Committee Machines for Hourly Water Demand Forecasting in Water Supply Systems

[EN] Prediction models have become essential for the improvement of decision-making processes in public management and, particularly, for water supply utilities. Accurate estimation often needs to solve multimeasurement, mixed-mode, and space-time problems, typical of many engineering applications. As a result, accurate estimation of real world variables is still one of the major problems in mathematical approximation. Several individual techniques have shown very good estimation abilities. However, none of them are free from drawbacks. This paper faces the challenge of creating accurate water demand predictive models at urban scale by using so-called committee machines, which are ensemble frameworks of single machine learning models. The proposal is able to combine models of varied nature. Specifically, this paper analyzes combinations of such techniques as multilayer perceptrons, support vector machines, extreme learning machines, random forests, adaptive neural fuzzy inference systems, and the group method for data handling. Analyses are checked on two water demand datasets from Franca (Brazil). As an ensemble tool, the combined response of a committee machine outperforms any single constituent model.Ambrosio, JK.; Brentan, BM.; Herrera Fernández, AM.; Luvizotto, E.; Ribeiro, L.; Izquierdo Sebastián, J. (2019). Committee Machines for Hourly Water Demand Forecasting in Water Supply Systems. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2019:1-11. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/97654681112019Montalvo, I., Izquierdo, J., Pérez-García, R., & Herrera, M. (2010). Improved performance of PSO with self-adaptive parameters for computing the optimal design of Water Supply Systems. 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Towards a Sensor-based System for Assessing and Monitoring Powered Mobility Skills in Children

Children with motor or cognitive impairments who require powered mobility at a very young age will face social and environmental barriers that make learning how to use the mobility device a challenging task. We present a first approach of a framework to help therapists and service providers to assess and monitor how children use their mobility device, which results from the combination of a plug and play inertial sensor, and the support of the Assessment Learning tool (ALP) from Nilsson and Durkin. We performed a formative study on four able-bodied children using an electric wheelchair. Results suggest it is possible to measure children's driving skills with this approach, and that results can be mapped to the validated ALP tool. We present the limitations of our study and the direction of future work

Towards a Wearable Wheelchair Monitor: Classification of push style based on inertial sensors at multiple upper limb locations

Measuring manual wheelchair activity by using wearable sensors is becoming increasingly common for rehabilitation and monitoring purposes. Until recently most research has focused on the identification of activities of daily living or on counting the number of strokes. However, how a person pushes their wheelchair - their stroke pattern - is an important descriptor of the wheelchair user's quality of movement. This paper evaluates the capability of inertial sensors located at different upper limb locations plus the wheel of the wheelchair, to classify two types of stroke pattern for manual wheelchairs: semicircle and arc. Data was collected using bespoke inertial sensors with a wheelchair fixed to a treadmill. Classification was completed with a linear SVM algorithm, and classification performance was computed for each sensor location in the upper limb, and then in combination with wheel sensor. For single sensors, forearm location had the highest accuracy (96%) followed by hand (93%) and arm (90%). For combined sensor location with wheel, best accuracy came in combination with forearm. These results set the direction towards a wearable wheelchair monitor that can measure the quality as well as the quantity of movement and which offers multiple on-body locations for increased usability

Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling

The effect of climate change on wildfires constitutes a serious concern in fire-prone regions with complex fire behavior such as the Mediterranean. The coarse resolution of future climate projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs) prevents their direct use in local climate change studies. Statistical downscaling techniques bridge this gap using empirical models that link the synoptic-scale variables from GCMs to the local variables of interest (using e.g. data from meteorological stations). In this paper, we investigate the application of statistical downscaling methods in the context of wildfire research, focusing in the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), one of the most popular fire danger indices. We target on the Iberian Peninsula and Greece and use historical observations of the FWI meteorological drivers (temperature, humidity, wind and precipitation) in several local stations. In particular, we analyze the performance of the analog method, which is a convenient first choice for this problem since it guarantees physical and spatial consistency of the downscaled variables, regardless of their different statistical properties. First we validate the method in perfect model conditions using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Overall, not all variables are downscaled with the same accuracy, with the poorest results (with spatially averaged daily correlations below 0.5) obtained for wind, followed by precipitation. Consequently, those FWI components mostly relying on those parameters exhibit the poorest results. However, those deficiencies are compensated in the resulting FWI values due to the overall high performance of temperature and relative humidity. Then, we check the suitability of the method to downscale control projections (20C3M scenario) from a single GCM (the ECHAM5 model) and compute the downscaled future fire danger projections for the transient A1B scenario. In order to detect problems due to non-stationarities related to climate change, we compare the results with those obtained with a Regional Climate Model (RCM) driven by the same GCM. Although both statistical and dynamical projections exhibit a similar pattern of risk increment in the first half of the 21st century, they diverge during the second half of the century. As a conclusion, we advocate caution in the use of projections for this last period, regardless of the regionalization technique applied.We are grateful to the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and to the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) for providing the observational data used in this study. We would also like to thank Erik van Meijgaard from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute for making available ENSEMBLES RACMO2 climate model output verifying at 12:00 UTC and to the Max Planck Institute for providing the appropriate data for the ECHAM5 model used in this work. This work was partly funded by European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreements 243888 (FUME Project) and from Spanish Ministry MICINN under grant EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869). We thank tw

Extragalactic Radio Continuum Surveys and the Transformation of Radio Astronomy

Next-generation radio surveys are about to transform radio astronomy by discovering and studying tens of millions of previously unknown radio sources. These surveys will provide new insights to understand the evolution of galaxies, measuring the evolution of the cosmic star formation rate, and rivalling traditional techniques in the measurement of fundamental cosmological parameters. By observing a new volume of observational parameter space, they are also likely to discover unexpected new phenomena. This review traces the evolution of extragalactic radio continuum surveys from the earliest days of radio astronomy to the present, and identifies the challenges that must be overcome to achieve this transformational change.Comment: To be published in Nature Astronomy 18 Sept 201

Potential of essential fatty acid deficiency with extremely low fat diet in lipoprotein lipase deficiency during pregnancy: A case report

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy in patients with lipoprotein lipase deficiency is associated with high risk of maternal pancreatitis and fetal death. A very low fat diet (< 10% of calories) is the primary treatment modality for the prevention of acute pancreatitis, a rare but potentially serious complication of severe hypertriglyceridemia. Since pregnancy can exacerbate hypertriglyceridemia in the genetic absence of lipoprotein lipase, a further reduction of dietary fat intake to < 1–2% of total caloric intake may be required during the pregnancy, along with the administration of a fibrate. It is uncertain if essential fatty acid deficiency will develop in the mother and fetus with this extremely low fat diet, or whether fibrates will cross the placenta and concentrate in the fetus. CASE PRESENTATION: A 23 year-old gravida 1 woman with primary lipoprotein lipase deficiency was seen at 7 weeks of gestation in the Lipid Clinic for management of severe hypertriglyceridemia that had worsened with pregnancy. While on her habitual fat intake of 10% of total calories, her pregnancy resulted in an exacerbation of the hypertriglyceridemia, which prompted further restriction of fat intake to < 2% of total calories, as well as administration of gemfibrozil at a lower than average dose. The level of gemfibrozil, as the active metabolite, in the venous and arterial fetal cord blood was within the expected therapeutic range for adults. The clinical signs and a biomarker of essential fatty acid deficiency, namely the ratio of 20:3 [n-9] to 20:4 [n-6] fatty acids, were closely monitored throughout her pregnancy. Despite her extremely low fat diet, the levels of essential fatty acids measured in the mother and in the fetal blood immediately postpartum were normal. Normal essential fatty acid levels may have been achieved by the topical application of sunflower oil. CONCLUSIONS: An extremely low fat diet in combination with topical sunflower oil and gemfibrozil administration was safely implemented in pregnancy associated with the severe hypertriglyceridemia of lipoprotein lipase deficiency

Rapid Identification of Malaria Vaccine Candidates Based on α-Helical Coiled Coil Protein Motif

To identify malaria antigens for vaccine development, we selected α-helical coiled coil domains of proteins predicted to be present in the parasite erythrocytic stage. The corresponding synthetic peptides are expected to mimic structurally “native” epitopes. Indeed the 95 chemically synthesized peptides were all specifically recognized by human immune sera, though at various prevalence. Peptide specific antibodies were obtained both by affinity-purification from malaria immune sera and by immunization of mice. These antibodies did not show significant cross reactions, i.e., they were specific for the original peptide, reacted with native parasite proteins in infected erythrocytes and several were active in inhibiting in vitro parasite growth. Circular dichroism studies indicated that the selected peptides assumed partial or high α-helical content. Thus, we demonstrate that the bioinformatics/chemical synthesis approach described here can lead to the rapid identification of molecules which target biologically active antibodies, thus identifying suitable vaccine candidates. This strategy can be, in principle, extended to vaccine discovery in a wide range of other pathogens

Progesterone Receptor Activates Msx2 Expression by Downregulating TNAP/Akp2 and Activating the Bmp Pathway in EpH4 Mouse Mammary Epithelial Cells

Previously we demonstrated that EpH4 mouse mammary epithelial cells induced the homeobox transcription factor Msx2 either when transfected with the progesterone receptor (PR) or when treated with Bmp2/4. Msx2 upregulation was unaffected by Wnt inhibitors s-FRP or Dkk1, but was inhibited by the Bmp antagonist Noggin. We therefore hypothesized that PR signaling to Msx2 acts through the Bmp receptor pathway. Herein, we confirm that transcripts for Alk2/ActR1A, a non-canonical BmpR Type I, are upregulated in mammary epithelial cells overexpressing PR (EpH4-PR). Increased phosphorylation of Smads 1,5, 8, known substrates for Alk2 and other BmpR Type I proteins, was observed as was their translocation to the nucleus in EpH4-PR cells. Analysis also showed that Tissue Non-Specific Alkaline Phosphatase (TNAP/Akp2) was also found to be downregulated in EpH4-PR cells. When an Akp2 promoter-reporter construct containing a ½PRE site was transfected into EpH4-PR cells, its expression was downregulated. Moreover, siRNA mediated knockdown of Akp2 increased both Alk2 and Msx2 expression. Collectively these data suggest that PR inhibition of Akp2 results in increased Alk2 activity, increased phosphorylation of Smads 1,5,8, and ultimately upregulation of Msx2. These studies imply that re-activation of the Akp2 gene could be helpful in downregulating aberrant Msx2 expression in PR+ breast cancers

The stress of starvation: glucocorticoid restraint of beta cell development

Developmental insults during gestation, such as under-nutrition, are known to restrict the number of beta cells that form in the fetal pancreas and are maintained in adulthood, leading to increased risk of type 2 diabetes. There are now substantial data indicating that glucocorticoids mediate this effect of under-nutrition on beta cell mass and that even at physiological levels they restrain fetal beta cell development in utero. There are emerging clues that this occurs downstream of endocrine commitment by neurogenin 3 but prior to terminal beta cell differentiation. Deciphering the precise mechanism will be important as it might unveil new pathways by which to manipulate beta cell mass that could be exploited as novel therapies for patients with diabetes

On the projection of future fire danger conditions with various instantaneous/mean-daily data sources

Fire danger indices are descriptors of fire potential in a large area, and combine a few variables that affect the initiation, spread and control of forest fires. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is one of the most widely used fire danger indices in the world, and it is built upon instantaneous values of temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity at noon, together with 24 hourly accumulated precipitation. However, the scarcity of appropriate data has motivated the use of daily mean values as surrogates of the instantaneous ones in several studies that aimed to assess the impact of global warming on fire. In this paper we test the sensitivity of FWI values to both instantaneous and daily mean values, analyzing their effect on mean seasonal fire danger (seasonal severity rating, SSR) and extreme fire danger conditions (90th percentile, FWI90, and FWI>30, FOT30), with a special focus on its influence in climate change impact studies. To this aim, we analyzed reanalysis and regional climate model (RCM) simulations, and compared the resulting instantaneous and daily mean versions both in the present climate and in a future scenario. In particular, we were interested in determining the effect of these datasets on the projected changes obtained for the mean and extreme seasonal fire danger conditions in future climate scenarios, as given by a RCM. Overall, our results warn against the use of daily mean data for the computation of present and future fire danger conditions. Daily mean data lead to systematic negative biases of fire danger calculations. Although the mean seasonal fire danger indices might be corrected to compensate for this bias, fire danger extremes (FWI90 and specially FOT30) cannot be reliably transformed to accommodate the spatial pattern and magnitude of their respective instantaneous versions, leading to inconsistent results when projected into the future. As a result, we advocate caution when using daily mean data and strongly recommend the application of the standard definition for its calculation as closely as possible. Threshold-dependent indices derived from FWI are not reliably represented by the daily mean version and thus can neither be applied for the estimation of future fire danger season length and severity, nor for the estimation of future extreme events.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 243888 (FUME Project). J.F. acknowledges nancial support from the Spanish R&D&I programme through grant CGL2010-22158-C02 (CORWES project). The ESCENA project (200800050084265) of the Spanish \Strategic action on energy and climate change" provided the WRF RCM simulation used in this study. We acknowledge three anonymous referees for their useful comments that helped to improve the original manuscript