Analysis and Forecasting of Population Mortality and Life Lost Trend due to Lung Cancer among Xiamen Residents

背景与目的近年来肺癌发病率和死亡率不断上升,已成为我国恶性肿瘤的首位死因。本研究旨在探讨厦门市居民肺癌死亡和减寿的变化趋势,以期为厦门市肺癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2005年-2014年厦门市居民肺癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(average potential life lost,AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2005年-2014年,厦门市居民肺癌死亡率28.58/10万,年均上升4.86%,男性死亡率是女性的2.90倍;AYLL为7.8年,存在下降趋势。GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.16%-8.83%,预测2015年-2019年肺癌死亡率和AYLL值均有所上升。结论厦门市肺癌死亡率逐年升高,未来肺癌死亡率和人均减寿数都有上升趋势,应重视肺癌的预防控制工作。Background and objective In recent years, the incidence and mortality of lung cancer is rising. It has become the leading cause of death of malignant tumors in China. The aim of this study is to explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to lung cancer in residents in Xiamen, so as to provide the basis data on preventing lung cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of lung cancer from 2005 to 2014 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost(AYLL), and the average percentage change(APC) of mortality rate. GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results From 2005 to 2014, the average mortality rate of lung cancer in residents in Xiamen was 28.58 per 100,000 persons, of which in male was 2.90 times as that in female. The APC was 4.86%. The AYLL, which was 7.8 years, had decline trend from 2005 to 2014. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 2.16%-8.83%. The mortality rate and AYLL of lung cancer in residents in Xiamen would increase from 2015 to 2019. Conclusion The mortality of lung cancer increased year by year in Xiamen. There are both increasing trend of mortality and years of life lost in future. So we should pay more attentions on preventing and curing of lung cancer.福建省卫生厅青年科研课题(No.2014-2-78)资助~

Tendency of death and life reduction from nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City

目的探讨厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡和减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市鼻咽癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2010-2014年厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2010-2014年,厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡率2.27/10万,男性死亡率是女性的2.83倍。鼻咽癌造成的AYLL为16.95年。厦门市鼻咽癌死亡率能拟合出GM(1,1)模型,预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.90%~8.32%间,无法拟合AYLL的预测模型。预测2015-2017年鼻咽癌死亡率略有下降。结论 GM(1,1)模型可用于厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡率的预测,鼻咽癌仍是造成厦门市居民早死的重要原因,不能放松鼻咽癌的预防控制工作。Objective To explore the changing trend of death and years of life loss due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City so as to provide evidence for its comprehensive prevention and control. Methods The data about residents dying of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen City during 2010-2014 were collected and cleared up to calculate the mortality rate,the average years of life loss( AYLL) and the average annual percentage change( APC) of mortality rate,etc. GM( 1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results The mortality rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City during 2010-2014 was 2.27 / 100,000,and the mortality rate of males was 2.83 times that of females. The AYLL due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma was 16.95 years. All mortality rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen City could fit out the GM( 1,1) model,but the AYLL could not. The mean absolute percent errors between the simulated values and the observed values were 2.90%-8.32%. The mortality rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from 2015 to 2017 were predicted to be decreased slightly.Conclusions The GM( 1,1) model can be used for forecasting the mortality rate due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is still an important cause of premature death among residents in Xiamen City; and hence,more attention should be paid to its prevention and control.福建省卫生厅青年科研课题(2014-2-78

Prediction of Mortality and Years of Life Lost due to Liver Cancer in Residents in Xiamen

目的探讨厦门市居民肝癌死亡的变化趋势,为厦门市肝癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2004-2013年厦门市居民肝癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2004-2013年,厦门市居民因肝癌死亡率31.95/10万,年均下降2.0%,男性死亡率是女性的3.81倍;AYLL为16.74年,存在下降趋势。GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.27%~3.71%,预测2014-2018年肝癌死亡率和AYLL值均有所下降。结论 GM(1,1)模型可用于厦门市居民肝癌死亡率和减寿趋势预测,未来肝癌死亡虽有下降趋势,但仍呈高位态势,仍要重视肝癌的预防控制工作。Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to liver cancer in residents in Xiamen,so as to provide the basis data on preventing liver cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of liver cancer from 2004 to 2013 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost( AYLL), and the average percentage change( APC) of mortality rate. GM( 1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results From 2004 to 2013, the average mortality rate of liver cancer in residents in Xiamen was 31. 95 per 100000 persons.,of which in male was 3. 81 times as that in female. The APC was 2. 0%. The AYLL,which was16. 74 years,had decline trend from 2004 to 2013. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 2. 27%- 3. 71%. The mortality rate and AYLL of liver cancer in residents in Xiamen would decrease from 2014 to 2018.Conclusion GM( 1,1) model could be used to forecast the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to liver cancer in residents in Xiamen. Though there is descending trend of mortality and years of life lost in future, the value of mortality is still high.So we still have to pay more attentions on preventing and curing of liver cancer

Deapartment of Pathogenic Biochemistry

I.癌および癌転移の抑止に関する基礎的研究1)癌および癌転移の抑制物質の探索(伝統薬物を中心に)2)癌の悪性化・進展モデルの確立とその分子機序の解析3)癌ワクチンを指向した免疫遺伝療法の開発と免疫力増強物質の検索4)同所移植性転移モデルにおける転移の臓器特異(選択)性とその機序の解析5)細胞接着の制御に基づく浸潤・転移の抑制6)基底膜分解酵素の転写・産生・分解レベルでの阻害物質の探索II.免疫抑制に関する基礎的研究1)アレルギー性/炎症性疾患モデルの確立と有効物質(抑制/増強)の探索2)免疫応答調節機構解明と和漢薬への応用III.細胞の機能制御とシグナル伝達機構の解析1)自己分泌型運動抑制因子の単離・精製とその構造解析2)細胞運動と細胞内調節分子の関連性の解析3)神経ペプチドによる細胞浸潤の制御と細胞内機能分子の関与この論文は国立情報学研究所の学術雑誌公開支援事業により電子化されまし