目的探讨厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡和减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市鼻咽癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2010-2014年厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2010-2014年,厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡率2.27/10万,男性死亡率是女性的2.83倍。鼻咽癌造成的AYLL为16.95年。厦门市鼻咽癌死亡率能拟合出GM(1,1)模型,预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.90%~8.32%间,无法拟合AYLL的预测模型。预测2015-2017年鼻咽癌死亡率略有下降。结论 GM(1,1)模型可用于厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡率的预测,鼻咽癌仍是造成厦门市居民早死的重要原因,不能放松鼻咽癌的预防控制工作。Objective To explore the changing trend of death and years of life loss due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City so as to provide evidence for its comprehensive prevention and control. Methods The data about residents dying of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen City during 2010-2014 were collected and cleared up to calculate the mortality rate,the average years of life loss( AYLL) and the average annual percentage change( APC) of mortality rate,etc. GM( 1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results The mortality rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City during 2010-2014 was 2.27 / 100,000,and the mortality rate of males was 2.83 times that of females. The AYLL due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma was 16.95 years. All mortality rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen City could fit out the GM( 1,1) model,but the AYLL could not. The mean absolute percent errors between the simulated values and the observed values were 2.90%-8.32%. The mortality rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from 2015 to 2017 were predicted to be decreased slightly.Conclusions The GM( 1,1) model can be used for forecasting the mortality rate due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is still an important cause of premature death among residents in Xiamen City; and hence,more attention should be paid to its prevention and control.福建省卫生厅青年科研课题(2014-2-78
