164 research outputs found

    Dividends, trust, and firm value

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    We find evidence that investors value dividends differently depending on their level of trust. Our tests indicate that investor demand for dividend-paying stocks increases as trust decreases, and that this relationship affects market values. We begin with survey evidence showing that people think accounting fraud is less likely among dividend payers and that people with low trust are more likely to hold dividend-paying stocks. We then empirically exploit accounting fraud discoveries within a mutual fund’s portfolio as a shock to trust. In response to these shocks, we show that mutual funds tilt their portfolios toward dividend-paying stocks. This result is not explained by a shift in risk preferences, indicating that these institutional investors are seeking dividends in particular rather than stable firms that just happen to pay dividends. Finally, we provide evidence that dividend payers experience a premium in their market values relative to non-payers when their investor base becomes less trusting

    Nonparametric Double EWMA Control Chart for Process Monitoring

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    In monitoring process parameters, we assume normality of the quality characteristic of interest, which is an ideal assumption. In many practical situations, we may not know the distributional behavior of the data, and hence, the need arises use nonparametric techniques. In this study, a nonparametric double EWMA control chart, namely the NPDEWMA chart, is proposed to ensure efficient monitoring of the location parameter. The performance of the proposed chart is evaluated in terms of different run length properties, such as average, standard deviation and percentiles. The proposed scheme is compared with its recent existing counterparts, namely the nonparametric EWMA and the nonparametric CUSUM schemes. The performance measures used are the average run length (ARL), standard deviation of the run length (SDRL) and extra quadratic loss (EQL). We observed that the proposed chart outperforms the said existing schemes to detect shifts in the process mean level. We also provide an illustrative example for practical considerations.En el seguimiento de los parámetros del proceso, asumimos normalidadde la característica de calidad de interés que es un supuesto ideal. En muchas situaciones prácticas, no podemos conocer el comportamiento de distribución de los datos y por lo tanto, surge la necesidad de técnicas no paramétricas. En este estudio, un gráfico de control EWMA doble paramétrico, a saber, la carta NPDEWMA, se propone para una vigilancia eficaz en el parámetro de localización. El rendimiento del gráfico propuesto se evalúa en términos de propiedades diferentes de longitud de ejecución, como promedio, desviación estándar y percentiles. El esquema propuesto se compara con sus homólogos de los últimos existentes, a saber, la EWMA no paramétrico y los esquemas de CUSUM no paramétricas. Las medidas de desempeño utilizadas son la longitud promedio de carreras (ARL), la desviación estándar de la longitud de ejecución (SDRL) y pérdida cuadrática extra (EQL). Se observa que el gráfico propuesto supera a dichos regímenes existentes para detectar cambios en el proceso de nivel medio. También se proporciona un ejemplo ilustrativo para consideraciones prácticas

    Earnings announcement return extrapolation

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    We propose that extrapolative beliefs about earnings announcement (EA) returns may contribute to our understanding of EA return patterns. We construct a theoretically-motivated measure of extrapolative investors’ expectations based on a stock’s recent history of EA returns. We then show that this measure explains cross-sectional variation in stock returns and investor behavior around EAs. Stocks expected to have high EA returns according to our measure experience predictable increases in prices before EAs and predictable decreases afterwards. These patterns are economically significant: investors that buy (sell) a portfolio that is long firms with high recent EA returns and short firms with low recent EA returns in the pre-EA (post-EA) period earn daily five-factor abnormal returns of 16.1 bps (18.3 bps). Using individual investor trades data and a measure of institutional trading, we find that individual and institutional investors are more likely to purchase stocks with high recent EA returns, consistent with at least a subset of investors forming extrapolative beliefs about EA returns

    Guaranteed Conditional Performance of Control Charts via Bootstrap Methods

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    To use control charts in practice, the in-control state usually has to be estimated. This estimation has a detrimental effect on the performance of control charts, which is often measured for example by the false alarm probability or the average run length. We suggest an adjustment of the monitoring schemes to overcome these problems. It guarantees, with a certain probability, a conditional performance given the estimated in-control state. The suggested method is based on bootstrapping the data used to estimate the in-control state. The method applies to different types of control charts, and also works with charts based on regression models, survival models, etc. If a nonparametric bootstrap is used, the method is robust to model errors. We show large sample properties of the adjustment. The usefulness of our approach is demonstrated through simulation studies.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure
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