Risk adjusted asset valuation using a probabilistic approach with optimized asking rents and resale timing options

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.The model developed here provides an enhancement of the traditional DCF asset acquisition valuation template, in Excel. It provides a relatively transparent and user-friendly yet flexible risk-adjusted valuation of a subject individual acquisition, structured to consider the asset either as a core asset or a value-add asset. This study applies a basic stock flow model of space market dynamics to address the question of covariance among input variables. The model is designed with optional probabilistic inputs and historical data for the local space market (employment, rents, net rentable area, occupied space, new completions, vacancy and absorption) and the asset market (cap rates history) to produce a 15-year forecast for the relevant space and asset market for the subject property. An optional optimal rent module in the model uses the forecasted cap rates and consequent opportunity cost of capital to arrive at optimal asking rents for the subject property. The existing rent roll is combined with the future rents and vacancies along with asset level projections of operating costs and capital expenditures to arrive at the cash flow projections. Renewal probability and probability to lease up are major differentiating factors between the core and value add asset. The model also enables the user to optionally consider how flexibility in resale timing can improve the overall return performance from a probabilistic perspective. The output of the model includes an apprehension of the entire going-in risk return relationship, depicted relative to a relevant security market line generated by the input risk free interest rate and the opportunity cost of capital in the relevant asset market. Key words: Probabilistic, risk adjusted valuation, forecast, optimal rent, flexibility, renewal probability, probability to lease up.by Sarwesh Paradkar.S.M.in Real Estate Developmen

Understanding reservoir mechanisms using phase and component streamline tracing

Conventionally streamlines are traced using total flux across the grid cell faces. The visualization of total flux streamlines shows the movement of flood, injector-producer relationship, swept area and movement of tracer. But they fail to capture some important signatures of reservoir dynamics, such as dominant phase in flow, appearance and disappearance of phases (e.g. gas), and flow of components like CO2. In the work being presented, we demonstrate the benefits of visualizing phase and component streamlines which are traced using phase and component fluxes respectively. Although the phase and component streamlines are not appropriate for simulation, as they might be discontinuous, they definitely have a lot of useful information about the reservoir processes and recovery mechanisms. In this research, phase and component streamline tracing has been successfully implemented in three-phase and compositional simulation and the additional information obtained using these streamlines have been explored. The power and utility of the phase and component streamlines have been demonstrated using synthetic examples and two field cases. The new formulation of streamline tracing provides additional information about the reservoir drive mechanisms. The phase streamlines capture the dominant phase in flow in different parts of the reservoir and the area swept corresponding to different phases can be identified. Based on these streamlines the appearance and disappearance of phases can be identified. Also these streamlines can be used for optimizing the field recovery processes like water injection and location of infill wells. Using component streamlines the movement of components like CO2 can be traced, so they can be used for optimizing tertiary recovery mechanisms and tracking of tracers. They can also be used to trace CO2 in CO2 sequestration project where the CO2 injection is for long term storage in aquifers or reservoirs. They have also other potential uses towards study of reservoir processes and behavior such as drainage area mapping for different phases, phase rate allocations to reservoir layers, etc

Advanced Impingement Cooling with Novel Surface Features

In the present study four novel surface features have been investigated to study the effects on the heat transfer performance in a narrow rectangular jet impingement channel with channel height–to-jet diameter ratio H/D = 2. The features studied are non-spherical dimples on target plate, chevron elements extending the full channel height, 90o ribs and 45o wedges on the jet issuing plate. The transient liquid crystal technique was used to measure the heat transfer coefficient on the impingement plate at four different Reynolds numbers ranging from 61,000 to 97,000. The experimental results were compared to the numerical results obtained through steady state CFD analysis performed using a commercially available software, ANSYS CFX 14.0. The numerical results qualitatively agreed with the heat transfer distribution obtained through experiments, however, the SST turbulence model overpredicted the heat transfer coefficients. It was observed that the configuration with 45o wedges on the jet issuing plate has the highest heat transfer enhancement among all tested configurations. The dimples and the chevrons offered some restriction to the spreading of the impinging jets which prevented these features from providing expected enhancement. However, each dimple had a high local heat transfer in spanwise averaged heat transfer at the edges. The full height chevron elements did not improve the total averaged heat transfer but the deflection of the jets due to crossflow was minimized. In case of the configurations with 45o wedges and 90o ribs installed on the jet issuing plates, heat transfer enhancement was observed in the downstream side of the last jet. This was because of improved convection caused by diversion of the crossflow towards the target plate

Causality between Sentiment and Cryptocurrency Prices

This study investigates the relationship between narratives conveyed through microblogging platforms, namely Twitter, and the value of crypto assets. Our study provides a unique technique to build narratives about cryptocurrency by combining topic modelling of short texts with sentiment analysis. First, we used an unsupervised machine learning algorithm to discover the latent topics within the massive and noisy textual data from Twitter, and then we revealed 4-5 cryptocurrency-related narratives, including financial investment, technological advancement related to crypto, financial and political regulations, crypto assets, and media coverage. In a number of situations, we noticed a strong link between our narratives and crypto prices. Our work connects the most recent innovation in economics, Narrative Economics, to a new area of study that combines topic modelling and sentiment analysis to relate consumer behaviour to narratives

A Bibliometric analysis of the literature of IFLA Journal during 2001-2010

Bibliometric is an emerging thrust area of research and has now become a well established part of information research and a quantitative approach to the description of documents. Bibliometric has grown out of the realization that literature is growing and changing out of a rate with which no librarian or information worker equipped with traditional bibliographic skills and methods could keep abreast. The present study shows that journals are most cited form of communication amongst the library and information scientists and the source journal is the most cited publication. IFLA Journal is one of the premier official journals of the International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions. It is brought out by Sage publications. It has just completed 37 years of its publication. The study aims to present a bibliometric analysis on the various aspects of the Journal, such as its distribution of article by year, authorship patterns, distribution of contributions by institution, subject distributions, citation patterns, length of article, rank of cited authors, and geographical distributions of authors

Academic Library Websites in Rajasthan: an analysis of Content

Services are the most growing and the fast changing segment of academic libraries nowadays. Survey of web sites of 52 academic, libraries, i.e. government, deemed self-financed universities and research centres libraries of Rajasthan based on 133-item checklist. The purpose of this paper is to investigate library web sites in Rajasthan, to analyse their content and navigational strengths and weaknesses and to give recommendations for developing better web sites and quality assessment studies

Advanced Geometries by Additive Manufacturing and Topology Optimization for Internal Cooling of Gas Turbine Airfoil

In the past few decades, the growth in the ability of materials to retain strength at high temperatures has occurred remarkably slower than the rise in combustion temperature in gas turbine engines. With an aim to attain overall cycle efficiency of 65% in the next few years, the gas turbine inlet temperature is slated to reach in excess of 1700o C. As a result, there is a need to identify innovative and more effective cooling technologies for the hot gas path components, such as airfoils, to maintain them within their working thermal envelope. The presented research developed and demonstrated that advanced lattice geometries fabricated by direct metal laser sintering (DMLS) based additive manufacturing (AM) process could be effectively used in the cooling of gas turbine airfoils. The effect of unit cell topology, ligament diameter, and orientation with respect to fluid flow on the aerothermal performance of these geometries was investigated. In addition, a new type of integrated cooling architecture was also developed by combining AM fabricated transpiration and lattice geometries. This architecture could simultaneously provide external and internal cooling to the airfoils while also alleviating the harmful effects of pore blockage, which is a limiting factor with transpiration-based cooling. Three state-of-the-art experimental techniques and detailed numerical analysis were utilized to characterize the performance of these geometries. Finally, a new topology optimization (TO) method based on second law analysis was proposed to optimize the overall aerothermal performance of lattice geometries. Within this method, the relative strength of heat transfer and dissipative losses was calculated using local entropy generation rates. A set of criteria was proposed to precisely isolate high-dissipation fluid regions and modify them to suppress form-losses and improve local heat transfer, yielding the optimized topology. The proposed TO method presented several advantages: 1) the method could be implemented as a post-process script, thus eliminating the need for a custom solver, 2) optimization could be performed on prespecified geometries in a high Reynolds number flow, and 3) it provided a quantitative insight into the best operating point for a given geometry in terms of inlet flow conditions

Measuring effect at the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets

In deze bijdrage beschrijven de auteurs hoe de AFM effectmetingen wil stimuleren en faciliteren. Vooral de effectprijs en de module effectmeting in een interne opleiding lijken succesvol. Andere toezichthouders kunnen mogelijk leren van de ervaringen bij de AFM