysis reveals considerable variability of the role of the individual aerosols in PM10 trends across European countries. The multi-model simulations, supported by available observations, point to decreases in concentrations playing an overall dominant role. Also, we see relatively large contributions of the trends of and to PM10 decreasing trends in Germany, Denmark, Poland and the Po Valley, while the reductions of primary PM emissions appear to be a dominant factor in bringing down PM10 in France, Norway, Portugal, Greece and parts of the UK and Russia. Further discussions are given with respect to emission uncertainties (including the implications of not accounting for forest fires and natural mineral dust by some of the models) and the effect of inter-annual meteorological variability on the trend analysis.The Ineris coordination of the EURODELTA-Trends exercise has been supported by the French Ministry in charge of Ecology in the context of the Task Force on Measurement and Modelling of the EMEP program of the LRTAP Convention. The CHIMERE simulations were performed using the TGCC supercomputers under GENCI computing allocation. The work of EMEP MSC-W has been supported by the EMEP Trust Fund under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN ECE). Funding for the MATCH participation was jointly divided between Nordforsk through the research programme Nordic Welfare (grant no. 75007), the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency through the SCAC research programme, and the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, with the funding organisations AKA (contract no. 326328), ANR (grant no. ANR-18-EBI4-007), BMBF (KFZ; grant no. 01LC1810A), FORMAS (contract nos. 2018-02434, 2018-02436, 2018-02437, and 2018-02438) and MICINN (APCIN; grant no. PCI2018-093149). Giancarlo Ciarelli has been supported by ADEME and the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant no. P2EZP2_175166). MINNI participation in this project was supported by the “Cooperation Agreement for support to international Conventions, Protocols and related negotiations on air pollution issues”, funded by the Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea. Financial support for the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) has been provided by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany (BMBF) and the Ministry for Science, Research and Culture of the State of Brandenburg (MWFK). The work of CIEMAT has been supported by the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge (MITERD).Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 23 autors/es: Svetlana Tsyro, Wenche Aas, Augustin Colette, Camilla Andersson, Bertrand Bessagnet, Giancarlo Ciarelli, Florian Couvidat, Kees Cuvelier, Astrid Manders, Kathleen Mar, Mihaela Mircea, Noelia Oter, Maria-Teresa Pay, Valentin Raffort, Yelva Roustan, Mark R. Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Hilde Fagerli, Peter Wind, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Massimo D'Isidoro, and Mario Adani"Postprint (published version

Lidar signal simulation for the evaluation of aerosols in chemistry transport models

International audienceWe present an adaptable tool, the OPTSIM (OPTical properties SIMulation) software, for the simulation of optical properties and lidar attenuated backscattered profiles (beta') from aerosol concentrations calculated by chemistry transport models (CTM). It was developed to model both Level 1 observations and Level 2 aerosol lidar retrievals in order to compare model results to measurements: the level 2 enables to estimate the main properties of aerosols plume structures, but may be limited due to specific assumptions. The level 1, originally developed for this tool, gives access to more information about aerosols properties (beta') requiring, at the same time, less hypothesis on aerosols types. In addition to an evaluation of the aerosol loading and optical properties, active remote sensing allows the analysis of aerosols' vertical structures. An academic case study for two different species (black carbon and dust) is presented and shows the consistency of the simulator. Illustrations are then given through the analysis of dust events in the Mediterranean region during the summer 2007. These are based on simulations by the CHIMERE regional CTM and observations from the CALIOP space-based lidar, and highlight the potential of this approach to evaluate the concentration, size and vertical structure of the aerosol plumes

Pollution atmosphérique et climat

National audienceClimate change and air quality are closely related: through the policy measures implemented to mitigate these major environmental threats but also through the geophysical processes that drive them. We designed, developed and implemented a comprehensive regional air quality and climate modelling system to investigate future air quality in Europe taking into account the combined pressure of future climate change and long range transport. Using the prospective scenarios of the last generation of pathways for both climate change (emissions of well mixed greenhouse gases) and air pollutants, we can provide a quantitative view into the possible future air quality in Europe. We find that ozone pollution will decrease substantially under the most stringent scenario but the efforts of the air quality legislation will be adversely compensated by the penalty of global warming and long range transport for the business as usual scenario. For particulate matter, the projected reduction of emissions efficiently reduces exposure levels.Changement climatique et qualité de l'air sont intimement liés : à travers les politiques de gestion mises en oeuvre pour atténuer ces menaces environnementales majeures mais aussi à travers les processus géophysiques qui les gouvernent. Afin de pouvoir étudier l'évolution de la pollution atmosphérique en Europe en prenant en compte l'influence conjointe du changement climatique et du transport à longue distance, nous avons conçu, développé et mis en oeuvre un système complet de modélisation régionale du climat et de la qualité de l'air. En utilisant des scénarios prospectifs de dernière génération relatifs au changement climatique (émissions de gaz à effet de serre) mais aussi pour les polluants à courte durée de vie, nous avons pu proposer une quantification de l'évolution future de la qualité de l'air en Europe. D'après le scénario le plus volontariste, la pollution liée à l'ozone sera réduite de manière substantielle mais les efforts positifs induits par les politiques de gestion de la qualité de l'air seront contrebalancés par le changement climatique et le transport à longue distance pour le scénario statu-quo. En ce qui concerne les particules, les réductions d'émissions futures réduiront de manière efficace les niveaux d'exposition

The PREV'AIR system, an operational system for large scale air quality forecasts over Europe : applications at the local scale

International audienceSince Summer 2003, the PREV'AIR system has been delivering through the Internet daily air quality forecasts over Europe. This is the visible part of a wider collaborative project - the PREV'AIR project - launched by the French Ministry for Ecology and Sustainable Development (MEDD), aiming at: (1) Providing technical support on atmospheric pollution management in Europe, in the framework of negotiations on trans-boundary air pollution. (2) Providing large scale national air quality information based on numerical simulations and observations. The PREV'AIR system is a complementary monitoring tool with respect to the local information delivered by the French qualified associations in charge of regional air quality monitoring (AASQA). PREV'AIR relies on a chain of numerical tools: air quality simulation models, modules ensuring the provision of meteorological and air quality input data to these models, modules enabling the extraction and use of the numerical data computed by the system. The outputs of the PREV'AIR system (secondary pollutants forecasts and maps) are archived to build up a large scale air quality simulation data base over Europe