Agricultural Expansion, Openness to Trade and Deforestation at the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

The Brazilian Amazon is a large piece of land that hosts only 12% of Brazilian population. Even this low figure and people mostly living in urban areas, the overexploitation of the forest resources driven by economic activities seems to be out-of-control. In the 1970s, abundant government subsidies/incentives for mining, crop and beef production, and gigantic road projects provided infra-structure to the new settlers coming from other parts of the country. For the last decades, frontier regions of Amazon have been a major scene of land conflicts between farmers, squatters, miners, indigenous group and public authorities. Furthermore, from the openness of economy in the 1990s, we also find some evidence that the very attractive demand of international markets for timber, and recently, the attractive international prices of agricultural commodities are determinants that have been also pushing to more deforestation through the conversion of forest to new agricultural areas. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how international trade has affected the dynamics of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The analysis also focuses on the expansion of crop and cattle activities, and other determinants such as gross domestic product, demographic density and roads. To achieve such goal, we combine standard econometrics with the spatial econometrics in order to capture, across the space, the socio-economic interactions among the agents in their interrelated economic system. The data used in this study correspond to a balanced panel for 732 counties from 2000 to 2007 totalizing 6,256 observations. The main findings suggest that the openness to trade indicator used--export plus import over GDP--goes up, the result is more deforestation. We also find that beef cattle and the production of soybeans, sugarcane and cotton are pushing to more deforestation in the region. The extraction of firewood and timber had both a positive and significant in impact on deforestation, as expected. Moreover, as the GDP goes up, it pushes to more deforestation as well. On the other hand, as the square of GDP goes up indicate less deforestation, supporting, to some extent, the environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis.

Dynamic Bayesian smooth transition autoregressive models applied to hourly electricity load in southern Brazil

Dynamic Bayesian Smooth Transition Autoregressive (DBSTAR) models are proposed for nonlinear autoregressive time series processes as alternative to both the classical Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models of Chan and Tong (1986) and the Bayesian Simulation STAR (BSTAR) models of Lopes and Salazar (2005). Unlike those, DBSTAR models are sequential polynomial dynamic analytical models suitable for inherently non-stationary time series with non-linear characteristics such as asymmetric cycles. As they are analytical, they also avoid potential computational problems associated with BSTAR models and allow fast sequential estimation of parameters. Two types of DBSTAR models are defined here based on the method adopted to approximate the transition function of their autoregressive components, namely the Taylor and the B-splines DBSTAR models. A harmonic version of those models, that accounted for the cyclical component explicitly in a flexible yet parsimonious way, were applied to the well-known series of annual Canadian lynx trappings and showed improved fitting when compared to both the classical STAR and the BSTAR models. Another application to a long series of hourly electricity loading in southern Brazil, covering the period of the South-African Football World Cup in June 2010, illustrates the short-term forecasting accuracy of fast computing harmonic DBSTAR models that account for various characteristics such as periodic behaviour (both within-the-day and within-the-week) and average temperature

Openness to trade and deforestation at the Brazilian Amazon: a spatial econometric analysis

The Brazilian Amazon is a large piece of land that hosts only 12% of Brazilian population. Even this low figure and people mostly living in urban areas, the overexploitation of the forest resources driven by economic activities seems to be out-of-control. In the 1970s, abundant government subsidies/incentives for mining, crop and beef production, and gigantic road projects provided infra-structure to the new settlers coming from other parts of the country. For the last decades, frontier regions of Amazon have been a major scene of land conflicts between farmers, squatters, miners, indigenous group and public authorities. Furthermore, from the openness of economy in the 1990s, we also find some evidence that the very attractive demand of international markets for timber, and recently, the attractive international prices of agricultural commodities are determinants that have been also pushing to more deforestation through the conversion of forest to new agricultural areas. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how international trade has affected the dynamics of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The analysis also focuses on the expansion of crop and cattle activities, and other determinants such as gross domestic product, demographic density and roads. To achieve such goal, we combine standard econometrics with the spatial econometrics in order to capture, across the space, the socio-economic interactions among the agents in their interrelated economic system. The data used in this study correspond to a balanced panel for 732 counties from 2000 to 2007 totalizing 6,256 observations. The main findings suggest that the openness to trade indicator used--export plus import over GDP--goes up, the result is more deforestation. We also find that beef cattle and the production of soybeans, sugarcane and cotton are pushing to more deforestation in the region. The extraction of firewood and timber had both a positive and significant in impact on deforestation, as expected. Moreover, as the GDP goes up, it pushes to more deforestation as well. On the other hand, as the square of GDP goes up indicate less deforestation, supporting, to some extent, the environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis

Avaliação de QoS numa arquitectura Diffserv

Estabeleceu−se uma plataforma de teste com um encaminhador que implementa o paradigma Diffserv. O objectivo principal deste trabalho consistiu na implementação de uma plataforma com um encaminhador de tráfego, implementando o Diffserv. Este encaminhador fazia a admissão, classificação e re−classificação de tráfego, segundo algumas regras, encaminhando−o posteriormente de forma independente e consertada. Este encaminhador revelou que é possível fornecer serviços com qualidade recorrendo à implementação de classes de tráfego, cada uma com características específicas, de forma independente e sem interferências

Custos ecológicos : dilemas dacotonicultura em Mato Grosso

Este trabalho discute os dilemas ecológicos do capital aplicado na cotonicultura no estado de Mato Grosso, no Centro-Oeste do Brasil. O modelo tecnológico utilizado é o chamado de "revolução verde", que se inicia com corte raso da mata nativa e depois estabelece culturas dependentes de insumos químicos, que geram erosão, perda de nutrientes do solo e perda de funções ecossistêmicas. A perda da fertilidade natural força o uso cada vez maior de agrotóxicos e fertilizantes. A estagnação da produtividade da terra conjugada com a elevação dos custos do trabalho mecânico e dos insumos aumenta o custo de produção de algodão, gerando dúvidas sobre a capacidade de competição do ramo. É desta forma que se expressam os custos ecológicos na monocultura do algodão no trópico úmido. Este modelo tecnológico não apresenta sinais de evolução rumo a uma nova racionalidade produtiva agroecológica necessária para recuperar a estrutura e a funcionalidade dos ecossistemas naturais locais e a revitalizar os sistemas de cotonicultura da região.This paper discusses the ecological dilemmas of agrarian capital applied in cotton crops in MatoGrosso. The technological model used has generated strong homogenization of the environment, loss of nutrients in the soil and caused ecological imbalance that has pressed the application of capital in the form of pesticides and fertilizers. The stagnation in productivity of land coupled with the rising costs of pest control has raised the price of cotton, creating doubts about the competition ability of this cluster. The ecological costs involved in the cotton monoculture in the humid tropic can make unviable the present model. This model doesn't show signal of evolution to a new productive rationality capable to sustain the structure and function of ecosystems that support the techno-economic projects

Consumo de combustíveis no Brasil e Mato Grosso: estimativa do custo ecológico da emissão de gases de efeito estufa

<div align="justify">O principal objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar o nível da emissão de gases deefeito estufa (GEE) a partir do consumo de combustíveis fósseis e renováveis noBrasil e no estado de Mato Grosso entre os anos de 2003 e 2010. Uma vezreconhecido o quantum de emissão de GEE, calculou-se o custo ecológico destaemissão a partir dos preços da tonelada de carbono comercializada na BolsaEuropeia do Clima e na Bolsa do Clima de Chicago. A partir deste exercício,estimou-se o peso deste custo ecológico sobre o Produto Interno Bruto do Brasil ede Mato Grosso no período analisado, considerando hipoteticamente a incorporaçãodestes custos externos na matriz produtiva de ambas as referências espaciais.Utilizando a base de dados de consumo de combustíveis do Brasil e de Mato Grossoda Agência Nacional de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis, foi empregado oMétodo “Top-Down” ou método de referência do IPCC para estimar as emissões dedióxido de carbono. Atrelou-se o preço do carbono nas Bolsas da Europa e dosEstados Unidos à emissão de gases do efeito estufa, para se estimar os custosexternos, chamados aqui também de custos ecológicos. Os resultados mostram queos custos ecológicos estão tendendo a redução neste período, tanto pela contençãoda emissão de GEE frente ao PIB quanto pela tendência negativa dos preços docarbono nas bolsas internacionais.<br><br>Abstract The main objective of this study was to estimate the level of greenhouse gasesemission (GHG) from the consumption of fossil and renewable fuels in Brazil and inthe state of Mato Grosso between the years 2003 and 2010. Once recognized thequantum of GHG emission, was calculated the ecological cost of this emission asfrom the prices of the ton of carbon traded on the European Climate Exchange andon the Chicago Climate Exchange. From this exercise, was estimated the weight ofthis ecological cost on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Brazil and of MatoGrosso in the period analyzed, considering hypothetically the incorporation of theseexternal costs in the productive matrix of both the spatial references. Using thedatabase of fuel consumption in Brazil and Mato Grosso of the National Agency ofPetroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, we employed the method "Top Down" orIPCC’s reference method to estimate emissions of carbon dioxide. Attached the priceof the carbon in the exchanges of the Europe and of the United States to greenhousegases emission, to estimate the external costs, called here of the ecological costs.The results show that ecological costs are tending at reduction during this period,both by contention of the GHG emission compared to GDP as by the negative trendof the carbon prices in the international exchanges.</div

Gestão de repositórios de preservação digital

The object of this work are the international experiences of implementation of digital preservation practices in repositories. It based on bibliographical survey about the beginning of digital preservation practices in digital repositories, identifying important aspects of how to manage the practices of digital preservation on repositories. Most repositories analyzed showed a double function of access and preservation, but few could be considered to be "dark archives" used only for preservation matters. The application of digital preservation standards showed that large institutions possessed detailed definitions of what stored materials could be filed and used. Repositories managers had some kind of operating budget to carry on preservation activities. Most repositories cited in the bibliography used a combination of commercial tools and free software. As a conclusion, the records analyzed reinforce the need today of the application of digital preservation strategies using the OAIS Reference Model and official audit certification actions on the design of digital preservation repositories, to keep the integration flexibility of functions and services that go beyond the repository