Use of Temporally Validated Machine Learning Models To Predict Outcomes of Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy Using Data from the British Association of Urological Surgeons Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy Audit

\ua9 2024 European Association of Urology. Background and objective: Machine learning (ML) is a subset of artificial intelligence that uses data to build algorithms to predict specific outcomes. Few ML studies have examined percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) outcomes. Our objective was to build, streamline, temporally validate, and use ML models for prediction of PCNL outcomes (intensive care admission, postoperative infection, transfusion, adjuvant treatment, postoperative complications, visceral injury, and stone-free status at follow-up) using a comprehensive national database (British Association of Urological Surgeons PCNL). Methods: This was an ML study using data from a prospective national database. Extreme gradient boosting (XGB), deep neural network (DNN), and logistic regression (LR) models were built for each outcome of interest using complete cases only, imputed, and oversampled and imputed/oversampled data sets. All validation was performed with complete cases only. Temporal validation was performed with 2019 data only. A second round used a composite of the most important 11 variables in each model to build the final model for inclusion in the shiny application. We report statistics for prognostic accuracy. Key findings and limitations: The database contains 12 810 patients. The final variables included were age, Charlson comorbidity index, preoperative haemoglobin, Guy\u27s stone score, stone location, size of outer sheath, preoperative midstream urine result, primary puncture site, preoperative dimercapto-succinic acid scan, stone size, and image guidance (https://endourology.shinyapps.io/PCNL_Demographics/). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve was >0.6 in all cases. Conclusions and clinical implications: This is the largest ML study on PCNL outcomes to date. The models are temporally valid and therefore can be implemented in clinical practice for patient-specific risk profiling. Further work will be conducted to externally validate the models. Patient summary: We applied artificial intelligence to data for patients who underwent a keyhole surgery to remove kidney stones and developed a model to predict outcomes for this procedure. Doctors could use this tool to advise patients about their risk of complications and the outcomes they can expect after this surgery

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A review of elliptical and disc galaxy structure, and modern scaling laws

A century ago, in 1911 and 1913, Plummer and then Reynolds introduced their models to describe the radial distribution of stars in `nebulae'. This article reviews the progress since then, providing both an historical perspective and a contemporary review of the stellar structure of bulges, discs and elliptical galaxies. The quantification of galaxy nuclei, such as central mass deficits and excess nuclear light, plus the structure of dark matter halos and cD galaxy envelopes, are discussed. Issues pertaining to spiral galaxies including dust, bulge-to-disc ratios, bulgeless galaxies, bars and the identification of pseudobulges are also reviewed. An array of modern scaling relations involving sizes, luminosities, surface brightnesses and stellar concentrations are presented, many of which are shown to be curved. These 'redshift zero' relations not only quantify the behavior and nature of galaxies in the Universe today, but are the modern benchmark for evolutionary studies of galaxies, whether based on observations, N-body-simulations or semi-analytical modelling. For example, it is shown that some of the recently discovered compact elliptical galaxies at 1.5 < z < 2.5 may be the bulges of modern disc galaxies.Comment: Condensed version (due to Contract) of an invited review article to appear in "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems"(www.springer.com/astronomy/book/978-90-481-8818-5). 500+ references incl. many somewhat forgotten, pioneer papers. Original submission to Springer: 07-June-201

Antibiotic-induced release of small extracellular vesicles (exosomes) with surface-associated DNA

Recently, biological roles of extracellular vesicles (which include among others exosomes, microvesicles and apoptotic bodies) have attracted substantial attention in various fields of biomedicine. Here we investigated the impact of sustained exposure of cells to the fluoroquinolone antibiotic ciprofloxacin on the released extracellular vesicles. Ciprofloxacin is widely used in humans against bacterial infections as well as in cell cultures against Mycoplasma contamination. However, ciprofloxacin is an inducer of oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction of mammalian cells. Unexpectedly, here we found that ciprofloxacin induced the release of both DNA (mitochondrial and chromosomal sequences) and DNA-binding proteins on the exofacial surfaces of small extracellular vesicles referred to in this paper as exosomes. Furthermore, a label-free optical biosensor analysis revealed DNA-dependent binding of exosomes to fibronectin. DNA release on the surface of exosomes was not affected any further by cellular activation or apoptosis induction. Our results reveal for the first time that prolonged low-dose ciprofloxacin exposure leads to the release of DNA associated with the external surface of exosomes

Induction of apoptosis of human primary osteoclasts treated with extracts from the medicinal plant Emblica officinalis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Osteoclasts (OCs) are involved in rheumatoid arthritis and in several pathologies associated with bone loss. Recent results support the concept that some medicinal plants and derived natural products are of great interest for developing therapeutic strategies against bone disorders, including rheumatoid arthritis and osteoporosis. In this study we determined whether extracts of <it>Emblica officinalis </it>fruits display activity of possible interest for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and osteoporosis by activating programmed cell death of human primary osteoclasts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The effects of extracts from <it>Emblica officinalis </it>on differentiation and survival of human primary OCs cultures obtained from peripheral blood were determined by tartrate-acid resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP)-positivity and colorimetric MTT assay. The effects of <it>Emblica officinalis </it>extracts on induction of OCs apoptosis were studied using TUNEL and immunocytochemical analysis of FAS receptor expression. Finally, <it>in vitro </it>effects of <it>Emblica officinalis </it>extracts on NF-kB transcription factor activity were determined by gel shift experiments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Extracts of <it>Emblica officinalis </it>were able to induce programmed cell death of mature OCs, without altering, at the concentrations employed in our study, the process of osteoclastogenesis. <it>Emblica officinalis </it>increased the expression levels of Fas, a critical member of the apoptotic pathway. Gel shift experiments demonstrated that <it>Emblica officinalis </it>extracts act by interfering with NF-kB activity, a transcription factor involved in osteoclast biology. The data obtained demonstrate that <it>Emblica officinalis </it>extracts selectively compete with the binding of transcription factor NF-kB to its specific target DNA sequences. This effect might explain the observed effects of <it>Emblica officinalis </it>on the expression levels of interleukin-6, a NF-kB specific target gene.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Induction of apoptosis of osteoclasts could be an important strategy both in interfering with rheumatoid arthritis complications of the bone skeleton leading to joint destruction, and preventing and reducing osteoporosis. Accordingly, we suggest the application of <it>Emblica officinalis </it>extracts as an alternative tool for therapy applied to bone diseases.</p

Asian-Pacific consensus statement on the management of chronic hepatitis B: a 2008 update

Large amounts of new data on the natural history and treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection have become available since 2005. These include long-term follow-up studies in large community-based cohorts or asymptomatic subjects with chronic HBV infection, further studies on the role of HBV genotype/naturally occurring HBV mutations, treatment of drug resistance and new therapies. In addition, Pegylated interferon α2a, entecavir and telbivudine have been approved globally. To update HBV management guidelines, relevant new data were reviewed and assessed by experts from the region, and the significance of the reported findings were discussed and debated. The earlier “Asian-Pacific consensus statement on the management of chronic hepatitis B” was revised accordingly. The key terms used in the statement were also defined. The new guidelines include general management, special indications for liver biopsy in patients with persistently normal alanine aminotransferase, time to start or stop drug therapy, choice of drug to initiate therapy, when and how to monitor the patients during and after stopping drug therapy. Recommendations on the therapy of patients in special circumstances, including women in childbearing age, patients with antiviral drug resistance, concurrent viral infection, hepatic decompensation, patients receiving immune-suppressive medications or chemotherapy and patients in the setting of liver transplantation, are also included

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. // Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. // Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. // Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines

First measurement of the |t|-dependence of coherent J/ψ photonuclear production

The first measurement of the cross section for coherent J/ψ photoproduction as a function of |t|, the square of the momentum transferred between the incoming and outgoing target nucleus, is presented. The data were measured with the ALICE detector in ultra-peripheral Pb–Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair sNN=5.02TeV with the J/ψ produced in the central rapidity region |y|<0.8, which corresponds to the small Bjorken-x range (0.3−1.4)×10−3. The measured |t|-dependence is not described by computations based only on the Pb nuclear form factor, while the photonuclear cross section is better reproduced by models including shadowing according to the leading-twist approximation, or gluon-saturation effects from the impact-parameter dependent Balitsky–Kovchegov equation. These new results are therefore a valid tool to constrain the relevant model parameters and to investigate the transverse gluonic structure at very low Bjorken-x.publishedVersio