Application of ARCHIMEDES in Three Dimensions and to Solid Mechanics

ARCHIMEDES is a computerized learning system that has helped Syracuse University students overcome the challenges of Engineering Statics since 2009. Its success has motivated application of ARCHIMEDES to three dimensional problems and to problems in Solid Mechanics. Other learning software was investigated before seven Solid Mechanics problems were written for ARCHIMEDES. A 3D graphical interface was developed and evaluated by a field test of student volunteers. Student preferences for various features in 3D learning software were obtained. It is clear from student responses that having a 3D scene to manipulate improves visualization of the problem, mitigating the ambiguity of a textbook problem’s graphic

Low-Thrust Many-Revolution Trajectory Optimization

This dissertation presents a method for optimizing the trajectories of spacecraft that use low-thrust propulsion to maneuver through high counts of orbital revolutions. The proposed method is to discretize the trajectory and control schedule with respect to an orbit anomaly and perform the optimization with differential dynamic programming (DDP). The change of variable from time to orbit anomaly is accomplished by a Sundman transformation to the spacecraft equations of motion. Sundman transformations to each of the true, mean and eccentric anomalies are leveraged for fuel-optimal geocentric transfers up to 2000 revolutions. The approach is shown to be amenable to the inclusion of perturbations in the dynamic model, specifically aspherical gravity and third-body perturbations, and is improved upon through the use of modified equinoctial elements. An assessment of computational performance shows the importance of parallelization but that a single, multi-core processor is effective. The computational efficiency facilitates the generation of fuel versus time of flight trade-offs within a matter of hours. Many-revolution trajectories are characteristic of orbit transfers accomplished by solar electric propulsion about planetary bodies. Methods for modeling the effect of solar eclipses on the power available to the spacecraft and constraining eclipse durations are also presented. The logistic sunlight fraction is introduced as a coefficient that scales the computed power available by the fraction of sunlight available. The logistic sunlight fraction and Sundman-transformed DDP are used to analyze transfers from low-Earth orbit to geostationary orbit. The analysis includes a systematic approach to estimating the Pareto front of fuel versus time of flight.In addition to addressing many-revolution trajectories, this dissertation advances the utility of DDP in the three-body problem. Fuel-optimal transfers are presented in the Earth-Moon circular restricted three-body problem between distant retrograde orbits, between Lyapunov orbits and between Halo orbits. Those include mechanisms for varying the time of flight and the insertion point onto a target orbit. A multi-phase DDP approach enables initial guesses to be constructed from discontinuous trajectory segments. DDP is shown to leverage the system dynamics to find a heteroclinic connection between Lyapunov orbits, which is facilitated by the multi-phase approach

Chalcogen-hyperdoped germanium for short-wavelength infrared photodetection

Obtaining short-wavelength-infrared (SWIR; 1.4 μm–3.0 μm) room-temperature photodetection in a low-cost, group IV semiconductor is desirable for numerous applications. We demonstrate a non-equilibrium method for hyperdoping germanium with selenium or tellurium for dopant-mediated SWIR photodetection. By ion-implanting Se or Te into Ge wafers and restoring crystallinity with pulsed laser melting induced rapid solidification, we obtain single crystalline materials with peak Se and Te concentrations of 1020 cm−3 (104 times the solubility limits). These hyperdoped materials exhibit sub-bandgap absorption of light up to wavelengths of at least 3.0 μm, with their sub-bandgap optical absorption coefficients comparable to those of commercial SWIR photodetection materials. Although previous studies of Ge-based photodetectors have reported a sub-bandgap optoelectronic response only at low temperature, we report room-temperature sub-bandgap SWIR photodetection at wavelengths as long as 3.0 μm from rudimentary hyperdoped Ge:Se and Ge:Te photodetectors

Protocol for the development and evaluation of a tool for predicting risk of short-term adverse outcomes due to COVID-19 in the general UK population

Introduction Novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has propagated a global pandemic with significant health, economic and social costs. Emerging emergence has suggested that several factors may be associated with increased risk from severe outcomes or death from COVID-19. Clinical risk prediction tools have significant potential to generate individualised assessment of risk and may be useful for population stratification and other use cases. Methods and analysis We will use a prospective open cohort study of routinely collected data from 1205 general practices in England in the QResearch database. The primary outcome is COVID-19 mortality (in or out-of-hospital) defined as confirmed or suspected COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate, or death occurring in a person with SARS-CoV-2 infection between 24 th January and 30 th April 2020. Our primary outcome in adults is COVID-19 mortality (including out of hospital and in hospital deaths). We will also examine COVID-19 hospitalisation in children. Time-to-event models will be developed in the training data to derive separate risk equations in adults (19-100 years) for males and females for evaluation of risk of each outcome within the 3-month follow-up period (24 th January to 30 th April 2020), accounting for competing risks. Predictors considered will include age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, smoking status, alcohol intake, body mass index, pre-existing medical co-morbidities, and concurrent medication. Measures of performance (prediction errors, calibration and discrimination) will be determined in the test data for men and women separately and by ten-year age group. For children, descriptive statistics will be undertaken if there are currently too few serious events to allow development of a risk model. The final model will be externally evaluated in (a) geographically separate practices and (b) other relevant datasets as they become available. Ethics and dissemination The project has ethical approval and the results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Strengths and limitations of the study The individual-level linkage of general practice, Public Health England testing, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics death register datasets enable a robust and accurate ascertainment of outcomes The models will be trained and evaluated in population-representative datasets of millions of individuals Shielding for clinically extremely vulnerable was advised and in place during the study period, therefore risk predictions influenced by the presence of some ‘shielding’ conditions may require careful consideratio

Cost-Effective Icy Bodies Exploration using Small Satellite Missions

It has long been known that Saturn's moon Enceladus is expelling water-rich plumes into space, providing passing spacecraft with a window into what is hidden underneath its frozen crust. Recent discoveries indicate that similar events could also occur on other bodies in the solar system, such as Jupiter's moon Europa and the dwarf planet Ceres in the asteroid belt. These plumes provide a possible giant leap forward in the search for organics and assessing habitability beyond Earth, stepping stones toward the long-term goal of finding extraterrestrial life. The United States Congress recently requested mission designs to Europa, to fit within a cost cap of $1B, much less than previous mission designs' estimates. Here, innovative cost-effective small spacecraft designs for the deep-space exploration of these icy worlds, using new and emerging enabling technologies, and how to explore the outer solar system on a budget below the cost horizon of a flagship mission, are investigated. Science requirements, instruments selection, rendezvous trajectories, and spacecraft designs are some topics detailed. The mission concepts revolve around a comparably small-sized and low-cost Plume Chaser spacecraft, instrumented to characterize the vapor constituents encountered on its trajectory. In the event that a plume is not encountered, an ejecta plume can be artificially created by a companion spacecraft, the Plume Maker, on the target body at a location timed with the passage of the Plume Chaser spacecraft. Especially in the case of Ceres, such a mission could be a great complimentary mission to Dawn, as well as a possible future Europa Clipper mission. The comparably small volume of the spacecraft enables a launch to GTO as a secondary payload, providing multiple launch opportunities per year. Plume Maker's design is nearly identical to the Plume Chaser, and fits within the constraints for a secondary payload launch. The cost-effectiveness of small spacecraft missions enables the exploration of multiple solar system bodies in reasonable timeframes despite budgetary constraints, with only minor adaptations. The work presented here is a summary of concepts targeting icy bodies, such as Europa and Ceres, which have been developed over the last year at NASA Ames Research Center's Mission Design Division. The platforms detailed in this work are also applicable to the cost-effective exploration of many other small icy bodies in the solar system

Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a risk prediction algorithm to estimate hospital admission and mortality outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in adults. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: QResearch database, comprising 1205 general practices in England with linkage to covid-19 test results, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. 6.08 million adults aged 19-100 years were included in the derivation dataset and 2.17 million in the validation dataset. The derivation and first validation cohort period was 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. The second temporal validation cohort covered the period 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was time to death from covid-19, defined as death due to confirmed or suspected covid-19 as per the death certification or death occurring in a person with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the period 24 January to 30 April 2020. The secondary outcome was time to hospital admission with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance, including measures of discrimination and calibration, was evaluated in each validation time period. RESULTS: 4384 deaths from covid-19 occurred in the derivation cohort during follow-up and 1722 in the first validation cohort period and 621 in the second validation cohort period. The final risk algorithms included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, and a range of comorbidities. The algorithm had good calibration in the first validation cohort. For deaths from covid-19 in men, it explained 73.1% (95% confidence interval 71.9% to 74.3%) of the variation in time to death (R2); the D statistic was 3.37 (95% confidence interval 3.27 to 3.47), and Harrell's C was 0.928 (0.919 to 0.938). Similar results were obtained for women, for both outcomes, and in both time periods. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted risks of death, the sensitivity for identifying deaths within 97 days was 75.7%. People in the top 20% of predicted risk of death accounted for 94% of all deaths from covid-19. CONCLUSION: The QCOVID population based risk algorithm performed well, showing very high levels of discrimination for deaths and hospital admissions due to covid-19. The absolute risks presented, however, will change over time in line with the prevailing SARS-C0V-2 infection rate and the extent of social distancing measures in place, so they should be interpreted with caution. The model can be recalibrated for different time periods, however, and has the potential to be dynamically updated as the pandemic evolves

Efficiency and safety of varying the frequency of whole blood donation (INTERVAL): a randomised trial of 45 000 donors

Background: Limits on the frequency of whole blood donation exist primarily to safeguard donor health. However, there is substantial variation across blood services in the maximum frequency of donations allowed. We compared standard practice in the UK with shorter inter-donation intervals used in other countries. Methods: In this parallel group, pragmatic, randomised trial, we recruited whole blood donors aged 18 years or older from 25 centres across England, UK. By use of a computer-based algorithm, men were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to 12-week (standard) versus 10-week versus 8-week inter-donation intervals, and women were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to 16-week (standard) versus 14-week versus 12-week intervals. Participants were not masked to their allocated intervention group. The primary outcome was the number of donations over 2 years. Secondary outcomes related to safety were quality of life, symptoms potentially related to donation, physical activity, cognitive function, haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and deferrals because of low haemoglobin. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN24760606, and is ongoing but no longer recruiting participants. Findings: 45 263 whole blood donors (22 466 men, 22 797 women) were recruited between June 11, 2012, and June 15, 2014. Data were analysed for 45 042 (99·5%) participants. Men were randomly assigned to the 12-week (n=7452) versus 10-week (n=7449) versus 8-week (n=7456) groups; and women to the 16-week (n=7550) versus 14-week (n=7567) versus 12-week (n=7568) groups. In men, compared with the 12-week group, the mean amount of blood collected per donor over 2 years increased by 1·69 units (95% CI 1·59–1·80; approximately 795 mL) in the 8-week group and by 0·79 units (0·69–0·88; approximately 370 mL) in the 10-week group (p<0·0001 for both). In women, compared with the 16-week group, it increased by 0·84 units (95% CI 0·76–0·91; approximately 395 mL) in the 12-week group and by 0·46 units (0·39–0·53; approximately 215 mL) in the 14-week group (p<0·0001 for both). No significant differences were observed in quality of life, physical activity, or cognitive function across randomised groups. However, more frequent donation resulted in more donation-related symptoms (eg, tiredness, breathlessness, feeling faint, dizziness, and restless legs, especially among men [for all listed symptoms]), lower mean haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and more deferrals for low haemoglobin (p<0·0001 for each) than those observed in the standard frequency groups. Interpretation: Over 2 years, more frequent donation than is standard practice in the UK collected substantially more blood without having a major effect on donors' quality of life, physical activity, or cognitive function, but resulted in more donation-related symptoms, deferrals, and iron deficiency. Funding: NHS Blood and Transplant, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, and British Heart Foundation

Gold-hyperdoped Germanium with Room-Temperature Sub-bandgap Optoelectronic Response

Hyperdoping germanium with gold is a potential method to produce room-temperature short-wavelength-infrared radiation (SWIR; 1.4–3.0μm) photodetection. We investigate the charge carrier dynamics, light absorption, and structural properties of gold-hyperdoped germanium (Ge:Au) fabricated with varying ion implantation and nanosecond pulsed laser melting conditions. Time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy (TRTS) measurements show that Ge:Au carrier lifetime is significantly higher than that in previously studied hyperdoped silicon systems. Furthermore, we find that lattice composition, sub-band-gap optical absorption, and carrier dynamics depend greatly on hyperdoping conditions. We use density functional theory (DFT) to model dopant distribution, electronic band structure, and optical absorption. These simulations help explain experimentally observed differences in optical and optoelectronic behavior across different samples. DFT modeling reveals that substitutional dopant incorporation has the lowest formation energy and leads to deep energy levels. In contrast, interstitial or dopant-vacancy complex incorporation yields shallower energy levels that do not contribute to sub-band-gap light absorption and have a small effect on charge carrier lifetimes. These results suggest that it is promising to tailor dopant incorporation sites of Ge:Au for SWIR photodetection applications